Chicago Cubs: What is the ceiling for this core group in 2019?

As the late Tom Petty once said, “The waiting is the hardest part…”  The Chicago Cubs and their fans have been doing plenty of that since the Wild Card loss.

While many of us (myself included) pine for Bryce Harper or any kind of move to one degree or another, it might be better if the Chicago Cubs stand pat at this point and hope for more production from a coming-into-their-prime lineup and a lack of injuries to key players.

Why? Well, let’s take a look at what the ceilings of our position players and what we could realistically expect in a good year if things worked out in our (and their) favor.

First things first – let’s start at the top with the manager.  Joe Maddon is on record that he wants to be more involved on a day-to-day basis with what’s going on outside of the clubhouse and on the field.  He wants to do more coaching.  The three-time Manager of the Year wants to be on the field.

Sounds like he wants to hit some fungoes, watch batting practice and be more involved in swing mechanics.  While I can’t speak to Maddon’s personal abilities in any of those domains, I do know he is a great communicator and has made it a point to say he will be doing more coaching this year on the field, before the game.  Everyone also knows he’s is a “lame duck” manager, working under the last year of his contract, given the fact the front office decided not to extend him.

I don’t necessarily think that status will affect Maddon or any of the players, it bears watching to see how the season starts, whether positive changes occur with players and how much Maddon deviates from what he has done in the past. Bottom line: You can expect him to be on top of his game – and we all know what Maddon’s ceiling is – World Series champion (2016) and Manager of the Year (2008, 2011, 2015).

Chicago Cubs could easily roll with this outfield mix

Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist,and even Kris Bryant will probably (barring trade or injury) make appearances in the big green area behind the infield in 2019.  How could the Cubs stand pat with such a group when a hyped-up Bryce Harper is available for beaucoup bucks? Easy.  The group, with some fine-tuning and performances in line with their expected prime production, is really good and could be even better.

Almora, 24,  is a good-to-great defensive center fielder, so anything he gives you out of that spot offensively is icing on the cake.  He proved in the first half of 2018 that he can hit fastballs and he can hit them well.  He’s not going to hit for a ton of power, but if he hits the way he did the first half of 2018, he’s basically an All-Star.

The youngster is a lefty killer, so coupled with Javier Baez, you can expect to see him higher in the lineup against lefties and if he can avoid the second half collapse that plagued him this past season, he realistically could be looking at a ceiling of what he did before the All-Star Break last season: .319/.357/.438.  Even if he hits in the .280-.300 range (which he already did last year anyhow) with an OBP of .340, you’re looking at a 3-4 WAR player.

Meanwhile, Ian Happ, 24, is the biggest wild card and unknown on the Cubs, this side of Tyler Chatwood. Versatile, yet he doesn’t have a home.  Powerful, yet he strikes out a lot.  Patient, yet, doesn’t hit his pitch.

In just over a season’s worth of at-bats (751), Happ has 39 home runs and 112 RBI. That’s right- you read that correctly.  So, while you’re busy getting annoyed at him for striking out in what seemed like half his at-bats (167 of 387), just remember that he’s only 24 and hasn’t even played a whole season as a starter. Even in a year that saw him struggle, he still got on base over 35 percent of the time.

If he can mix the power he displayed his rookie season with the patience he displayed in his sophomore campaign, you could be looking at a guy who is a two-win player coming off the bench as Ben Zobrist 2.0.  And, that’s not a crazy projection as he was nearly that in 2017 in less than 400 at-bats.

Zobrist, 37, found what Ponce de Leon could not. He was nearly a 4 WAR player in 2018 in a manageable 520 plate appearances.  I don’t have to even discuss Zo’s ceiling, as we can’t expect him to be hitting that still as a player, but believing that a guy who knows the strike zone, works at bats, and comes through in the clutch is going to have a good season is a stretch for anyone who has watched him play. Saying the Cubs will get somewhere around 3 WAR from Zobrist is a realistic and confident prognostication to make.

