Chicago Cubs: How would Bryce Harper signing impact other outfielders?

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The story of the offseason is already written: will the Chicago Cubs pony up for either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? Only time will tell.

Let’s make one thing perfectly clear. This discussion started a long time ago with Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts. And it’s a lot more than just sizing up two guys, both of whom have tremendous star power and impact potential.

Bryce Harper and the Washington Nationals are watching October baseball the same way as all of us – from their couches. Manny Machado, once a midseason trade target of the Cubs, went from the league-worst Baltimore Orioles to one of the final two teams left standing in the National League in the Dodgers.

It’s infielder versus outfielder, offense versus defense, a right-handed or left-handed bat. Do they go with Kris Bryant‘s childhood teammate or Albert Almora‘s longtime friend? But, at least for now, let’s focus on the possible ramifications of the Cubs opening up the checkbook and signing Bryce Harper.

Chicago Cubs: Trade some outfielders

There are countless articles on the Internet suggesting the Cubs should trade at least one outfielder even if they don’t sign Harper. However, in order to make a trade, you have to find another team that wants to trade for what you are trying to unload. You also need such a team to have something that you think is worth trading for.

During the last offseason there were other teams considering trading away young, cost-controlled outfielders. With the exception of Milwaukee’s trade for Christian Yelich, no other team really made a big trade centered around trading outfielders. The Yelich trade resulted in acquiring a proven guy who wanted to win (not to mention the likely National League MVP). The Cubs would not be looking for another proven outfielder. The Cubs would most likely be looking to trade for pitching.

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The Cubs were one of those teams last offseason considering trading away an outfielder or two. Theo Epstein himself said that he was surprised they did not trade a position player last winter.

If Chicago tries to make a trade after signing Harper, it may weaken their negotiating position. When the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist, they nearly simultaneously traded Starlin Castro to the Marlins. If the front office had tried to trade Castro away later, other teams may have looked at a Cubs roster of Zobrist, Castro, Addison Russell and Javier Baez and thought that not as much needed to be offered up to acquire one of the Cubs ‘extra’ middle infielders.

Jason Heyward and Zobrist probably aren’t going anywhere. Heyward has a full no-trade clause for the first three years of his contract. He then has a limited no-trade for the next two years. The eight-time Gold Glove winner can also opt out of his contract after the third and fourth year of the deal. However, due to the amount of money he is owed and the way he has hit since becoming a Cub, that’s not going to happen – plain and simple.

Zobrist is heading into the last year of his original four-year deal with Chicago. His contract also has a full no-trade clause for the first three years and a limited no trade clause in 2019. Players often use limited no-trade clauses to block potential trades to the teams around the deadline, oftentimes contenders. So trading Zobrist would be difficult.

I’m not sure the Cubs would even want to trade away Zobrist. His contract has been a good one for the Cubs. With the suspension of Russell, the Cubs may need Zobrist to play a lot more second base than he did in 2018.

So just because it makes sense to trade away an outfielder, don’t assume it can or will be done.

(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Don’t expect Harper in center field at Wrigley

Bryce Harper started 59 games in center field this season. But that was for the Nationals. Albert Almora and Jason Heyward are too good defensively to justify playing Harper in center when one of them is also in the lineup. Happ may also play center field over Harper.

Harper would play center field over someone like Kris Bryant, but even that is debatable. The only sure combination of Cubs outfielders when Harper would play center field is with Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist. So if Harper is going to be a Chicago Cubs outfielder, it is going to be in a corner slot. Harper will play left field when Heyward is in right. But he probably plays right field when Heyward is either in center or on the bench.

The other possibility is that they just make Harper the full-time left fielder rather than forcing him to bounce back and forth. Maddon and the Cubs treated Jorge Soler similarly in 2016. Prior to that season, Soler had only played right field at the Major League level. That year, Soler played almost exclusively left field, rather than playing him in right field on the rare occasion when that spot wasn’t occupied by Heyward.

Chicago Cubs: Shifting back to natural positions

Think of Harper in the outfield. That eats up one of the eight spots on the diamond on a daily basis. At the very least, Addison Russell will not be a part of the infield for at least the first 40 games of the season, meaning Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant will see a lot more time back in the infield.

That’s the opposite of some recent trends. At the end of the 2018 season, Bryant spent a lot of time in the outfield to facilitate getting Daniel Murphy and David Bote into the lineup.

In 2018, Zobrist played more outfield than infield for the first time since 2012. However, unless the Cubs acquire another middle infielder during the offseason or prioritize making Happ or Bote the second baseman of both the present and future, pencil Zobrist in as the Cubs’ 2019 Opening Day second baseman.

If Russell is welcomed back to the Cubs after his suspension is over, Zobrist might start playing in the outfield again. The biggest reason to play either Bryant or Zobrist in the outfield would be to stack the lineup with right-handed batters against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Chicago Cubs: Maddon – a master of platoon matchups

If Harper joins the Cubs outfield, it will be a very left-handed heavy group. Schwarber and Heyward are both lefties. Happ is technically a switch-hitter, but he is much better as a left-handed batter than a righty.

So if the Cubs wanted to start an all right-handed-hitting outfield against a southpaw, they would have to resort to Almora, Zobrist and Bryant. However, Harper is the kind of hitter who you only take out of the lineup when you are trying to get him a day off. Anthony Rizzo starts against left-handed starting pitchers all the time and so would Harper.

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However, the Cubs outfield may end up being too left-handed. If some combination of Harper, Schwarber, Heyward and/or Happ is starting in the outfield and Rizzo is starting at first base that is a lot of lefty bats for an opposing manager to target with his left handed relief pitchers. Depending on how well the right-handed and switch hitters (Bryant, Baez, Zobrist and Willson Contreras) are playing, Maddon might have a tough time separating all those lefties in the lineup.

You also don’t want to use up your whole bench pinch-hitting for those left-handed hitters. Again, Harper and Rizzo won’t need to be pinch hit for. So maybe two additional left-handed outfielders isn’t too bad. But there may be some days when you have to factor in Tommy La Stella and/or Happ starting in the infield. If some right -handed bats spend time on the disabled list, such left-handed heavy lineups may be forced into action.

Chicago Cubs: Would this team be prone to matchup weaknesses?

Even if injuries don’t exacerbate the issue, are the 2019 Cubs at risk of turning into a team that is weak against left-handed starting pitching? The 2016 Los Angeles Dodgers had that problem. Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Joc Pederson and Josh Reddick were all left-handed batters who would start against right handed hurlers. Seager and Gonzalez stayed in the lineup against left handed starting pitchers. But the Dodgers had to find righties to start for Utley, Pederson and Reddick.

The Cubs have enjoyed tremendous position player depth during this competitive window. Depending on how you count players such as Bote and Murphy, the Cubs had about 12 regular starters for eight positions this year. Maddon will likely use opposing left-handed starting pitchers as a reason to start right-handed batters such as Almora.

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If Maddon plays guys right, Harper might not give the Cubs too many left-handed batters. And those lefties can give a manager justification for changing things up with the lineup – something we’ve seen a lot already from the Chicago skipper the last four years.

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