Are the Chicago Cubs past the peak of their competitive window?

Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester isn’t getting any younger, money gets tighters

Age will play a big role in how well the Cubs play during the back half of this competitive window. The older players are going to lose a step, or a mile per hour on the fast ball. Fortunately, there aren’t many players who fall into that category.

Jon Lester is the most obvious player that we have to worry about aging. Last season Lester’s FIP was 4.39. However, his ERA was 3.32. So Lester started showing signs of becoming one of those crafty lefties who figures out how to outperform his peripherals. This has actually been the trend since he joined the Cubs, with his FIP climbing annually.

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If Hamels and Zobrist aren’t retained after this season, the rest of the team should still be in the part of their career where they improve with age. But as noted above that will come at a cost.

Cubs might have to let Hamels walk

So this year the front office decided to sacrifice some bullpen quality and a veteran backup catcher to save some money. Next year the Cubs may have to decide to let Hamels go to save money even if he turns out to be the ace of the staff. There aren’t too many other places the Cubs can save money in 2020. The money they save on Hamels may pay for all those arbitration raises.

The peak oil concept says that before we have to worry about running out of oil, we will have a big problem when the world reaches peak oil production and consumption eventually exceeds production. In terms of player salary, the 2019 Cubs might be the peak that the Ricketts family can spend.

The Cubs’ new TV deal may eventually increase the amount of money that can be put towards player salaries. The Marquee Sports Network won’t start broadcasting Cubs games until the 2020 season.

It will take some time for the new regional sports network (RSN) to attract advertisers and its full audience. Once the RSN is maximizing profits it may take another year for that lagging money to be available to the front office to spend on player salaries.

This might be it – the peak level of talent we’ll see for some time, the maximum payroll levels ownership is willing to meet – all of it. But if this competitive window is going to be extended, the front office needs to sign some players to contract extensions and the minor league system needs to graduate some additional young talent to the big league club. Otherwise, that window may close sooner than expected.