Chicago Cubs: Agreements reached with all arbitration eligible players

The Chicago Cubs have reached agreements with all seven arbitration-eligible players.  With this huge piece of business out of the way, what lies ahead?

Friday was the final day for teams and players to exchange salary numbers.  After Friday it would have been off to arbitration hearings starting on February 1.  This has happened only once under the current regime when Justin Grimm and the Chicago Cubs went to arbitration a year ago.

Given the seven players who were arbitration eligible this year, avoiding arbitration was no small feat.  We’ll review the outcome, see where the Cubs stand now financially, and gaze into the crystal ball to see what might happen next.

With a reportedly tight financial situation at hand, getting arbitration figures exchanged and agreed upon may finally open the door for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to address the holes on their club’s roster. But only time will tell.

Chicago Cubs: Some surprises in deals

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We’ll get the big fish out of the way first.  Performance-wise Kris Bryant and Javy Baez went in opposite directions in 2018.  Baez had what could only be called a breakout season;  Bryant, hobbled by injury, saw his numbers decline.

OK, he declined to mere human levels after his 2015 Rookie of the Year season and his 2016 MVP season that helped him set a record level first-year arbitration salary after the 2017 season.

Baez made $657,000 last year and signed for $5.2 million in 2019.  This is certainly a hefty boost for the 26-year-old infielder.  But nonetheless, a level that many experts including Tim Dierkes at MLBTR predicted could have been greater.

Bryant signed at $12.9 million, a $2.05 million boost.  Not the record-setting level he attained after 2017, but pretty much in line where most thought he would end up.

Chicago Cubs: Pitchers get much-deserved raise

Cubs pitching last season battled rain, a nonsensical forty straight games, and a season-long hot and cold line up that went dead in September.  These guys earned their raises this year.

Kyle Hendricks, at $7.405 million, will earn more in 2019 than in his previous six seasons combined.  In 2018 Hendricks pitched to a 3.44 ERA and 1.146 WHIP for what was likely his second-best season after his 2016 near Cy Young season.  It didn’t start out that way, with a first half 3.92 ERA and 1.196 WHIP, giving 31 walks and 17 home runs.  But 2016 Kyle showed up in the second half, pitching to a 2.84 ERA, 1.083 WHIP while walking just 13 and allowing five home runs.

Mike Montgomery‘s 2018 season looked a lot like Cubs 2018: cold, hot, cold, hot again, then collapse.  But his efforts to fill for the injured Yu Darvish helped the Cubs avoid a total catastrophe in the starting rotation until Cole Hamels arrived at the end of July.  With an aging rotation, the versatile Montgomery will be more valuable than ever.   The Cubs and Montgomery agreed to a$2.44 million contract.

Last but not least is Carl Edwards Jr.  Most remember his horrible September in 2018.  But there’s that April with 0.66 ERA and 0.879 WHIP, 23 Ks to five walks over 13 and a third innings the July with a 2.35 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 11 Ks and 2 walks over seven and two thirds after coming off the DL, or the 0.73 ERA in August, 1.054 WHIP.   The kid has a bright future and the $1.5 million deal will play just fine for his first year of arbitration.

Where do things stand now and what lies ahead

The Cubs current total payroll against the threshold stands at about $220-plus million, well over the $206 million threshold.  Because they avoided going over the threshold in 2018 they will face a 20 percent tax on the amount over $206 million or roughly 20 percent of $19 million, or $3.8 million if the payroll doesn’t go higher.

If they go over the $226 mark they will also incur a 12 percent tax on the amount over that level.  If they sign a Harper or Machado at $30-plus million they’ll face even steeper taxes and have their highest draft pick moved back ten places. Can they afford that? Sure. Do they want to, or will they?  No.