Chicago Cubs experiencing the effects of a depleted starting rotation

Despite coming away with the win on Wednesday, the Chicago Cubs bullpen is running on fumes and that fact rang out loud and clear in the late innings.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter how you get your wins – as long as you get them. That rings particularly true with just days left in the regular season and a division title on the line.

The Chicago Cubs blew a four-run lead, then walked off against the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday night, securing their fourth consecutive postseason appearance. That had never been accomplished in franchise history – so that’s definitely a nice feather in their proverbial caps.

But there are more than a few fans wondering why such drama was even necessary. Chicago had this game firmly in hand heading into the eighth, leading Pittsburgh by a 6-2 margin. But the bullpen coughed up a pair of runs in both the eighth and ninth innings, necessitating Albert Almora‘s tenth-inning heroics.

Is the bullpen really to blame here? People like to point to the relief corps as the team’s biggest weakness – but that’s hardly been the case in 2018. And, even if it has, I think the blame lies more with the front office and starting rotation than the dance crew under the left field bleachers.

Chicago Cubs: A rotation that hasn’t pulled its weight

Barring a complete-game effort from Kyle Hendricks this weekend, no Chicago Cubs starter will eclipse 200 innings this year. In fact, no one hit that mark for the Cubs last year either, when the team ran out of gas in the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The only guy to break the 200-inning plateau since 2016? Jon Lester back in the team’s 103-win campaign, where he totaled 202 2/3 frames in his Cy Young runner-up season. But this year, it’s been on a whole different level – especially when you look at the guys who were supposed to help carry the load in 2018.

The Opening Day starting rotation consisted of Lester, Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood. Darvish and Chatwood, the Cubs’ two big splashes in the offseason, were the keys to this whole thing.

And, looking back, maybe that was the mistake. I mean, why expect to get anything close to 200 innings from a guy like Darvish who’s battled injuries in his career? As for Chatwood, he hit 158 innings back in 2016 for a career-high, but he’s also battled a sky-high earned run average, as well.

With the book definitely closed on Darvish’s season (and pretty much shut on Chatwood, for that matter, the two combined to pitch a grand total of 143 2/3 innings of pretty awful baseball. Despite pitching one time since Aug. 18 and just five times since the end of July, Chatwood leads all of baseball with 95 base-on-balls.

Darvish made just eight starts before being shut down for the season with an elbow injury. With these guys either pitching ineffectively (or not at all), it was up to the pen to come up with the innings – especially early in the season.

Chicago Cubs: Thank God for Mike Montgomery

If not for Mike Montgomery stepping into Darvish’s spot in the rotation, who knows where we’d be with four games left in the regular season.

The man who stood on the mound for the final out of the 2016 World Series entered this year as the swing-man, despite his stated offseason preference to start. When Darvish hit the shelf, the left-hander got his chance – and he dominated.

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In six June starts, he pitched to a 2.83 ERA. He struggled in July, but then regained his form again in August – the month we learned Darvish wouldn’t throw another pitch this season. All told, he’s pitched to an ERA just under 4.00, splitting his time between the rotation and the bullpen – racking up some 121 2/3 innings.

But here’s where it hurt the bullpen. Montgomery’s role as swing man was a key one – he was the guy capable of eating multiple innings and serving as that bridge to the mid and late-inning guys like Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brandon Morrow.

Instead, we had to go to Cishek early and often. The right-hander has already made a career-high 76 appearances this year (basically half the Cubs’ games) – and will likely surpass his career-high innings total this weekend.

Going to Cishek earlier meant, in turn, you then went to Carl Edwards, Justin Wilson, Strop and Morrow more often than you’d prefer. Then, once Morrow hit the shelf, not only were we subtracting from the front of the pen, but the back, as well. Toss in a Pedro Strop injury in mid-September and it’s pretty much a miracle these guys have held it together this long.