Chicago Cubs: Cubbies Crib staff talks 2019, makes their predictions

Chicago Cubs: PECOTA is low on the rotation – is this a real issue?

Bill R:

Every one of the Chicago Cubs’ five starters could end up being the ace of the staff or the fifth guy in the rotation. In a perfect world, the Cubs end up with a rotation full of aces. But at some point older pitchers are going to show their age.

That doesn’t mean that age has to catch up with the Cubs starting rotation this season. Jon Lester still found a way to get results last year. Cole Hamels became reinvigorated when he came to the Cubs.

Bill Q:

Having four guys over 30 and another knocking on the door is a bad mark against the Cubs, but it doesn’t have to become a stain on the season.  Jon Lester and Cole Hamels, the two wily 35-year-old veterans of the staff,  have shown they can go through periods where they struggle and then figure things out.  I don’t think anything has changed there.

Both those guys are in the top 10 amongst active pitchers in WAR; they know how to pitch and we will at the very least get solid seasons from them.

Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana are the wild cards in this roster, but for different reasons. Darvish needs to be healthy and bounce back from an awful first season with the Cubs.  Quintana needs to be consistent.  Both have the stuff to be 15 win guys, but health and consistency will define their seasons.

Alex:

PECOTA projections aside (they really are not all that relevant to me) it is important to look at the rotation itself before just looking at age. On paper the rotation is very good, if all guys are healthy and pitching to their top game it is one of the best rotations in the National League.

However the age of Jon Lester is certainly something to worry about. While last year the wins and ERA looked good, the peripherals were not quite as sharp. He will probably not return to 2010-2016 form, but he can still be good. The real factors in this rotation include a healthy Yu Darvish and a more consistent Jose Quintana. Age is not really the main concern there as much as other factors. Long story short, age should not make or break a projection alone.

Erik: 

Does PECOTA really project anybody well?

Logan:

Fabricated. Jon Lester is a quality starter who has eleven straight seasons of 30+ starts. Jose Quintana and Cole Hamels each made 32 starts last season. Yu Darvish is looking like his healthy self thus far and all reports are bringing good news.

Injuries do happen, however, the veteran Cubs starters have managed to find the fountain of youth and will hopefully continue to do so.

Marty:

While I don’t agree with PECOTA’s win projection for the Cubs, I think this is real. Jon Lester dominated in September and on the surface he looked like an ace, but his peripherals were very poor.

I would love to believe Darvish will be healthy and effective. But he has also had multiple elbow surgeries. That is a big wild card.

Jose Quintana is a guy I like to improve this year with better mechanics and higher usage of his changeup, but I think the expectations for Cole Hamels may be too high. Historically, a change of scenery for veteran pitchers often bodes well. The question is whether or not he can follow up on his brilliant second half from last season.

Jake:

The Cubs’ rotation could be really good – it could also be really bad. You can’t bet on anything for guys over 35 (both Jon Lester and Cole Hamels fit into this category and account for 40 percent of the staff), Yu Darvish has the talent to be a difference-maker (if he’s healthy) and Jose Quintana can be dominant – but is yet to show he can do so consistently in a Cubs uniform.

The only sure thing? Kyle Hendricks is gonna be Kyle Hendricks. So, I can see how PECOTA is so low on the staff – that being said, they could flip that narrative and blow guys away. Time will tell.

Nick:

When two of your over-30 pitchers are Hamels and Lester? I think it should be looked at very differently. PECOTA just assumes a decline; it might as well be Yahoo Fantasy stats.