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Chicago Cubs: Moving money around won’t be easy for the front office
Despite what you may want to hear, the Chicago Cubs moving bad contracts isn’t a cut-and-dry process and is far more complicated than you may think.
Chicago Cubs fans felt a buzz of excitement this weekend when reports surfaced that Theo Epstein apparently told Bryce Harper and his agent Scott Boras to check in with the Cubs before making a final decision on where the star free agent would sign.
The Cubs are already on track for a payroll exceeding $220 million in 2019, well over the luxury tax threshold of $206 million.
Harper is unlikely to settle for a short-term deal, and thus a potential signing with the Cubs would also bring a huge cap hit to the organization, making it difficult to get back under that threshold for years to come.
Thus, if they still want to sign the 2015 NL MVP and avoid the steepest of penalties moving forward, Hoyer and Epstein will need to make a series of moves to slash the payroll.
However, the issue lies with the players on Chicago’s roster currently making the most money, because they are unlikely to attract many offers from opposing ball clubs. Most notably, this includes Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Kintzler.
Chicago Cubs: Will the 2016 signings be moved? Don’t count on it
Heyward is set to make $118.5 million over the next five years of his contract, and despite still being an excellent defensive right fielder, his shortcomings at the plate in recent years (not to mention the money) severely hamper his value.
Zobrist would be far more appealing to a number of clubs. He is in the final year of his contract and will make just $12.5 million one year after hitting .305 with a 123 wRC+ and 3.6 fWAR. Aside from his versatility, the veteran’s professionalism would make him a welcome addition for any club in need of leadership.
But the Cubs are also in dire need of that very same leadership quality that Zobrist carries, as Epstein has professed as of late. Moving the former World Series MVP would seem counterintuitive.
Chicago would likely welcome a trade partner for Heyward, but not many teams are likely to come calling for a (soon to be) 30-year-old right fielder coming off of a 99 wRC+ plus season with nearly $120 million spread over five years (this figure includes signing bonus totals, etc).
Both players were key offseason additions to a club that would go on to win the World Series in 2016, but they are unlikely to be moved in pursuit of the hottest name in 2019.
Chicago Cubs: You reap what you sow
Chicago’s front office was bold in inking Chatwood to a three-year, $38 million deal last offseason given his 4.31 lifetime ERA.
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The hope was that his success pitching away from Coors Field would carry over to Chicago, but those wishes were quickly dashed as Chatwood struggled with command issues all season. The 28-year-old posted a 5.30 ERA in 20 starts and led the league with 95 walks.
And with the Cubs picking up Cole Hamels‘ $20 million option and getting a healthy Yu Darvish back in the rotation, Chatwood is suddenly on the outside looking in… but still making his fair share of cash.
Meanwhile, Kintzler was a nightmare in Chicago after coming to the North Side at the trade deadline, posting a 7.00 ERA and 4.5 BB/9 in just 18 innings of work out of the bullpen.
Both players will make a combined $18 million next season, money that the Cubs would undoubtedly love to get off the books. But Chatwood’s command issues and Kintzler’s surprising inconsistency are unlikely to bring many suitors to the table.
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Don’t count on more Theo magic
If the Cubs front office can find a way to shed payroll in order to free up space for Harper, it would be quite the accomplishment.
Jon Lester and Yu Darvish obviously aren’t going anywhere, and trading Jose Quintana does not appear to be in the cards, so there is a shortage of options on the table.
Prior offseason moves paired with poor performances have backed Hoyer and Epstein into a corner, and it is unlikely that opposing teams will be willing to let them out.