Chicago Cubs: Could Javier Baez be even better in 2019?

Last season, Javier Baez put it all together for the first time. But still only 25 years old, the exciting Chicago Cubs infielder is far from a finished product.

Chicago Cubs standout Javier Baez is what baseball scouts and fans like to refer to as a five-tool player.  In terms of overall potential and ability, how many guys can match the skill set the Puerto Rican native brings to the ballpark every day?

He can run, hit, throw, field and has big-time power at the plate. He is a flexible and versatile defensive player who is lauded for his instincts and ability to quickly slap down tags on would-be base stealers. (He recently won the 2019 Fielding Bible Award as the game’s best multi-position defender.)

In short, Baez does just about everything well on a baseball field minus one thing; walk. That is the one thing that separates him from those guys in parentheses above.  It’s also the one thing that separates Baez from the guy Joe Maddon always compares him to when he lays off crappy sliders: Manny Ramirez. 

Despite a .290/.326/.554 slash line this year, Baez ranked fifth-worst in all of baseball, seeing just 3.48 pitches per plate appearance, second-worst in O-Swing% (swings on pitches outside the strike zone) at 45.5 percent and 10th-worst in walk rate.

To paraphrase Ron Burgundy, “I’m not even mad about that; that’s amazing.”  It’s pretty amazing he can swing at everything and still be such a productive player.  Imagine what he might be able to do if he were just a little bit more selective.  The nightmares for opposing pitchers coming to the Friendly Confines may grow even darker knowing El Mago is waiting.

Chicago Cubs: What if the Cubs protected Baez all season?

In contrast to the nightmares he would cause for pitchers, imagine the dream come true for Baez if he were able to hit in between guys like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, or even someone like Bryce Harper all year long.

That sure sounds better than being scattered all over the lineup and hitting in front of Jason Heyward, Victor Caratini or a pitcher. (Baez actually hit in every slot of the batting order, 1-9 this season). Having a protected spot in the heart of the order might be something that would do wonders for a free-swinger like Baez.

In June and July this past season, he hit over .300 and got on base more than 35 percent of the time when he started hitting in the middle of the lineup regularly.  He would certainly see better pitches hitting in front of Anthony Rizzo than Kyle Hendricks. No offense, Professor Hendricks.

Even if Baez could be just a bit more selective, the protection afforded him in the meat of the order would enable him to hit for even more power and get even fatter pitches. (And, to be fair, he did get marginally better laying off the slider off the plate in spurts during 2018).  He was already twelfth in all of baseball with a .264 ISO last season; if he adds to that at all, he could easily climb near that .300 mark and be mentioned in the same breath as guys like Trout, Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Khris Davis.

In fact, his ISO has progressed on a consistent upward trend in the past four seasons, going from .118 in 2015 to .150 in 2016 to .207 in 2017 to .264 this past season.  If Baez continues on that upward climb, it’s quite possible he joins the upper echelon of power hitters in all of baseball next season.

Chicago Cubs: Using all fields more effectively

Baez has two key tenets that make him especially dangerous – tremendous bat speed and raw power.

His power to all fields has always been a thing, even dating back to his days in the Cubs’ minor league system. But it seems like Javier Baez sometimes forgets the fact he can hit a ball out to right just as easily as he can pull one out to left (sometimes easier, depending on the pitch he gets).  The young infielder has tremendous power the other way, and it almost seems laughable (or depressing) when he doesn’t take advantage of that.

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It’s not a surprise that the MVP candidate had a breakout year, in large part, by going the other way and hitting with authority.  Baez hit merely five home runs to the right of center field in 2017.

Last year? He clubbed 14 home runs to the opposite field. Before you counter with the fact that he had more at-bats and hit more total home runs in 2018, consider the fact that his percentage of home runs the opposite way in 2017 was 22 percent (5 of 23).

In 2018, it nearly doubled to 41 percent (14 of 34).  In 2017, Baez hit 24 doubles and two triples. This season, he hit 40 doubles and nine triples.  If you look at the data for going the other way, you’ll find it lines up with the home run data as well.

Of the 24 doubles he hit in 2017, only seven went to the right side of the field. In his breakout campaign, 17 of his 40 doubles went the other way. Of the triples, both went to right in 2017, however that’s more a function of triples as it is anything to do with Baez as most triples are hit the opposite way.

Of more importance is the fact that he hit nine total triples in 2018, seven of them going the other way.  The fact that he hit that many “oppo” doubles and triples speaks to his willingness to take what the pitcher gave him in 2018. In total, Baez had 83 extra-base hits in 2018 and nearly half (38) of those were hit to the right of second base.

That willingness to go the other way, coupled with Baez’s raw power, is a perfect marriage and will only get better with time and protection.  Some may credit Chili Davis with this approach, some may credit Joe Maddon. What is certain is that he started putting some of that advice and his own knowledge to work for himself in 2018.

Chicago Cubs: Where will Baez play next season?

As it stands right now, Baez may very well be your everyday shortstop for the Chicago Cubs in 2019 given the situation with Addison Russell.  If that’s the case and Chicago doesn’t bring in anyone else to play short, Baez could be playing one position on a regular basis for the first time in his career.

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No longer will Joe Maddon be able to deploy “El Mago” based on matchups and on a whim. He’d be using Baez as the linchpin of the defense at shortstop on a daily basis.  While some may feel this is a net negative, just imagine what Baez could do when he doesn’t have to adjust his mentality each time he takes the field. You might as well start inscribing his name on a Gold Glove award right now.

While that may seem like hyperbole, just consider that Andrelton Simmons is now in the American League and Brandon Crawford will be 32 years old next season.  Baez also has a better arm than any other shortstop in National League, allowing him to make plays that seem almost otherworldly in comparison to mere mortals manning the position for other teams.

He is also, as mentioned previously, the best tagger in all of baseball and has turned it into an art form that actually gets talked about now. The bottom line is that, with the ability to focus on his natural position, Baez very well could be a Gold Glove winner at the most premium defensive position on the field.