Chicago Cubs: This winter should provide financial clarity
One of the frustrations for Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline has been attempting to make substantial upgrades to the roster despite a number of budgetary constraints.
The absence of financial flexibility was one of the reasons that the Chicago Cubs were relatively inactive this winter. And that shadow still seems to loom large over the organization heading into the final couple months of the 2019 season.
It is a frustrating reality to have to accept that payroll concerns are dictating Chicago’s potential to improve as a ball club. At the same time, owner Tom Ricketts indeed approved a record payroll that reaches almost $230 million this season.
There are arguments to be made on both sides. The Boston Red Sox won a World Series in part because of their willingness to go over the luxury tax last season. But not every owner is comfortable with the possibility of paying a perpetual penalty.
What is clear, however, is that the Cubs will have a new level of financial freedom this winter, with the potential to shake things up.
Chicago Cubs: Several players set to be free agents
For starters, the Cubs have several players on the roster that are on expiring contracts this season.
Part of the reason that the Cubs picked up Cole Hamels‘ option in the offseason had to do with the knowledge that he would be off the books after 2019. That opens up $20 million this winter.
Ben Zobrist will also be a free agent after this season. He is a good candidate to hang up the cleats anyway–particularly with everything that has happened in his personal life. But the Cubs likely would not re-sign him unless he took a one-year deal at a steep discount.
The bullpen offers the most opportunity for financial flexibility. Epstein may not have made big “splashes” this season, but he did well to take on contracts that afford the Cubs with options.
Both Derek Holland and David Phelps have team options for next season. So does Brad Brach, who has been incredibly underwhelming as the marquee addition in the bullpen this year.
Additionally, the Cubs will have multiple unrestricted free agents in Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler.
Strop is having his worst year as a member of the Cubs, but he is unquestionably one of the best relief pitchers in franchise history. Cishek and Kintzler have been two of the more effective arms in the bullpen this season. But there is still a high chance of turnover, as there is almost every season.
Chicago Cubs: What will they do with Quintana, Morrow?
One of the more underrated aspects of this upcoming winter could be whether or not the Cubs decide to retain Jose Quintana and Brandon Morrow.
Epstein got extremely aggressive when he traded top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the Chicago White Sox to acquire Quintana before the deadline in 2017. Since then, Quintana has been mostly mediocre on the North Side.
In 66 starts, Quintana sports a 4.10 ERA. Although his K/9 has increased since coming to the Cubs, he is also giving up more home runs, and his walk rate has increased as well.
Meanwhile, Morrow’s situation is wholly different, albeit just as frustrating. After signing with the Cubs in December of2017, Morrow was lights-out as Chicago’s closer in the first half of the 2018 season.
However, he has not thrown a single inning in over a year, and there is a reason to believe that Morrow will not return this season either.
Both players have team options for 2020 and will be owed close to $25 million combined. It is not reasonable to think that the Cubs could decline at least one–if not both–club options to free up payroll.
Quintana has been mostly underwhelming, and Morrow’s injury history is extremely grim. Why spend $25 million on two players that have combined for just over 4.0 fWAR in the last two years?
Chicago Cubs: Another big splash coming?
At present, the Cubs have $114.1 million on the books for 2020. That number will increase after they pick up Anthony Rizzo‘s option and dole out fairly hefty arbitration money to Kris Bryant and Javier Baez.
However, Epstein and the Cubs could be significant players this winter, mainly if they free up that $25 million otherwise allotted to Quintana and Morrow.
The impending free-agent class is not quite as good as it was before Spring Training, with names like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt locked up with extensions.
Still, there are names for the Cubs to consider. Maybe they make a play for Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon while moving Bryant to the outfield.
Or, perhaps Epstein replaces Hamels and Quintana with Houston Astros ace Gerrit Cole, who is in the midst of a Cy Young-caliber season and will undoubtedly command a hefty contract this winter.
Alternatively, the front office might elect to free up money and splurge on a number of quality bats and bullpen arms, evoking a different kind of team makeover.
Regardless of what the Cubs may or may not do this winter, however, there are plenty of avenues that would lead to greater financial flexibility for a busy winter.