Chicago Cubs: One year of Cole Hamels is not worth missing out on Bryce Harper

Picking up the option for Cole Hamels might be a great short-term move. But if that costs the Chicago Cubs a shot at a big-time name, what then?

Last year, the Chicago Cubs stayed under the luxury tax threshold. But, looking at next season, it seems like a foregone conclusion – this team will likely exceed that mark for the first time in recent memory.

But before we dive into the numbers, it’s important to understand how the luxury tax works. There are three distinct tiers.

Tier 1: $206 Million – 20 percent tax on salary overages

Tier 2: $226 Million – 32 percent tax on salary overages above $226 million

Tier 3: $246 Million – 42.5 percent tax on salary overages above $246 million and top draft pick moved back 10 spots in the order.

Those penalties are just for first-time offenders. They get worse if you go over the luxury tax multiple years in a row. That is why the Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers were careful to stay under the threshold in 2018. They wanted to reset their luxury tax penalties ahead of this winter’s free agent class.

After trading away Drew Smyly and picking up Hamels’ option the Cubs payroll is already estimated to be around $226 million for next year. That number includes arbitration estimates, so it isn’t an absolute figure. However, that number doesn’t include the Cubs doing anything else this offseason, either.

Chicago Cubs: Pitching depth rules – at least right now

Despite the cliche that you can never have too much pitching, the Cubs may have had too many candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation.

In addition to Hamels, Mike Montgomery and Chatwood are under contract for next season and are out of minor league options. The Cubs also have Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay and Duane Underwood Jr. as starting pitching depth in the minors.

So the Cubs weren’t in a position where they had to pick up Hamels’ option. Picking up that option was about making the team better for next season. The Cubs couldn’t go into next season counting on Chatwood – especially after how poorly he pitched last year. Montgomery can go back to the bullpen. He can also once again be insurance in case a starting pitcher suffers an injury.

Chicago Cubs: This team is far from a finished product

The Cubs still have other needs that the front office will look to fill this offseason. The bullpen needs at least some attention. Addison Russell‘s situation may cause the Cubs to do something in the middle infield.

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The team may want a veteran backup catcher. The biggest thing hanging over this offseason is how the offense fell apart at the end of the season and Theo Epstein’s words that they need to shift their focus from talent to production.

However, free agent signings and trades are rarely just about next year. If the Cubs are fortunate enough to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, it will likely be a long multi-year commitment. That player might be under contract longer than anyone else currently on the Cubs’ roster.

So if trying to make the starting rotation a little bit better next season costs the Cubs a chance to add a generational talent, then picking up Hamels’ option was a mistake.

However, I am hopeful that the Cubs plan on exploding past the luxury tax this offseason. Yes, there are gigantic financial implications to take under consideration. However, Ben Zobrist is in the last year of his contract. Hamels’ option is for just one year. Chatwood only has two years left on his contract.

Jon Lester has two guaranteed years plus an option year left on his contract. So perhaps the Cubs go way over the luxury tax for a few years and then find a way to reset their luxury tax penalties.

There is no guarantee that Harper or Machado will sign with the Cubs. But the simple truth is this. Chicago can’t afford this offseason’s additions to perform as poorly as last year’s did. Period.