Chicago Cubs: Signing Bryce Harper, Manny Machado could handicap team

Chicago Cubs: Reunited with his BFF on the North Side?

Heading into 2018, Bryce Harper stood on the precipice of a major payday. Coming off a 1.008 OPS 2017 campaign, the Washington Nationals outfielder needed to just do what he’d done over most of his career to maintain that cushy status quo.

Instead, he hit .249, striking out a career-high 169 times en route to the first 30-homer, 100-RBI season of his career. So, depending on who you ask, I guess, maybe he did enough to, at the very least, maintain his insanely high value heading into free agency this offseason.

If you focus on his post-All-Star Break numbers, he absolutely accomplished that goal. In the second half, Harper slashed .300/.434/.538, while cutting down on his strikeout tendencies shown prior to the Midsummer Classic.

But his Nationals failed to reach the postseason, as the upstart Atlanta Braves upset the order of things in the National League East. With Harper watching the postseason from the comfort of his home, he knows in just a few weeks, he and Manny Machado will become the story around Major League Baseball.

Chicago Cubs: Another rumor that just won’t go away

Ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs and Manny Machado seemed to be rumored on a daily basis. The Baltimore Orioles were in free-fall and had to finally part ways with their franchise cornerstone to recover at least some value in losing him.

But, instead of forming a super-infield with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, Machado wound up with the Cubs’ NLCS foe from each of the previous two seasons in the Dodgers. Although his numbers took a bit of a hit after going from Baltimore to Los Angeles, the infielder still gave the Dodgers a boost as they won a fifth-straight NL West title.

On the year, Machado ranked ninth in baseball with 37 home runs, driving in 107 runs to go along with a .905 OPS. He struggled in the NLDS, hitting just .176 with a pair of home runs against Atlanta.

A big chunk of change undoubtedly rests on what he’s able to do in the NLCS against Milwaukee and, if the Dodgers advance to the Fall Classic for a second-straight year, all eyes will be on Machado.

Chicago Cubs: Here’s how these guys could fit in at Wrigley

Make no mistake. Adding either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to a group that already boasts Baez, Rizzo and Bryant is a tantalizing thought, to say the least.

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The longstanding ties between Bryant and Harper have already made the Cubs the odds-on favorite in Vegas to land the 2015 National League MVP. His dog is named Wrigley, Bryant and Harper’s wives are best friends and the two grew up playing together. In short, the writing is on the wall.

As far as the roster, you’d imagine Jason Heyward (who absolutely will not exercise his opt-out clause this winter) shifts over to center field given his defensive prowess and Harper slides into right field, where he played most of his career. Talk about a defensive juggernaut of an outfield.

Then, left field becomes a matter of who’s left when the dust settles on the offseason: Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Albert Almora stand as the likeliest to start in the remaining spot should they be on the roster come Opening Day.

Fitting in Machado is much simpler. The Cubs simply don’t tender Addison Russell a new contract this offseason and then go out and sign Machado. Machado becomes your shortstop, Baez shifts over to second base and all is well in the world.

Chicago Cubs: Such signings could cripple the organization long-term

To this point, the Chicago Cubs have benefitted from a young position player core that has hardly cost anything financially. Those days won’t last forever – and we need to remember that.

In 2018, the trio of Bryant, Baez and Rizzo cost the Cubs just under $19 million. Total. That number will undoubtedly jump in 2019. Rizzo is due a $4 million raise, Bryant will get a small boost in arbitration – as will Baez, who goes through that process for the first time this winter.

That’s not to mention the money tied up in the starting rotation. Let’s assume the Cubs pick up the $20 million option to keep Cole Hamels next season. Between Hamels, Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana (the projected starting rotation in this instance, not counting Kyle Hendricks, who is probably another $5 million-plus), Chicago will dole out a staggering $90.5 million to starting pitchers next year.

Add in the $27.5 million owed to Heyward and that brings the total up to $118 million. That doesn’t account for any other position players (including the Baez-Bryant-Rizzo trio) or any offseason acquisitions. Nor does it consider arbitration payouts or retaining any other guy on the 25-man.

Everyone is talking about $30 to $40 million AAV for Harper and Machado – potential $400 million contracts. Add something like that to the mix and you’re talking about north of $150 million tied up annually in seven players.

The competitive balance tax is as shown in the next three years:

2019: $206 million

2020: $208 million

2021: $210 million

So $150 million for the rotation, Heyward and Harper/Machado + $25 million for Baez, Bryant and Rizzo = $175 million. Can you field the rest of the roster on $30 million and change? No.

Signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado might be the move that puts us over the top in the short-term. But it could very well have crippling financial consequences, leaving the Cubs short-handed in their efforts to stay competitive in the long-term.