Chicago Cubs: Examining PECOTA projections for the offense in 2019

PECOTA projections are officially out and that means a dive into what the numbers predict and whether the Chicago Cubs offense can rise from the ashes.

For Chicago Cubs fans not sure about what PECOTA rankings entail, join the club. It is a system from Baseball Prospectus which stands to measure player performance based on a comparison with historical player-seasons. The three elements included in this tracking system are a player’s Major League equivalencies, baseline forecasts, and a career-path adjustment.

These measures, first, predict how a player will produce, based on data of their Minor League stats. Makes sense, right? The second measure of this uses weighted averages and regression to the baseline to project a player’s ultimate talent level. Lastly, it measures how that player’s performance has changed over time.

Because of all of these, we are lucky to be able to be given a fancy projection for a specific player, showing how that player’s production for the season could shape out, based on prior historical factors and measures. However, all of this is semantics. Let’s dive into how the Cubs project and whether those projections are attainable. Most importantly, perhaps, is whether or not they’re good enough to get Chicago back to the World Series.