Chicago Cubs: Should the Cubs make a push to sign Craig Kimbrel?

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The Chicago Cubs went into 2018 with a lockdown closer ready to go in Brandon Morrow. Morrow was solid when he was healthy, but down the stretch, the Cubs bullpen was thin. Should the team spend big on a proven closer this offseason?

The Chicago Cubs have not spent big on closers since Theo Epstein arrived.

In 2015, they relied on Hector Rondon, who was lights-out that season, helping power them through the playoffs, as well. In 2016, they traded for Aroldis Chapman at the deadline but chose not to re-sign him as a free agent in the offseason. Instead, they traded for Wade Davis, who dominated throughout the following season.

They could have signed Davis as a free agent last offseason, but instead, they went for the less expensive option in Brandon Morrow, who they signed to a two-year, $21 million deal with a team option for 2020.

So should the Cubs go against recent precedent and sign free agent closer Craig Kimbrel this offseason? Signs point to ‘no’.

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On the one hand, Kimbrel has been absolutely dominant for much of his career.

He has a 1.91 career ERA and a 0.920 career WHIP in nine MLB seasons with the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox. He has been named to the All-Star team in seven of those nine seasons.

But on the other hand, it’s always risky to spend big on a reliever. Their seasons can be very volatile, and there is generally another comparable option on the market for a lesser price.

There are plenty of instances where teams have signed closers to expensive, long-term deals, only to see their careers take a major downturn afterward. (For example, the San Francisco Giants and Mark Melancon).

Kimbrel struggled early in the postseason. He gave up at least one run in all but one of his ALDS and ALCS appearances. While he seemed to right the ship in the World Series, there’s still some cause for concern going forward. With any reliever, there’s always a chance for a down year.

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Chicago Cubs: Don’t stop doing what worked well

Theo Epstein has rarely resorted to spending high on closers, and there’s little reason to start now. Sure, Morrow didn’t exactly pan out due to injuries. But if he can recover and stay healthy in 2019, there’s no reason he can’t dominate again as he did in 2017. After all, his ERA with the Cubs in 2018 was a minuscule 1.47, and he still accumulated 22 saves.

Especially in an offseason where the Cubs will be fighting to avoid going over the competitive balance tax, a closer is not what they should prioritize spending on. MLB Trade Rumors projected Kimbrel would sign a four-year, $77 million contract. There’s too much of a risk that if the Cubs signed Kimbrel to that kind of deal, he could either get injured or struggle in 2019, and it would be another big contract wasted.

Instead, the Cubs should stay focused on acquiring cheaper, more under-the-radar bullpen options to bolster the group of returners. Assuming Morrow returns to form in 2019, they already have a closer lined up.

In an offseason that includes Bryce Harper and Manny Machado on the market, the Cubs main focus needs to be improving their offense—not spending big on a closer like Kimbrel.

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Sure, Craig Kimbrel could help shore up the Cubs bullpen with Brandon Morrow’s health still potentially in flux. But it’s generally not worth the investment to spend big on a lockdown closer when there are plenty of cheaper bullpen options out there who can get the job done.

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