Chicago Cubs: How does the Cubs starting rotation stack up?
One thing hasn’t changed since early 2018. On paper, the Chicago Cubs starting rotation should once again be one of the team’s biggest strengths.
The New Year is upon us. With several major free agents still unsigned, there’s still plenty of excitement coming our way before Opening Day 2019 hits and another season of Chicago Cubs baseball begins.
Roughly 25 starting pitchers remain free agents and a host of trades could be made before pitchers and catchers report in mid-February. While the Cubs have questions that need answering before then, the Cubs rotation is locked and loaded.
Top of the rotation aces
Jon Lester, who turns 35 next month, will again top the rotation as the wily veteran left-hander with steady demeanor and determination. His 18-6 record in the 2018 campaign was his best since the 19-5 mark he set in 2016. His ERA dropped a full point from to 3.32 from his 2017 effort, and his WHIP improved to 1.247. Lester attacked his struggles in July and August last year the way you’d expect him to, with a professional and calm approach of someone who’s been one of the game’s best pitchers.
The Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas, who few had heard of before last year, is the likely Opening Day starter for the Redbirds. Mikolas spent three years pitching in Japan after an inauspicious start to his MLB career. In 2018 he pitched to an 18-4 record, a 2.83 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. and had everyone asking “Who the heck is this guy?” Right now he’s probably the best top-of-the-rotation guy in the NL Central.
This year, the Brewers lost their likely top starter before Opening Day even hit. Jimmy Nelson injured his throwing shoulder late in the 2017 campaign diving headfirst back into first base. He required surgery and missed all of the 2018 season. Though it is very likely Nelson makes the rotation out of Spring Training, my pick for Opening Day starter for the Crew is Jhoulys Chacin. He certainly earned it after last season, going 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.163 WHIP.
Pirates and Reds. Jameson Taillon looks to be the top dog for the Pirates. The 27-year-old righty had his best year last season and while Chris Archer was the team’s notable addition last year, he didn’t live up to expectations. For the Reds that Opening Day spot is still a bit in flux as they just added Alex Wood in the trade with the Dodgers. I like Luis Castillo right now as the likely top hurler in that staff, though Wood is certainly able to fill that role as well.
Advantage: Cardinals. Mikolas is a man on a mission. Barring injury he’s the best big arm in the Central, though Lester is a very close second – despite his age.
Chicago Cubs: Breaking down the middle of the rotation
This is where seasons are made or broken. For a team to reach the postseason those 2-3 spot guys have to step up and pitch like aces or close to that level. A collapse in one in one of these key spots (see Yu Darvish last season) and a team can find itself in a lot of trouble.
The Cubs could boast the best middle of the order in all of baseball in 2019. Kyle Hendricks fills the two spot in the rotation. Most thought that 2018 would be the year Hendricks broke out. Instead, he struggled in the first half giving up a whopping 17 home runs and 31 walks over 110 1/3 innings while compiling a 3.94 ERA. He rebounded in the second half, allowing just five long balls and 13 walks over 88 2/3 innings with a 2.84 ERA.
The third spot is where you’d expect to find Yu Darvish in the Cubs rotation. But after last season unless Darvish has a spectacular spring, I see this spot going to Cole Hamels. The big question is whether or not Hamels can be the pitcher he was at the end of 2018. If so, that $20 million option will seem like a bargain. In the 12 games after coming to the North Side, Hamels pitched like a man possessed posting a 2.36 ERA and a 1.100 WHIP. Even in his prime, he couldn’t keep going like that all year, but at age 35 if we get something close to 2015 or 2016 Hamels it could make this middle of rotation the best in baseball.
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The Cardinals’ Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez will push the Cubs’ middle order guys and they certainly have talent and experience to do it. The biggest issue is Martinez’s control. Last year he gave up 60 walks to 117 Ks, leading to a 1.348 WHIP. Even so, gave up just five homers all season and he compiled a 3.11 ERA and 125 ERA+ which is striking given the walks. As for Wacha, it’s not a question of ability but injury. A nagging oblique strain limited him to just 84 1/3 innings in 2018.
