Chicago Cubs are ready to battle against postseason aces in October

Chicago Cubs: Kicking it up a notch against the best

In those 21 games, the Cubs faced seven starting pitchers (Jacob deGrom, Mike Foltynewicz, Aaron Nola, Jhoulys Chacin, Max Scherzer, Chacin again and Patrick Corbin) who are in the top 30 in Fangraphs total WAR for pitchers this season.

In those games, we went 6-1. That means in all the other games, against starting pitchers outside the top 30 this season, we were mediocre, going 6-8. When you delve into the numbers, it gets even crazier (or hopeful, if you’re a believer that the Cubs can make another World Series run this postseason).

In the seven games against top 30 pitchers, we scored 2.71 runs (19 total in 7 games) off the starting pitcher. In the 14 games against pitchers not in that top 30 group, we scored 1.57 runs against each starter (22 total runs in 14 games).

Your eyes didn’t deceive you; we actually scored 1.14 runs more against great starting pitchers during that span than we did against mediocre or bad (at least this year) starters.

Chicago Cubs: Expanding the viewing glass

To continue this seemingly crazy anomaly, I’ll throw in some of the elite-caliber pitchers we faced in this stretch who aren’t even in the top 30 in WAR for 2018 (add Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey).

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Those are the kind of arms and postseason studs we are likely to see throughout the playoffs, even if we don’t have to face those guys specifically.

Adding those three guys makes 10 games during that 21-game stretch in which we faced a pitcher having a great 2018 or a one-time stud who didn’t have the same kind of year in 2018 they’re used to having (either because of injury or, in Harvey’s case, a little bit of a career derailment that seems to have righted itself in Cincy).

In those 10 games against postseason quality starting pitchers, we went 9-1, with our only loss coming to Max Scherzer (who we just so happened to beat earlier in the summer).

That means the games in which lesser quality pitchers started ultimately gave us a abysmal 3-8 record during that span.

Chicago Cubs: Putting it all together

What do all these numbers, decimals, records, and names mean? Maybe nothing because it’s a very small sample size and I hand-picked the parameters. (Although, I picked those parameters because I was noticing we were still beating a plethora of really good pitchers in the midst of an offensive funk, but we didn’t have a garish winning percentage) But, then again, maybe it does mean something.

Maybe the Cubs are more focused and engaged against great pitchers. Maybe players find a way to scrap, fight, and claw their way to a victory against those stud pitchers, maybe Joe Maddon manages differently, or maybe different combinations of players are used to win in those specific games.

Whether these numbers and records mean something tangible or not, it’s clear that down the stretch, the Cubs know how to win tight ball games against good pitching. They are very good at running up pitch counts early, chasing starters, and then coming back or adding on against relievers. Does this sound like a recipe for success?

Honestly, it sounds a lot like the 2016 version of the Cubs minus some offense. And maybe, just maybe, we started to see a little of that missing offense starting to click out in the desert this week.