Chicago Cubs: Breaking down the PECOTA projections for 2019

As it is less than a week from pitchers and catchers reporting, it is every baseball fans favorite time of the year. That’s right, the time when PECOTA projections are released from Baseball Prospectus.

For Chicago Cubs fans it’s time to hold onto your hats, things are about to get bumpy. Last season, our beloved Cubbies finished the regular season with 95 wins, the fourth season in a row with 90+ wins. In that span, the Cubs have made three NLCS appearances, won a pennant, and a World Series championship. Not too shabby.

Each year, Baseball Prospectus releases their annual PECOTA projections, a comprehensive conjecture of how teams, and by extension players, are expected to perform. As fans it is fun or infuriating, depending on your level of belief, to break down these statistical barriers and make sense of why something is the way it is. In the case for Cubs fans, they may not like what the projections say.

In terms of the overall projected standings, the Cubs are slated to finish third overall in the division, at a paltry 82-80. Most fans do not believe this to be how the season will progress. For instance, the Cubs won 95 games last season, and that happened without Yu Darvish for over half the season as well as Kris Bryant, who missed many games himself. As it goes, the question remains: Can this team exceed PECOTA’s projections?