Chicago Cubs: Breaking down the PECOTA projections for 2019

As it is less than a week from pitchers and catchers reporting, it is every baseball fans favorite time of the year. That’s right, the time when PECOTA projections are released from Baseball Prospectus.

For Chicago Cubs fans it’s time to hold onto your hats, things are about to get bumpy. Last season, our beloved Cubbies finished the regular season with 95 wins, the fourth season in a row with 90+ wins. In that span, the Cubs have made three NLCS appearances, won a pennant, and a World Series championship. Not too shabby.

Each year, Baseball Prospectus releases their annual PECOTA projections, a comprehensive conjecture of how teams, and by extension players, are expected to perform. As fans it is fun or infuriating, depending on your level of belief, to break down these statistical barriers and make sense of why something is the way it is. In the case for Cubs fans, they may not like what the projections say.

In terms of the overall projected standings, the Cubs are slated to finish third overall in the division, at a paltry 82-80. Most fans do not believe this to be how the season will progress. For instance, the Cubs won 95 games last season, and that happened without Yu Darvish for over half the season as well as Kris Bryant, who missed many games himself. As it goes, the question remains: Can this team exceed PECOTA’s projections?

Chicago Cubs: PECOTA Division projections

As stated before, the Cubs are projected to finish just two games north of .500, at 82-80. Much of this could be from the fact Chicago has made no truly significant offseason moves, while three other teams in the Central, in fact, have.

The St. Louis Cardinals made the most significant splash landing All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, and former Cubs World Series for and Cleveland Indian Andrew Miller. The Reds meanwhile have loaded up over the offseason, first acquiring Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Alex Wood. Second, they added another former All-Star in Sonny Gray. Lastly, the Milwaukee Brewers agreed with former Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal. All worthy additions.

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Meanwhile, on the North side, the most significant signing thus far for the Cubs has to be Brad Brach. In pressing the need for the bullpen, the team came to terms with Brach on a one-year deal for cheap. Daniel Descalso was the other name who the Cubs signed to a two-year contract. The super utility man will provide veteran leadership.

The second argument against the Cubs favor is the age of their pitching staff. Team ace Jon Lester is entering his age-35 season this year. Cole Hamels is also 35 years old, and while he made 32 starts, there is no telling he can repeat the performance. Meanwhile, the bullpen is stock full of over-30’s. Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop are both 34. New reliever Brach is 33, and Steve Cishek is 32. Many ‘what-ifs’ of course, however, it is something to keep an eye in this season.

Chicago Cubs: What about the stars?

Without dredging on about every individual players’ PECOTA projection, for this time it is all about the main stars of the team and where they pale in comparison to their 2019 forecast.

Beginning with Willson Contreras, it was clear he had a down year last year. For one, Contreras caught 1109 2/3 innings, up from the 821 1/3 he caught the year before. Contreras, of course, saw a drop in almost all offensive categories, posting a wRC+ right at the mean. Contreras finished by slashing .249/.339/.390.

Looking at PECOTA, Contreras is slated to slash .253/.339/.415. He is projected to hit 15 home runs and account for 60 RBI. Seeing as Baseball Prospectus can be conservative in their PECOTA projections, it is easy to believe Contreras can reach these numbers no problem. It is highly doubtful he surpasses the 1,000 inning mark again this season, which can only be a better thing for Contreras and his production.

Next up is Anthony Rizzo. Last season, Rizzo had a bit of a down year too. Don’t misconstrue this statement by any means. Rizzo had a great year; it just did not reach heights of years past. He finished the season having slashed .283/.376/.470 smacking 25 home runs with 101 RBI. Relative to Baseball Prospectus, Rizzo is projected at .282/.381/.486 with 25 home runs and 88 RBI. It too is entirely reachable.

Last season Rizzo hit just .149 with a single home run and nine runs driven in the first month. Following the early struggles, however, Rizzo turned it on and finished with over one-hundred RBI for the fourth straight year. As Rizzo is someone who is very consistent and avoids the injury bug, we can slot him in to reach these projections no problem.

