Chicago Cubs: Making predictions for the 2019 starting rotation

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Unless there is a surprising move made, the Chicago Cubs starting rotation for 2019 is more or less set. How will they perform next year?

One of the biggest strengths on the Chicago Cubs roster on paper going into 2018 was the starting rotation. Inconsistencies and injuries resulted in their performance being overall disappointing, however still solid as they finished pretty strong.

The rotation for 2019 will pretty much be the same but will see Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish both active simultaneously for the first time. Hopefully, the rotation is much more consistent and healthy next year because they will need it. The bullpen had to work very hard and, like 2017, it fizzled out toward the end of the year due to heavy usage with starters not going deep into games.

Time for some early predictions. People pretty much know what they are capable of when healthy, but it is also important to factor in age and health when looking ahead. These predictions will focus on the main five guys: Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish. These will also be “best-case scenario” predictions – which, if we’re being honest, are the best kind, right?

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: He is still the alpha of the pack, even in his mid-30s

Jon Lester is coming off a pretty weird season. The traditional numbers say he was really good, and for stretches of the season he was, but he struggled at times and the peripherals were not always pretty. Still, he found ways to be effective even without his best stuff and finished the season strong. In a big game, he is as reliable as it gets.

In terms of 2019, it has come to the point where the expectations for him are not quite as high on a full season with his age. 200-plus innings pitched and strikeouts recorded seems like a thing of the past, but he can still be very effective even if that proves to be the case.

He has been able to adjust the past year or so to pitch to his defense when the velocity has not always been there. His strikeouts per nine dropped from 9.0 in 2017 to 7.4 in 2018. He can bring it up a bit, but still hard to see it as high as it was.

Like last year he will record plenty of hard-hit outs and get out of some jams. A hope is that the command is a little better because there were times in 2018 where the walks were coming more than desired, though still not at an alarmingly high rate. At 34 going on 35, these would be very acceptable numbers.

Prediction: 180 IP / 3.60 ERA / 1.3 WHIP / 4.10 FIP / 55 BB / 160 K

Chicago Cubs: While Lester is the Alpha, the Professor may be their best

Again, the term “weird” is going to be used here for Kyle Hendricks. His first half was a mighty struggle. He gave up 17 long-balls and pitched to a 3.92 ERA and 1.2 WHIP. Ultimately, that does not even seem that terrible outside the home runs. In the second half, he returned to form, pitching to a 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

This guy is just so good when he is on a roll, and he pitched some of the best games by any Cub in the second half. Dotting the corners with pinpoint command and getting soft contact has been his M.O. for some time, and if all goes right he should keep it up.

Pretty much predicting a standard Hendricks season right here with nothing really bold. Right now it makes sense to see him as the guy to pitch the most innings with the lowest ERA the way he has rolled. Even if he gets off to another slow start, he always seems to bring it around.

Prediction: 200 IP / 3.30 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / 3.60 FIP / 40 BB / 155 K

Chicago Cubs: Hamels still has plenty left in the gas tank

Probably the biggest story of the 2018 second half was Cole Hamels’ performance as a Cub after coming over from Texas. The veteran lefty has had such a good career – it was weird seeing him struggle the first half so much.

Then again, 33 isn’t exactly being on the front nine of a big league career, either. That being said, the conditions and team around him in Texas were not the most ideal and coming to the Cubs was probably the best thing for him.

Now is the time to prove he can still have an effective season from start to finish. He can still put up some good strikeout numbers and have very solid command. Expectations of him in 2019 will certainly be high. Will he put up a sub-2.50 ERA in an entire season? Very likely not, but good numbers like these would be a welcome sight as well.

Prediction: 190 IP / 3.50 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 3.80 FIP / 60 BB / 200 K

Chicago Cubs: Quintana find that consistency he had with the White Sox?

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Let’s use “weird” one more time, shall we? Jose Quintana battled something he really never has before, inconsistency.

He was known for being one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball when he pitched on the South Side. Last season he was honestly more good than bad, but the bad was SO bad it ballooned his numbers a bit. Take away two or three really bad starts and the numbers look a lot better.

The command was not like it typically was for him. His BB/9 overall was 3.5; 4.2 in the first half. In the second half, it dropped down to 2.7 with his xFIP dropping from 4.40 to 3.90. Like Lester, he finished 2018 strong and hopes to build on that.

It is hard for me to say if he will regain his White Sox form, but he is definitely better than his overall 2018 numbers. The way he finished last year was promising as the command got better and he stopped nibbling so much. He can put up some very solid numbers even if he is not what he once was, but returning to his prime form is not 100 percent out of the question.

Prediction: 190 IP / 3.70 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 3.90 FIP / 55 BB / 170 K

Chicago Cubs: Time for Darvish to prove doubters wrong

This is no doubt the trickiest one to predict. Darvish is coming off a season where he pitched just 40 innings before getting injured. He will spend the winter rehabbing and getting back to where he needs to be. A lot of things can happen here with an injury-prone player, but let’s not forget that when he is healthy and on his game, Darvish is really good.

Again this is if all goes well.

Even if everything goes as desired, it is hard seeing him coming off injury pitching over 175-180 innings. It could even be even less and this is definitely being generous. But if he is healthy he can stike out a lot of guys and be dominant. A bold prediction here is him leading the staff in strikeouts because he is very capable of that.

Prediction: 175 IP / 3.55 ERA / 1.2 WHIP / 3.70 FIP / 65 BB / 210 K

Next. Harper rumors already hot heading into November. dark

A lot of factors can change over the course of an offseason, but it is always fun looking at early predictions. Let’s hope they all pan out as well as I’ve penned them here.

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