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Chicago Cubs: Without Javier Baez, they have no chance to make magical run
Javy Baez has been the emotional and statistical leader of the Chicago Cubs for the last two seasons. With Baez now out with a fractured thumb, it’s doubtful the Cubs will be playing meaningful baseball in October.
You wouldn’t think the Chicago Cubs and the Antonio Brown saga would share any kind of similarities this week, but they do. Actually… unfortunately, they do. They’re both live look-ins at the manic nature of professional sports (and its fans) and how quickly things can change. Thursday afternoon, all seemed perfect in the Cubs’ world.
Two starters were back from an extended time away from the team, and another was purportedly coming back after sitting a couple of games. With the Cubs releasing their best lineup of the season pregame, positivity reigned supreme. By Saturday night, everything had changed. It happened so fast; it’s hard even to process what the heck just happened.
Raiders fans can probably commiserate.
When word came back that Javier Baez had a clean X-Ray following the game in which he hurt his left thumb (sliding into second on a steal) one week ago, Cubs’ fans breathed a collective sigh of relief. When he was scratched from the most exciting lineup of 2019 on Thursday night because he couldn’t complete batting practice without pain, there may have been a collective groan, but it could have just been a minor sprain or tweak that was flaring up. When the news came out yesterday after that Baez had suffered a hairline fracture, many fans took some rather large steps to edge ever so close to that ledge that many (including the worst) fans have already vacated.
Chicago Cubs: This guy has been rather decent the past two years
Why would fans work their way closer to the proverbial ledge, you ask? For starters, Baez has been the best Cubs player the past two seasons, amassing 9.7 fWAR in the process. A distant 6.6 fWAR over those two seasons is the next closest combined total, put up by the trio of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Hendricks.
Baez is also now the Cubs shortstop, a position he has manned better than almost everyone in baseball this season. More recently, he was named the best defender in baseball during August by Sports Info Solutions, the same guys who give out the Fielding Bible Awards every postseason.
He usurped the position from 2017, and 2018 incumbent shortstop, Addison Russell after off-field issues and suspensions made it clear that Baez needed to move to his natural position from second base (which he also manned exceptionally well).
In terms of the impact you can’t quantify, look no further than Willson Contreras (who just came back from his IL stint) who pulled no punches in saying, “Javy is the heart of the team.”
In other words, the Cubs just lost their most productive, most defensively-gifted, and most intangible player for the rest of the season down 3.5 games to the Cardinals with 21 games remaining. Not optimal.
The question now becomes: where do we go from here?
Chicago Cubs: Not the guy most fans want at shortstop every day
Based on Joe Maddon‘s early remarks, there can be only one choice. Unlike Duncan McLeod of Highlander fame though, the man is not exactly popular with fans. Addison Russell will ostensibly take over duties as acting starting shortstop, and it’s altogether possible that he will play almost every inning there for the rest of the regular season if indeed Baez is out that long.
Sure, the Cubs could give Russell an off day and put David Bote at short, but Bote isn’t a shortstop, and that’s not something you want to do in the middle of a pennant race in September. Ditto for Ben Zobrist and Daniel Descalso, who have both played short before in their career but aren’t shortstops at this point.
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Russell is the only choice because he’s the only competent shortstop on the Cubs’ big league squad right now, and it’s not even close. In fact, he had been one of the best defensive shortstops in all of baseball before his off-field issues caught fire last season. Unfortunately, he hasn’t looked like that guy this season, and he has had a costly error in each game of the Brewers’ series since taking over for Baez. His error last night in the ninth ultimately became the game-winning run in a 3-2 loss for the Cubs.
Russell has shown some pop while with the Cubs this season, belting nine home runs in 228 PA, including the Cubs only run off Gio Gonzalez last night. However, other than occasional home runs, Russell is a major downgrade from the slugging Baez. Despite a slump that brought his OPS down considerably to .848, Baez maintains a .171 cushion over Russell’s .677 OPS. Russell won’t be the guy that Baez has been in the heart of the Cubs order, but hopefully, the return of Willson Contreras and Ben Zobrist will nullify the loss.
Chicago Cubs: Tag. You’re it.
With Russell taking over for Baez, there’s an ominous sense of dread hanging over fans’ heads. Not just because Russell isn’t as good as Baez, but because he’s not the same player. He’s not the same person. He is the guy who paid child support with quarters and loses his bat into the stands on a regular basis. Baez is the guy who pops bubbles while batting and does magical swim moves to score when there is no chance of him scoring. One is magical, and the other is well, not.
I do not doubt that Russell can play a competent or even excellent shortstop for the rest of the season because we’ve all seen him do it before. What I do doubt, however, is if he can help guide the Cubs to the postseason or put the team on his back with his bat and positive energy.
That bat and energy- that’s exactly what this team desperately needs right now. They need a little bit of a miracle as they head down the stretch and attempt to escape the looming certainty of a Wild Card date with Max Scherzer. They may even need a minor miracle to get to that game. Scratch that- what they need is not a miracle. They need some magic. Alas, pending a miracle of healing, El Mago won’t be there to wave his magic bat.
Next. Should the Cubs trade Kris Bryant?. dark
The Cubs have been dealing with injuries to some of their best players all season with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, and Kimbrel all dealing with injuries at some point in 2019. For most of the year, they were able to stay in or around first place in the NL Central and keep their heads above water. This one is different though, and unless they catch lightning in a bottle with other guys or the team as a whole, it’s going to be extremely difficult to overcome the loss of the most exciting player in baseball.