Chicago Cubs: Comparing the National League Central’s first basemen

The Chicago Cubs have one of the good ones in first baseman Anthony Rizzo. But where does he stack up at his position in a loaded National League Central?

The Chicago Cubs have been blessed to enjoy first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the better part of a decade. His story on how he was traded to the Cubs and his battle against Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, a form of cancer, is quite the redemption story.

Last year, Rizzo got off to a cold start, then came roaring back to post his fourth consecutive 100-RBI campaign, making him the first left-handed Cubs hitter in history to accomplish such a feat. Earlier this season, he eclipsed 200 home runs with Chicago – another remarkable accomplishment for the team’s unofficial captain.

But this season, he’s facing some stiff competition within his own division. Even teams like the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, clubs largely written off when it comes to the NL Central race, boast first basemen capable of competing with Rizzo for the honors of best first baseman in the division.

How does Rizzo stack up? Let’s take a look at the rest of the division, including some guys who are enjoying breakout campaigns so far in 2019.

Chicago Cubs: Votto slowing down in a big way at the plate

It’s been known for most of this decade that Joey Votto was one of the most productive first basemen not only in the National League Central but in all of baseball. In seven of his 13 seasons in the big leagues, Votto has led all of baseball in on-base percentage.

He’s posted an OPS over 1.000 four times and in three of those seasons, he played 150 games or more. For his career he’s compiled a 58.5 fWAR. Sammy Sosa, arguably the Cubs greatest power hitter ever, finished his career with a 58.6 fWAR – but it took him 18 seasons, compared to Votto’s baker’s dozen. The last two seasons, however, Votto has started to show glaring signs of regression.

This season is his age 35 season and comes off a .284/.417/.419 slash line. That’s not so bad for someone who is trending down, but that slugging percentage was the lowest of his career. He’s only slugged under .500 three times. His 12 home runs in 2018 marked a new personal worst outside of 2014 when he only played 62 games due to injury.

Those trends have carried over into 2019. Votto’s slash line sits at a disappointing .206/.325/.338. It’s been a very slow start to the season for him, undoubtedly the worst we’ve ever seen. Yet, the Reds enter Tuesday just 4 1/2 games back of the NL Wild Card. Simply put, Votto is too great a player to play like this over 162 games.

Chicago Cubs: A rival gets a big boost from former Arizona slugger

Paul Goldschmidt was St. Louis’ crowning offseason achievement, and, like Votto, has been very consistent over his career. Goldy made the All-Star team for six straight seasons representing Arizona and has been in the top-10 in MVP voting in each of the last two seasons.

We’re talking about the guy who has seemingly overshadowed Anthony Rizzo at every turn, thanks to his remarkable consistency and ‘face of the franchise’ status down in the desert. This season, though, it’s been a bit of a mixed bag.

He’s put together back-to-back 30 home run seasons and played in 150 games or more in each of the last four years. However, this year he posts a .270/.350/.479 slash line, all career-lows since breaking into the big leagues in 2011.

His .828 OPS is also a career-low dating back to his rookie season where he only played 48 games. Outside of the last week-and-a-half where the Cardinals have struggled, Goldschmidt has been the catalyst to St. Louis’ offense though. Like Votto, I expect to see his normal numbers come September.

Chicago Cubs: Rizzo comes in second in the race

Like the last two gents, Anthony Rizzo has been the model of consistency during his tenure with the Chicago Cubs. The Chicago first baseman has hit 30 home runs or more in four of the last five seasons. He’s a three-time All-Star with two Gold Glove awards over at first.

Compared to Goldschmidt and Votto, he doesn’t stick out in one particular place. After all, he’s just a career .855 OPS player. His highest career fWAR was in 2015 at 6.4 and it’s decreased a full point every season since. However, this season he’s seeing an uptick in his production due to the entire Cubs lineup’s production.

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He’s already at 1.2 fWAR after posting just a 2.7 fWAR in 2018. He’s slugging .532, the second-highest mark of his career and his .911 OPS is the third-best of his career. The value Rizzo brings is his ability to not strikeout. He’s avoided striking out more than 100 times each year since 2016 and if you added his hit by pitches with his walks he’d easily have more walks than strikeouts over the last three seasons.

Last year, despite hitting 25 home runs, it felt like Rizzo’s power had taken a step back. His 25 trots around the base paths were the lowest since 2013 when he only hit 23 long balls. His 29 doubles were also the lowest since 2014 for Rizzo. On May 14, 2018, Rizzo only had six home runs and posted OPS of .690.

A year later he’s up to 10 home runs and an OPS over .900. Rizzo might not flash Hall of Fame numbers year in and year out, but he’s been nothing but consistent for the Cubs since they’ve entered their winning window. It’s nice to see him start the season strong compared to his forgettable first half in 2018.

Chicago Cubs: A breakout showing in Pittsburgh

Entering 2019, I thought Josh Bell would be at the bottom of the rankings of this list by seasons end. Well, he’s actually at the top.

Bell’s .324/.395/.655 slash line entering play Wednesday are all career-highs. His staggering 171 wRC+ is sixth-best in all of Major League Baseball, behind Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, George Springer, Mike Trout and Hunter Dozier.

Among all first baseman, he’s second in baseball in batting average, fourth in OBP and second in slugging percentage. There is no doubt at this point in the season, Bell is the best first baseman in the NL Central.

That’s not to say he’ll maintain his torrid start, but this is what the Pirates hoped for when they drafted him in the second round back in 2011. He’s already tied his 2018 home run total (12) just 40 games into the 2019 campaign.