Chicago Cubs: Will Willson become the Beast we saw in 2017 again?

Chicago Cubs: Powering the Cubs to the top of the Central

In 2017, Willson slashed .276/.356/.499, and slugged 21 home runs and 77 RBI in 428 at-bats over 117 games. He was, by most measures, one of the best catchers in all of baseball. Per Fangraphs, he was the fourth-highest rated catcher in the Major Leagues, at 3.3 WAR.

He trailed only Gary Sanchez (who, coincidentally, also had a terrible 2018 campaign), J.T. Realmuto and Mike Zunino. Sanchez and Realmuto also had more than 100 more plate appearances in their 2017 campaigns to prop their statistics up a bit more.  Buster Posey was ahead of Contreras in WAR, but also played a ton of first base, so I don’t really include him with the full-time catchers.

After appearing in over 20 games each month of 2017, Contreras suffered a moderate right hamstring strain immediately following his being named NL Player of the Week, and putting up an OPS over 1.000 for July and the first 9 games of August. He then returned and played 15 games in September, but did not hit a home run the rest of the regular season after hitting 21 in his first 102 games of the season.  He did hit two home runs in the 2017 postseason, but batted only .218 (7-for-32).

Chicago Cubs: Failing to live up to lofty expectations

Despite the rough end to last season, Cubs fans were expecting a healthy Willson Contreras to take the next step and continue what he started in 2017 over a full season this year. Suffice to say, that did not happen.

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The guy we saw in July and the beginning of August 2017 never really got it going or showed up at all in 2018.  Contreras didn’t hit more than three home runs in any month of the 2018 season, and he only had one month of more than 10 RBI. Compare that to 2017 where he had three months of more than three home runs and five straight months with more than 10 RBI.

His overall numbers reflect the significant drop-off as well, as Contreras slashed only .249/.339/.390 for the season, a drop of 125 points’ worth of OPS. He also accumulated only 2.6 WAR, a gigantic drop from 3.3 WAR in 2017 considering the lost time and fewer at-bats.

That being said, even with the drop-off, Willson was still, coincidentally, the same exact rank in total WAR for catchers, coming in at fourth-best in the Majors.  While this may seem somewhat promising, I think we all expected Willson to be closer to J.T. Realmuto‘s MLB-leading 4.8 WAR for the season.

Chicago Cubs: So, what went wrong for Willson?

After such a precipitous drop-off in personal production, it’s only natural to posit several different hypotheses or explanations for what happened.  Maybe, Willson’s 2017 campaign was a flash in the pan (I find that hard to believe).

Perhaps, Contreras’ injury at the end of 2017 continued to hamstring him this year (Although, it didn’t seem like it). Maybe, his decline in hitting was just a function of bad timing, pitchers adjusting to him or bad luck.  (Although his BABIP was a pretty similar .319 and .313 the last two years)

Or, perhaps the best explanation is that Willson started too many games early in the year and got worn down before he could even get going in 2018.

To examine the last and, to me, the most plausible explanation for Contreras’ decline in 2018, we need to delve into the numbers.  In 2017, Willson started 16, 18, 19, and 21 games from April-July.  During that same stretch in 2018, Willson started 22, 22, 20, and 18 games. That’s 11 more games he started early in the season in 2018 than 2017.

Overall, through July, that’s eight more games (as he actually started three more games in July in 2017 than he did in 2018; maybe that’s a reason for the breakdown and injury that occurred in early August though, as well?

Chicago Cubs: More off-days the answer next season?

To go a step farther, the athletic and positionally-flexible Willson also was used at a position other than catcher 10 times in 2017, while Joe Maddon only deployed him somewhere else a mere five times in 2018.

So, in addition to starting fewer games earlier in 2017, Maddon also chose to give Contreras a break behind the dish more frequently in 2017 vs. 2018 – while playing fewer games. Had Contreras stayed healthy throughout August and September, that number probably would have been closer to 15 games played at other positions, given how hot Willy the Beast was that year and how much Joe would have wanted him somewhere in that lineup down the stretch.

So, how do we make sure we get that performance from 2017 we so desperately wanted this year as Cubs fans?  Simple: you give him more off-days where he does not play anywhere, and you give him some off-days from behind the plate where he can be deployed in the outfield or at first base.

The hope being, Contreras will be fresh, more energetic (not like he isn’t anyhow most of the time), and hit like the guy we saw for much of 2017. This also means you trust Victor Caratini (or a different veteran catcher if the Cubs go that route) with a few more starts, as Maddon probably struggled with the decision to give Contreras more of-days because there was no veteran David Ross, Miguel Montero, Rene Rivera or Alex Avila to turn to when Contreras needed a blow.

Willson Contreras is still a very young 26 year old All-Star catcher who struggled mightily through much of 2018.  However, just because he struggled in 2018, does not mean he will necessarily struggle in 2019.  In fact, if I were a betting man, I would put some money on the energy, enthusiasm, stick and cannon of Willson Contreras leading the Cubs young core back to a deep postseason run next season.