Chicago Cubs: Bullpen actually isn’t this team’s Achilles’ Heel
Despite obvious issues due to injury and overwork, the Chicago Cubs bullpen isn’t this team’s biggest weakness. It’s been the inability to hit with men on.
The Chicago Cubs enter June 2 at 31-25. They were in first place in the NL Central until a suffering a loss to the Redbirds in the wee hours of the morning on Sunday following a three-plus hour rain delay.
Despite issues with the starting rotation, bullpen, defense and offense at different points in time during the first two months of the 2019 season, the Cubs have managed to do better than tread water, at times looking like a serious contender to return to the World Series. Unfortunately, at times, they’ve also looked like a team that may succumb to the same issues that torpedoed a possible fourth straight trip to the NLCS last year.
So, who’s to blame for this Jekyll and Hyde act at Clark and Addison?
The short answer is no one in particular. To some, the easy answer is the bullpen – a source of contention and fan focus since the end of last season. However, that would be a bit lazy, as injuries and overwork have created a pen that relies on guys in the wrong spots rather than optimizing relievers where they’d shine. It also isn’t entirely their fault even when they do give up a run, as a razor-thin margin late in the game isn’t always going to result in a win, even with Mariano Rivera trotting out there (even Mo gave up over two runs for every nine innings he pitched).
The right answer is one simple stat: hitting with runners in scoring position. How the Cubs hit with runners in scoring position has been an issue throughout this entire competitive window. Even in their 2016 World Series run, gripes and complaints reared their ugly head constantly about the Cubs’ inability to drive runners in from second or third with less than two outs. In short, it isn’t a new problem.
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber has been among hitters to struggle with RISP
In 2019, the Cubs have had two different long (seemingly endless to fans and players, no doubt) stretches where they’ve gone hitless with runners in scoring position. They had a stretch from May 9 through May 12 where they were 0-for-28 with RISP, and then this most recent streak (through Friday night) at 0-for-25. According to Elias (through Jesse Rogers), the Cubs are the only MLB team to have two such streaks this year.
While it’s also a product of getting so many guys on base, they’re also eighth-worst (all stats going into Saturday night, unless otherwise noted) in baseball in terms of total runners left on per game, at 14.78 by individual and 7.38 per game as a team (third-worst in baseball).
That means that while they’re getting lots of runners on base, they’re leaving a small village on base every single game, whether you count by individual player not coming through when it’s their turn, or as a team leaving runners standing on base to end an inning.
As noted, the Cubs have struggled through an awful stretch with runners in scoring position the past week that saw them go 0-for-25, but also bookend that with a 1-for-5 against the Reds last Sunday and a 1-for-4 Saturday night against the Cardinals. The hit that broke this latest streak, by the way, was a bunt single by Daniel Descalso that luckily got by Andrew Miller but didn’t score anyone, as it loaded the bases before Kris Bryant‘s fielder’s choice scored one (not on a hit). Not exactly a confidence-inspiring breakout.
Chicago Cubs: That’s what most of us want to do when the Cubs lose
As bad as the hitless streaks have been, they don’t even tell the full story of how anemic Cubs’ hitters have been of late with runners in scoring position. In fact, this season has basically been the tale of two campaigns, with the last 24 games showing a colossal disparity from the first 32.
In the last two dozen games, the Cubs have managed just a .170 average with runners in scoring position, which is about what you would expect sending Yu Darvish up there to swing every time a man is standing on second or third. Oh wait, Darvish did drive in the only run on Friday night on a SAC fly.
Those last 24 (since the Cubs drubbed the Cardinals at Wrigley, outscoring them 23-to-10 in a three-game set) have seen the Cubs struggle mightily offensively, putting up some crazy bad numbers. Among them are the fact that they were a mediocre 12-12 (now a below .500 12-13 after last night’s delay lengthened game), only scored 4.4 runs per game, and put up that .170 RISP average. Chicago was also scoring most of their runs (60 percent) via the home run during that stretch, something they continued early in the game on Saturday night as Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward each took turns blasting solo shots.
Joe Maddon even admitted there was an issue when he talked with Jordan Bastian, saying as much after Friday night’s rough walk-off loss.
“We need to do a better job driving in runs. We wouldn’t be in that position in the end.”
While many looked at Laz Diaz’s questionable umpiring late in the game, Maddon’s point was that it shouldn’t have even come to that (although he did a little bit more than question Diaz on the Dillon Maples‘ 3-2 slider to Harrison Bader that looked like an easy strike call).
Despite their extreme struggles of late, the Cubs are still only middle of the pack for the entire year in terms of number of runners left in scoring position per game, at 3.49 runners per game (16th in MLB), so maybe that’s something to hold on to as this has to bottom out at some point, right?
Chicago Cubs: Hope springs eternal in this great game
Baseball is one of the best sports for burying the past. Aren’t happy with your last pitch? Throw a better one. Aren’t happy with your last at-bat? Have a better one two innings later. Lost a game? Win tomorrow. Even if things are going poorly for a team or a player, a hot streak or winning streak could be right around the corner.
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Regardless of the RISP woes, the Chicago Cubs are still one of the best offensive clubs in baseball by just about any measure. They hit, they walk, they work at-bats, they hit home runs and score runs at a really high rate. If you’re an optimistic fan, it’s not hard to convince yourself that the Cubs’ woes with RISP are just an aberration over the course of a really long 162 game season.
The Cubs lead baseball with 4.29 walks drawn per game and also lead baseball in being hit by pitch. They are third in on-base percentage with a .345 OBP.
The truly scary thing is, despite those horrific streaks where it seems no one can hit the broad side of a barn, the Cubs still rank seventh in all of baseball in runs scored per game, at 5.25.
If you’re looking for hope and don’t want to look too far to find it, look no further than Chicago’s own hitting earlier this season. To start the year (the first 32 games), the team hit .284 with RISP and looked like a juggernaut. Those players are still playing and the ability is still in there; it’s just a matter of waiting for the next heatwave.
Rather than be a Debbie Downer, I’d like to think the Cubs are too good to look this bad for much longer with RISP. With a couple of hot streaks and some confidence building knocks in clutch spots, maybe the tides will turn and the numbers will return back to at least normal levels for all the Cubs’ hitters.