Last, but certainly not least, right fielder Jason Heyward has been much maligned (and I’ve done plenty of my own bellyaching, although I’ll contest rightfully so in most cases) and has struggled mightily offensively for the Cubs since signing a mega-deal before the 2016 season.

He also struggled a bit defensively at the beginning of 2018 but was able to right that ship, as well as make some better contact with the ball in the first half of last season.  We don’t need Heyward to hit .300 or smack 30 home runs, but it sure would be nice to pair his Gold Glove defense with a 2015-esque .293/.359/.439 slash line.  That year saw him turn in a 5.6 WAR season-  while we’d love that for sure, we’ll settle for a guy who can get on base and hit the ball hard consistently and smack it the other way with two strikes.

Chicago Cubs: Schwarber could have us asking Bryce who?

We can’t forget about the last name on the outfield rotation. He’s the guy who puts Paul Bunyan to shame amongst many of the Cubs’ faithful.  The guy who came back from a horrific knee injury to set the table for the greatest Cubs’ victory in over 100 years. Or, if things go right, the guy who could give you Bryce Harper-type numbers if he puts it all together.

That’s right. I said it. And, one of these seasons, Schwarber, 25, will silence the haters, the doubters and the casual fans who think he can’t play in the outfield and needs to go to the American League to DH.  To them, I have one point to make – Schwarber is already a better defensive outfielder than Bryce Harper, and it wasn’t really close last year.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs: P.J. Higgins deserves to be in the lineup on a daily basis
• Cubs might start to limit Justin Steele’s workload soon
• Cubs: Adrian Sampson is forcing his way into the conversation
• Projecting the Chicago Cubs bullpen to open the 2023 season
• Cubs fans are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel

What fan doesn’t think he can hit 42 home runs (Harper’s career-high in his godly 2015 season) if given 650 plate appearances? What fan questions his eye and ability to work counts, continuing to improve pitch recognition, selection, and mashability? Sure, he needs to work on going the other way with two strikes (or even before) to beat the shift and learn to hit lefties.

You know who else needed to do both those things? A guy sitting right next to him in the dugout who struggled mightily against left-handers before he didn’t, who has learned to choke and poke while still consistently hitting for power with two strikes.

With any luck, Schwarber is talking to Anthony Rizzo routinely and allowing all the info that helped him reverse those issues to soak right in.  If he’s able to do those two things, who’s to say Schwarber doesn’t have a 4-5 WAR season? We know he can slug .500.  We know he can get on base even more than his 15 percent walk rate said last year.

He beats the shift a few more times and hits the ball with authority the other way, and you’re looking at Schwarber posting a .280/.400/.500 type line.  With the improvements he made in the outfield last season and the way every fan and coach knows he works, don’t discount that very real possibility.  And when he does that, no one will even remember that Bryce guy’s name.

Chicago Cubs: Contreras needs to walk the walk in 2019

On his way to claiming the title, “best catcher in the NL,” Willson Contreras hit a little snag. If he is able to get back to his 2017 ways, he might be back in the conversation. Right now? Not so much.

We know Contreras will be the starting catcher for the Chicago Cubs in 2018.  What we don’t know is if Victor Caratini will be backing him up, or if the Cubs will go with a veteran presence a la 2015/2016/2017.  While it would make sense to go back to a veteran, Caratini did find some success at various points and is only 25 still.

Regardless of the backup options, the question in regards to Cubs’ catching will most definitely be, can Contreras find his stroke and become the All-Star-caliber player everyone saw before his injury in 2017?

If he can, and coupled with his rocket arm, the Cubs would be looking at a 3-4 WAR catcher and a cherry on the top of a talented young core that Theo Epstein has challenged to produce quite publicly.

If all goes well in 2019, expect to have three or four Cubs back in the All-Star Game, a team hungry for more postseason success and one of the game’s best managers leading his team back to another World Series.