The third name on this list is Javier Baez. The electric second-baseman sometimes shortstop, had a career year last year for the Cubs. Baez played in a career-high number of games and excelled everywhere else. Baez finished the campaign by slashing .290/.326/.554. Baez hit 34 home runs and accounted for 111 RBI. For Baseball Prospectus, Baez slides in at .268/.322/.470, 27 home runs and 79 RBI.

If Baez can stay healthy again, these numbers are reachable. Since moving into a full-time role, Baez has not hit lower than .270, while seeing his ISO continue increasing over the three years. The home run numbers and RBI projections are pretty realistic, however, hopefully, Baez continues to build on his strong season in 2018 to produce gaudy numbers once again.

Lastly, we arrive at Kris Bryant. The 2018 season should count as a Mulligan for Bryant. While still a decent season, Bryant saw a relatively significant drop in most major offensive categories. Unfortunately, Bryant dealt with a serious shoulder injury as well as a horrifying hit-by-pitch causing him to miss a whopping 60 games.

Bryant posted just a .272/.374/.460 line with 13 home runs and 52 RBI. His strikeout rate also increased. This season, Bryant is projected to finish .273/.376/.473 with 23 home runs and 75 RBI. For Bryant, if he misses even a fraction of the games he missed last season, it is more than doable. Bryant can be one of the best as he has proven it time and again. Expect the projection and so much more this season.

Chicago Cubs: The finest starting pitching around

The offense should exceed their expectations. That much we can anticipate. It is time to envision what the new year will entail for the pitching, as it is projected to be a weaker spot for Chicago.

First off is Jon Lester. Lester was a stud last year, filling the role as the Cubs’ ace. He had many pivotal moments in which he stepped up with enthusiasm and heart. Respectively, Lester pitched to an impressive 18-6, 3.32 ERA finish. It was the fifth year straight Lester made exactly 32 starts in a season and a string of eleven consecutive 30+ start seasons.

This year, Baseball Prospectus projects Lester to finish with 30 starts, a 12-12 record, and a 4.38 ERA. Nothing suggests Lester is in any danger of falling behind the age curve. As he is entering his age-35 season, some regression is likely however it should not be to the point of his projection. Lester has won 13+ games three years in a row and has a three-year average 3.33 ERA. Lester should hit at least 12 wins, however, should also be able to stay out of the double-digit loss column.

Next is the big left, Jose Quintana. There is no getting around the struggles Quintana faced last season. While healthy all year, Quintana posted a 13-11 record with a 4.03 ERA. He also saw his strikeout rate decrease and walk rate increase. Baseball Prospectus has Quintana finishing 11-9 with a 3.96 ERA, making 29 starts. There is hope this could be realistic. For it to happen, Quintana would probably need just one or two more outstanding starts.

Cole Hamels is listed currently as the Cubs number two starter. Hamels caught serious fire after joining the club via trade last year. Over 76.1 innings, Hamels pitched to a 2.36 ERA. In the span, it ended up as Hamel’ best statistical period of his career. The Cubs hope he can replicate it again this year.

For Hamels’ projection, Baseball Prospectus sees him finishing 12-11 with a 4.06 ERA. Outside of his 2017 campaign, Hamels has been consistent over the past four years. The projected ERA may be a little high, and hopefully, Hamels can keep it in the mid-threes.

Chicago Cubs: Last thoughts

PECOTA projections have been known to be uber-conservative since their inception in 2003, which is why it is difficult to believe an 82-80 finish honestly. That being said, no team is expected to win over 90 games according to the PECOTA Depth Chart projections.

Gaining both Darvish and Bryant back healthy will provide a huge boon. Allowing Contreras more consistent days off will only help everyone. Lastly, once Morrow returns from his recovery, and if Carl Edwards Jr. can rebound, the bullpen will flourish.

This season is one of major interest to see how the Cubs rebound from adversity last season. Hopefully, the Cubbies can answer the call.