Chicago Cubs: Despite what you think, Kyle Schwarber performed well in 2018

Despite grumblings from Chicago Cubs fans and constant trade speculation, Kyle Schwarber has started to put together notable improvements in his game.

Kyle Schwarber has been the most polarizing Chicago Cubs player since Big Z, Carlos Zambrano.  While Schwarber isn’t nearly the fiery and emotionally volatile player Big Z was, he has become polarizing to the fanbase due to his unreached ceiling and untapped potential.

In many ways, Schwarber’s potential and talent has taken the same route as his young teammate, 2018 National League MVP runner-up Javier Baez.  With all the talent in the world, prodigious power and rampant trade rumors circling at every turn, both of these Cubs have had to deal with a ton of outside noise and untold pressure early in their careers.

They’ve also each had to deal with injuries that have cost them important regular season time, although Schwarber’s 2016 injury cost him significantly more: basically the entire duration of that campaign.  They each played a huge role in the march to a trophy in 2016 as 23-year-olds – Baez putting the Cubs on his shoulders in the first two rounds of the playoffs, winning NLCS MVP; Schwarber pulling a Willis Reed in coming back from injury to hit in the World Series, serving as DH in Cleveland and going 7-for-17 in the series.  That’s not even mentioning sparking the game-winning rally that ultimately clinched the Cubs their first World Series championship in over 100 years.

2018 also saw them break out to varying degrees, although Baez was clearly on a different level, sparked by more playing time and a shift back to his natural position, shortstop – a change that went full-time at the end of the year with the injuries and suspension of Addison Russell.  And, while Baez had a great offensive and defensive showing in 2018 at 5.3 WAR, Schwarber had a solid one; in fact, he was much better than most casual observers realized when you delve into the numbers; most notably his 3.2 WAR.

Chicago Cubs: New-look physique helped Schwarber defensively

After a disappointing 2017 that saw Schwarber thrust into the leadoff spot and struggle so mightily that he was sent down to the Minor Leagues, the former first-rounder re-dedicated himself to conditioning and getting into the cliché “best shape of his life” heading into 2018.

While that’s almost always hyperbole with players, Schwarber’s transformation was not. His new slimmed down physique was the talk of the town during March and for good reason.  His body transformed, Schwarber was noticeably different in the outfield, seeming a bit quicker. He also appeared to take better routes to balls hit his way. And, while most of his defensive metrics were buoyed by his outfield assists, he was a positive defensive player in 2018, after being mediocre or less than average in his showings prior to that.

In fact, Schwarber posted 11 outfield assists in 2018, tied with Andrew Benintendi of the Boston Red Sox for most from left fielders. (Mitch Haniger in right field and Billy Hamilton in center were the only outfielders who had more, with 12 each).

Schwarber was third among Major League left fielders in Total Zone Runs and Fielding Percentage, and believe it or not, was the 10th-highest rated outfielder per Fangraphs DEF rating. The guys he was sandwiched between? Kevin Pillar and Mike Trout. Yep. That Mike Trout.

Chicago Cubs: Schwarber rode walks and dingers all season long

Kyle Schwarber can hit. He also knows how to control the strike zone, almost too well. If you doubt my word, just look at the stats. Through 1086 career at-bats (1274 PA), Schwarber has hit 72 home runs and has walked at a nearly 14 percent clip.

Through his first 1071 career at-bats (1211 PA), consistently great Cubs’ slugger, Anthony Rizzo, had 39 home runs and walked roughly 10 percent of the time. Kyle Schwarber is 25 years old, as was Anthony Rizzo in the season following those numbers above.

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Another parallel between the two was the narrative early in their careers that the lefty sluggers could not and would not hit southpaws. Rizzo turned that weakness into a strength by adjusting, and Schwarber is still waiting for a chance to do that if Joe Maddon would let him hit lefties more frequently (Schwarber did post a .352 OBP against southpaws despite low slugging and batting averages).

Last season, Kyle Schwarber walked at a 15.3 percent clip, trailing only Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Aaron Hicks among MLB outfielders. Joey Votto and Carlos Santana were the only other position players to walk at a higher rate than Schwarber. I’d also contend that the Cubs left fielder would have walked more if we had robot umps rather than human umpires, who seemed to have a slightly unfair zone for the slugger, but that’s a story for when the hot stove cools down (if it ever heats up this offseason).

Schwarber also hit 26 home runs in a mere 428 at-bats, good enough for second on the Cubs in 2018, behind only the breakout performance of Baez. His slugging percentage (which was above .500 for most of the season) settled in at .467 for the year after a slump in July/August and injury in September, which was basically the same as Anthony Rizzo’s .470 for the season.

Chicago Cubs: A back injury and slump late cost Schwarber with fans

With a solid July or August, Kyle Schwarber would have posted a 4.0 WAR season in 2018, but alas, it seems it’s never enough for Cubs fans. The calls for trading Schwarber (or possibly Albert Almora or Ian Happ) after a disappointing end to the season have become fairly loud, amplified by Theo Epstein’s season-ending discussion on production over potential.

However, my contention would be that Schwarber did produce, at a very solid and respectable level, and will very easily continue his progressive ascent towards what fans truly want him to be: a middle of the order slugger to compliment Rizzo, Bryant and, now, Baez. If 2018 was any indication, he will certainly continue to walk and hit bombs very frequently.

With any luck, 2019 will see Schwarber break out in much the same way Baez did this year.  Put him at full potential in the middle of an order with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist Javier Baez… look out…and that’s not even accounting for possibly adding the guy who beat him in the Home Run Derby: Bryce Harper.