Chicago Cubs: What if the Cardinals went big in free agency this winter?

Chicago Cubs: Going back to the Cardinals’ 2015-16 offseason

We all know the Cardinals were in on Jason Heyward in the winter of 2015. They reportedly offered Heyward more money. While it seems the Cardinals dodged a bullet considering Heyward hasn’t become the impact bat the Chicago Cubs had hoped for, St. Louis hasn’t exactly found anyone who could replace him offensively or defensively.

Let’s remember Heyward came off a career season in his one year with St. Louis, finishing the season with a .293/.359/.439 slash-line. This is the guy they traded for after their top prospect, Oscar Taveras, was tragically killed in a car accident the winter before 2015.

They had every intention in keeping Heyward and signing him long-term. The Cubs won him over though, and despite his offensive struggles, he did help the team win its first World Series in 108 years and has improved offensively each season he’s been with the club.

Heyward has been a Gold Glove candidate every season as the Cubs right fielder. Meanwhile, the Cardinals led the National League in errors in 2018. Some of their homegrown players like Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty regressed and now are on different teams. The Cardinals major free agency moves that winter consisted of signing Mike Leake. He’s now pitching for the Seattle Mariners.

They were hopeful their young core of outfielders could make up for Heyward’s absence, but we all know what happened in 2016. The Cardinals missed the postseason for the first time in years as the Cubs won the World Series.

Chicago Cubs: What did the Cardinals do the last two offseasons?

The Cardinals acted quickly after watching their longtime rival win what its fan base so desperately wished for. St. Louis signed ex-Cubs outfielder Dexter Fowler in the winter of 2016. They also signed proven reliever Brett Cecil. However, they missed out on impact bats like Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Turner. The Cubs won the NL Central Division for the second consecutive season.

Just one year ago

Last offseason, the Cardinals signed Miles Mikolas, Bud Norris and Greg Holland via free agency. However, their impact move was trading for slugger Marcell Ozuna thanks to Derek Jeter‘s fire sale as the Miami Marlins’ new owner. They also traded Aledmys Diaz, Piscotty and Grichuk after forgetful seasons.

Many thought trading for Ozuna was the big impact bat they needed to get back to the top of the NL Central standings. The Cardinals went on to make a second-half run, winning 22 games in August, but overall, were mediocre in 2018.

Holland didn’t even last the entire season with St.Louis after posting a 7.92 ERA in 25 innings for the Cardinals. They had a chance to solidify a Wild Card spot the last week of the season in a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers but, instead suffered a three-game sweep.

Chicago Cubs: What’s next for the division rival?

Because the Cardinals haven’t made any major splashes in free agency of late, they find themselves in position to make a run at Machado or Harper. The question remains, will they actually be willing to be a big spender?

They don’t have any of their own core players set for free agency, besides Norris, who saved 28 games last season. Yadier Molina is their highest paid player set at $20 million for next season. Their total payroll is estimated at $103 million. The Cardinals definitely have the money to spend.

Looking at the Cardinals outfield for next season if they signed Harper, they’d have Ozuna, Fowler, Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill to go along with the 26-year-old superstar. If they signed Machado, the Cardinals would likely move Paul DeJong to third base. A Machado, DeJong, Kolton Wong and Matt Carpenter infield could open the eyes of the rest of the National League.

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However, you could argue the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals both are in a much better position to win than the Cardinals. The Dodgers have been to consecutive World Series and the Nationals, while regressing in 2018, have a 19-year-old slugger named Juan Soto who could help put the Nationals back at the top of the NL East with Harper. Having perennial Cy Young candidates Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg help, too. If the free agent duo wants to win, why go to St. Louis when they could stay where they are?

There is always the paycheck factor, but I’d be more than surprised if the Cardinals forked more money out than other teams rumored to be in the running. Other teams rumored to be in the running for Harper and Machado include the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres, according to recent reports. But, still, the Cardinals could go all in, especially after missing the postseason for three consecutive years.

Lastly, whether Cubs fans like to admit it or not, St. Louis is a baseball city and always has been. They have a long tenure of always being competitive and playing for division championships. That will likely be the Cardinals pitch to win over one of these two players.

If the Cardinals landed one of the two, they could be favored for the NL Central title in 2019, pending other moves they’d make this offseason. The middle of the order bat would be exactly what the doctor ordered in St. Louis and would put them back on the map after the Cubs and now the Brewers have taken all the attention from them the last three seasons.

I’m still not convinced Chicago won’t be involved in the Harper and Machado sweepstakes, but for now, it seems unlikely. The Winter Meetings in Las Vegas can’t get here fast enough.