Chicago Cubs: Examining PECOTA projections for the offense in 2019

PECOTA projections are officially out and that means a dive into what the numbers predict and whether the Chicago Cubs offense can rise from the ashes.

For Chicago Cubs fans not sure about what PECOTA rankings entail, join the club. It is a system from Baseball Prospectus which stands to measure player performance based on a comparison with historical player-seasons. The three elements included in this tracking system are a player’s Major League equivalencies, baseline forecasts, and a career-path adjustment.

These measures, first, predict how a player will produce, based on data of their Minor League stats. Makes sense, right? The second measure of this uses weighted averages and regression to the baseline to project a player’s ultimate talent level. Lastly, it measures how that player’s performance has changed over time.

Because of all of these, we are lucky to be able to be given a fancy projection for a specific player, showing how that player’s production for the season could shape out, based on prior historical factors and measures. However, all of this is semantics. Let’s dive into how the Cubs project and whether those projections are attainable. Most importantly, perhaps, is whether or not they’re good enough to get Chicago back to the World Series.

Chicago Cubs: Projecting the infield

We will make our way around the diamond examining how the infield’s production could shape out for the team in 2019.

The Cubs boast one of the most exciting and talented infields in all of Major League Baseball. On one side of the diamond, you have All-Star third baseman, Kris Bryant. Caddy corner to Bryant is All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo. All around Rizzo and Bryant is All-Star and jack of all trades, Javier Baez, the most electric man in all of baseball.

A formidable infield to boost, Baez was undoubtedly the higher producer of the three players. He finished second in this season’s National League MVP race, after posting a career year. Nevertheless, Rizzo and Bryant still did show up, despite the multiple DL stints Bryant had to face throughout the year.

Chicago Cubs: Finding value in the outfield

Starting with Kyle Schwarber, it was refreshing, to say the least in watching him have a great year last year. With all of the expectation of the latter, PECOTA was pretty solidly in favor of Schwarber. They projected him out at 28 HR, 76 RBI, .240/.353/.476, a .349 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and a 2.9 fWAR.

The home run and RBI totals are both exactly in the ballpark of where they should be expected. A counterargument to the RBI total, however, is that it feels too high almost. In his career, Schwarber has not once gone over 70 runs driven in during a season.

The average saw a bump, as well as the wOBA and wRC+ last season. It was a solid enough season for Schwarber to continue to progress. Seeing his PECOTA projections are increased in many areas gives us all hope that maybe, just maybe, he can continue to improve into the player we all hope.

Albert Almora is next. His STEAMER projections see a significant drop-off in almost all offensive categories. The power is expected an increase, but average and OBP are expected to drop. STEAMER has Almora at eight home runs, 43 RBI, .271/.313/.397, .307 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and a 1.1 WAR.

It is challenging to see Almora playing in 53 fewer games next season. While it could realistically drop, Almora is the best option the Cubs have in center field. Happ was a disaster at the plate in striking out a whopping 36.1 percent of the time. Despite the power in that stroke, Happ was barely over replacement level in terms of an offensive player.

It is strange to think the power could increase that much, especially in fewer games. However, it could still see a slight uptick. The wOBA at .307 seems conservative. Almora posted a .334 wOBA last season so it would make more sense to be in the .314-.317 range. Almora is who he is, a great defender, and fun for the team.

Finally, Jason Heyward. Steamer projects him at 12 home runs, 62 RBI, .268/.340/.406, .325 wOBA, 103 wRC+. They project him to finish at a 2.4 WAR. The main brunt of the numbers feels a little high, as Heyward has failed to hit at least twelve home runs since 2015. The slash line feels right on the money with Heyward. Last season he hit .270 so projecting .268 is easy going.

Heyward could certainly reach those numbers. Avoiding time on the DL is critical for the veteran outfielder wants to hit to those numbers once again. Continuing to turn it around heading into 2019 will be essential for both Heyward and the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs: Last but not least and final thoughts

Our beloved leader and catcher, Willson Contreras is the final piece of the offensive puzzle we will cover. STEAMER projects Willy to bounce back strong in 2019. Calling for 14 HR, 57 RBI, .256/.339/.425, with a .332 wOBA and 107 wRC+, they see him leveling out once again.

Most certainly, Contreras can reach these numbers as well as blow right past them. Contreras was dealing with a decrease in overall power and numbers from the strong year before. However, there is full confidence that Contreras will reach, and blow past, the small projections. Our catcher is back.

Most of the PECOTA projections feel right in the ballpark with how their previous seasons have shaken out. Rizzo and Bryant are expected to see their power numbers return, while Baez keeps things hot, and Willy returns to form.

The outfield is what it is, and there should not be a ton of heightened expectation for them.  That being said, the outfield can reach (or even potentially exceed) their numbers just as long as they stay healthy.

It should be another fun season for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.