Chicago Cubs: What if the Cardinals went big in free agency this winter?

You might think the Chicago Cubs losing out on marquee names is a worst-case scenario. But what if one of those guys wound up in St. Louis this winter?

If the St. Louis Cardinals found a way to finally make the impact free agent signing they’ve missed out on the last three seasons, the National League Central could be wide open in 2019. Signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper would put St. Louis back in position to win the NL Central, potentially leaving the Chicago Cubs on the outside looking in.

No one really knows what Chicago will do this offseason. Based on multiple reports, the team isn’t looking to blow past the luxury tax threshold. But it’s hard to imagine Theo Epstein and Cubs ownership standing pat after a disappointing early exit in October.

Meanwhile, St. Louis has missed three consecutive postseasons, their last coming in 2015 when the Cubs eliminated their division rival in the National League Division Series. With longstanding postseason expectations embedded in that city, don’t expect that trend to continue.

Let’s backtrack what St. Louis has done the last few winters, shall we?

Chicago Cubs: What did the Cardinals do the last two offseasons?

The Cardinals acted quickly after watching their longtime rival win what its fan base so desperately wished for. St. Louis signed ex-Cubs outfielder Dexter Fowler in the winter of 2016. They also signed proven reliever Brett Cecil. However, they missed out on impact bats like Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Turner. The Cubs won the NL Central Division for the second consecutive season.

Just one year ago

Last offseason, the Cardinals signed Miles Mikolas, Bud Norris and Greg Holland via free agency. However, their impact move was trading for slugger Marcell Ozuna thanks to Derek Jeter‘s fire sale as the Miami Marlins’ new owner. They also traded Aledmys Diaz, Piscotty and Grichuk after forgetful seasons.

Many thought trading for Ozuna was the big impact bat they needed to get back to the top of the NL Central standings. The Cardinals went on to make a second-half run, winning 22 games in August, but overall, were mediocre in 2018.

Holland didn’t even last the entire season with St.Louis after posting a 7.92 ERA in 25 innings for the Cardinals. They had a chance to solidify a Wild Card spot the last week of the season in a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers but, instead suffered a three-game sweep.

Chicago Cubs: What’s next for the division rival?

Because the Cardinals haven’t made any major splashes in free agency of late, they find themselves in position to make a run at Machado or Harper. The question remains, will they actually be willing to be a big spender?

They don’t have any of their own core players set for free agency, besides Norris, who saved 28 games last season. Yadier Molina is their highest paid player set at $20 million for next season. Their total payroll is estimated at $103 million. The Cardinals definitely have the money to spend.

Looking at the Cardinals outfield for next season if they signed Harper, they’d have Ozuna, Fowler, Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill to go along with the 26-year-old superstar. If they signed Machado, the Cardinals would likely move Paul DeJong to third base. A Machado, DeJong, Kolton Wong and Matt Carpenter infield could open the eyes of the rest of the National League.

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However, you could argue the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals both are in a much better position to win than the Cardinals. The Dodgers have been to consecutive World Series and the Nationals, while regressing in 2018, have a 19-year-old slugger named Juan Soto who could help put the Nationals back at the top of the NL East with Harper. Having perennial Cy Young candidates Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg help, too. If the free agent duo wants to win, why go to St. Louis when they could stay where they are?

There is always the paycheck factor, but I’d be more than surprised if the Cardinals forked more money out than other teams rumored to be in the running. Other teams rumored to be in the running for Harper and Machado include the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres, according to recent reports. But, still, the Cardinals could go all in, especially after missing the postseason for three consecutive years.

Lastly, whether Cubs fans like to admit it or not, St. Louis is a baseball city and always has been. They have a long tenure of always being competitive and playing for division championships. That will likely be the Cardinals pitch to win over one of these two players.

If the Cardinals landed one of the two, they could be favored for the NL Central title in 2019, pending other moves they’d make this offseason. The middle of the order bat would be exactly what the doctor ordered in St. Louis and would put them back on the map after the Cubs and now the Brewers have taken all the attention from them the last three seasons.

I’m still not convinced Chicago won’t be involved in the Harper and Machado sweepstakes, but for now, it seems unlikely. The Winter Meetings in Las Vegas can’t get here fast enough.