Chicago Cubs: Injecting a healthy, effective Yu Darvish into the rotation

Just how big a boost could a healthy, effective Yu Darvish be to the Chicago Cubs? Let’s take a look at what we should expect from the right-hander in 2019.

It’s far too soon to label Chicago Cubs starter Yu Darvish and his six-year, $126 million contract a bust. The first year? Yes – it absolutely falls into that category. But you can’t judge a book by the first chapter, the same as you cannot issue a judgment on a six-year deal after just eight starts.

Theo Epstein brought Darvish in last winter, hoping to inject a high-end, younger starter into a rotation headlined by aging, albeit still effective Jon Lester. Instead, he got an oft-injured, inconsistent arm who failed to take the mound after mid-May.

Injuries piled up and cost the Japanese-born pitcher most of the 2018 campaign. This offseason, he went under the knife and is already down in Mesa working out at the Cubs’ facility – a promising sign.

Epstein and his front office are standing pat this winter, handicapped by payroll limitations brought on, at least in part, by the signing of Darvish. So, at this point, one thing is abundantly clear: the Chicago Cubs need Yu Darvish to pitch well in 2019 to have any shot at recapturing the division.

Chicago Cubs: The fifth-inning yips proved costly for Darvish

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a guy struggle with one particular frame as much as Darvish did in the fifth inning last season. Granted, he made just eight starts – but it’s not like he was even effective in those outings. We’d probably all feel a lot better if he’d have been blowing guys away in April, but that was far from the case.

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In his eight starts, opponents batted in the range of .115 and .207 against the right-hander. The Cubs, for obvious reasons, would take that ten times out of ten. But as soon as the scorecard flipped to the fifth, Darvish imploded almost without fail – to the tune of an albatross .533 opponent batting average and unthinkable .967 slugging percentage.

Darvish lasted through six innings just three times – and in each of those outings, he allowed one earned run or less. In fact, his final start of the year, coming on May 20 against the Reds, was a sharp one. He turned in six innings of one-run ball, striking out seven and walking three.

His fifth-inning woes largely coincided with lineups turning over for a third look. While effective the first two times through, Darvish struggled badly against opponents when seeing them a third time, with teams squaring him up to the tune of a .455/.526/.879 line last season.

So the first ‘must’ for him heading into 2019? Figure out the fifth inning. It doesn’t matter if last year’s struggles were physical, mental or a little or both – it’s a new season and a clean slate.

Chicago Cubs: Let’s see what a ‘normal’ season would mean

I’m a firm believer that we’ll never see a healthy Yu Darvish struggle as he did in 2018. I went so far as to predict that the righty could represent the Chicago Cubs in Cleveland next summer in the All-Star Game. But even if he doesn’t pitch quite that well, any type of acceptable production could boost the club in a big way.

In his career (excluding his 2018 showing), Darvish has averaged the following numbers:

• Career: 3.7 WAR / 3.42 ERA / 3.33 K/BB / 166 IP / 1.179 WHIP
• 2018: -0.2 WAR / 4.95 ERA / 2.33 K/BB / 40 IP   /  1.425 WHIP

So, essentially, a healthy Darvish would add 3.5 wins to the Cubs over the average replacement level starting pitcher. But let’s not forget Mike Montgomery, who was worth 1.3 WAR last season, according to Baseball Reference. Let’s hope Montgomery can rejoin the bullpen as a 1-2 WAR guy while Darvish puts up somewhere in that 3-4 WAR range in 2019.

The right-handed starter could ultimately prove to be a huge difference-maker for the Cubs next season, in a division race that’s expected to be closer than in recent memory after the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals all improved their respective rosters already this offseason.

What we’re getting at is simple – we don’t need Yu Darvish to step in and pitch like an ace (although I don’t think anyone would complain and I’d love for the Cubs’ collective fanbase to eat some crow on him). What we need is for the right-hander to simply take the ball every five days and pitch like he’s proven he’s capable of doing.