Chicago Cubs: Breaking down the PECOTA projections for 2019

Chicago Cubs: What about the stars?

Without dredging on about every individual players’ PECOTA projection, for this time it is all about the main stars of the team and where they pale in comparison to their 2019 forecast.

Beginning with Willson Contreras, it was clear he had a down year last year. For one, Contreras caught 1109 2/3 innings, up from the 821 1/3 he caught the year before. Contreras, of course, saw a drop in almost all offensive categories, posting a wRC+ right at the mean. Contreras finished by slashing .249/.339/.390.

Looking at PECOTA, Contreras is slated to slash .253/.339/.415. He is projected to hit 15 home runs and account for 60 RBI. Seeing as Baseball Prospectus can be conservative in their PECOTA projections, it is easy to believe Contreras can reach these numbers no problem. It is highly doubtful he surpasses the 1,000 inning mark again this season, which can only be a better thing for Contreras and his production.

Next up is Anthony Rizzo. Last season, Rizzo had a bit of a down year too. Don’t misconstrue this statement by any means. Rizzo had a great year; it just did not reach heights of years past. He finished the season having slashed .283/.376/.470 smacking 25 home runs with 101 RBI. Relative to Baseball Prospectus, Rizzo is projected at .282/.381/.486 with 25 home runs and 88 RBI. It too is entirely reachable.

Last season Rizzo hit just .149 with a single home run and nine runs driven in the first month. Following the early struggles, however, Rizzo turned it on and finished with over one-hundred RBI for the fourth straight year. As Rizzo is someone who is very consistent and avoids the injury bug, we can slot him in to reach these projections no problem.

The third name on this list is Javier Baez. The electric second-baseman sometimes shortstop, had a career year last year for the Cubs. Baez played in a career-high number of games and excelled everywhere else. Baez finished the campaign by slashing .290/.326/.554. Baez hit 34 home runs and accounted for 111 RBI. For Baseball Prospectus, Baez slides in at .268/.322/.470, 27 home runs and 79 RBI.

If Baez can stay healthy again, these numbers are reachable. Since moving into a full-time role, Baez has not hit lower than .270, while seeing his ISO continue increasing over the three years. The home run numbers and RBI projections are pretty realistic, however, hopefully, Baez continues to build on his strong season in 2018 to produce gaudy numbers once again.

Lastly, we arrive at Kris Bryant. The 2018 season should count as a Mulligan for Bryant. While still a decent season, Bryant saw a relatively significant drop in most major offensive categories. Unfortunately, Bryant dealt with a serious shoulder injury as well as a horrifying hit-by-pitch causing him to miss a whopping 60 games.

Bryant posted just a .272/.374/.460 line with 13 home runs and 52 RBI. His strikeout rate also increased. This season, Bryant is projected to finish .273/.376/.473 with 23 home runs and 75 RBI. For Bryant, if he misses even a fraction of the games he missed last season, it is more than doable. Bryant can be one of the best as he has proven it time and again. Expect the projection and so much more this season.