The Brewers middle duo is the reason the Brewers need to hit. Depending on his rehab and spring training the aforementioned Nelson would slot into the middle of the order, along with either of Chase Anderson or Zach Davies. And though he appeared in only 19 games Brandon Woodruff could also be a surprise in one of these spots. Nonetheless, neither Anderson or Davies come close to the either Cubs or Cardinals duo in the 2-3 spot. With Wade Miley gone and as yet no additions made to the starting rotation it seems the Brewers are banking on Nelson.
Pirates and Reds. For the Bucks, I gave Tallion the Opening Day role over Trevor Williams though they have very similar numbers. So the Pirates start with a very strong spot in the middle of the rotation with either player. The question is who fills the other spot. While Ivan Nova would seem most likely, I like Joe Musgrove. He had better numbers across the board than Nova, though he suffered an abdominal muscle wall injury that required surgery. This one comes down to whether Musgrove is ready, and if so, who has the better spring training. As for the Reds, I think newly acquired pitchers Tanner Roark and Alex Wood boost their rotation significantly. The Reds could be the sleeper rotation of 2019.
Advantage: Cubs. Hendricks and Hamels are just too potent in terms of talent and performance right now compared to the other four NL Central rotations. And If Darvish returns ready to pitch then the Cubs will essentially have three two-spot pitchers.
Chicago Cubs: Rounding out the rotation
The expectations of the final two spots in most competitive rotations are for guys to be innings eaters, to take the mound every five days, and keep the game close. For the Cubs, Jose Quintana has been that guy. Last year was a bit of struggle for the lefty but he went out and threw his innings and Cubs won most of his games. Quintana struggled in the first two months and then settled down in May.
The good times faded around midseason but he finished strong in September. A touch more consistency in 2019 and Quintana will fill out the rotation nicely. Finally, there’s Yu Darvish, for whom 2018 was a total bust. He would certainly slot higher than a back of rotation starter if not for what happened last year. I see the Cubs starting Darvish in the four spot to reduce the pressure and build both his confidence and arm strength. If he isn’t ready to go after spring training then look for Mike Montgomery to start.
The Cardinals have a few options for the last spots in the rotation, any of whom could fill the role very well, starting with an aging Adam Wainwright. The last three seasons have not been kind to the 37-year-old righty. And 2018 added injury to insult as health limited Wainwright to only eight games. A free agent after the 2018 season, the Cards signed him to an incentive-based contract in 2019. Jack Flaherty, John Gant, Luke Weaver, and any of a host of others could fill out the five spot in the Cards rotation.
The Brewers also have options in the back end of the rotation. Junior Guerra, Freddy Peralta, among others will compete for these spots. And the Brewers could add depth through free agency.
Pirates and Reds. I see the Pirates possibly dropping Chris Archer to the four spot in 2019 after his subpar performance in 2018. Certainly, he could climb the ladder as the season goes on or if others don’t work out, or if he has a solid spring training. Rounding out the rotation for the Pirates will be either Ivan Nova or Joe Musgrove. Again this will be a call made after spring training, assuming Musgrove is ready in time.
Advantage: Cubs. If you have Yu Darvish as your number four, you have a huge advantage over any team. And Quintana matches up against any division rival in these spots unless Wainwright has a spectacular comeback, which will mean he’ll likely move up in the Cards rotation anyway.
For 2019 – It’s the Cubs
The Cubs go into 2019 with one question mark: Yu Darvish. And that’s not really a question mark if he stays healthy. The Cards, Brewers, and even more so the Pirates and Reds, have serious questions after their top starters. From top to bottom, if the Cubs starters perform the way they are capable of then, without doubt, this is the most formidable rotation in the NL Central.