Chicago Cubs: Why Cole Hamels should start first playoff game

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Of course, Chatwood and Darvish have been completely underwhelming in 2018. Chatwood’s 93 walks (in just 101 2/3 innings) leads the MLB. His 5.22 ERA and 1.810 WHIP are also brutal as well.

Darvish did not appear in a game since May 20. The Cubs surely would like a healthy, dominant Darvish in their rotation, but he has been anything but that in 2018. In eight starts, the right-hander has a 4.95 ERA. Of course, we now know Chicago won’t see their right-hander again this season due to a stress reaction in his throwing arm.

Chatwood presumably will be left off the Cubs’ playoff roster(s), and Darvish is, by all indications, in the same boat. By process of elimination, that leaves Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, José Quintana and Mike Montgomery as possible starters.

One of Quintana and Montgomery will be the team’s fourth playoff starter and the other will be a reliever. Of course, this is all assuming the Cubs make it to the National League Division Series.

Chicago Cubs: When the time is right, Quintana has to get pulled

Quintana has had an up-and-down 2018 season, holding a 4.33 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 25 starts. Those aren’t terrible for a fourth starter, but advanced statistics show Quintana gets worse as a game progresses.

According to Fangraphs, Quintana’s ERA when a lineup rolls around are as follows: first time through the order-3.02 ERA; second time through the order-3.79 ERA; third time through the order-8.20 ERA.

Quintana has been shaky in 2018, but especially the third time he faces a lineup. The Cubs need more than four or five innings from a starting pitcher leading their rotation. If it was not obvious already, Quintana is not that guy.

Montgomery has had a nice 2018 season, filling in admirably as a starting pitcher in Darvish’s absence. However, he has been a valuable long reliever for the team since arriving in 2016.

Chicago Cubs: Lester can be relied on for consistently strong outings

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In a five-game playoff series, one has to think Montgomery is destined for the bullpen. If Quintana struggles come the fourth or fifth inning, the Cubs could always put Montgomery in the game for at least a few innings, too.

With all of that being said, the only true choices for the Cubs’ top playoff starting pitcher are Hamels, Lester and Hendricks. And really, any of the three are good options for the team.

Lester has a career 2.55 ERA in the postseason, so the Cubs more or less know he will perform at a high-level in October. His 6.69 ERA in eight second half starts is worrisome, there is no doubting it.

Be that as it may, Lester has allowed zero, one and three runs in his last three starts, pitching into the sixth inning every time. One has to think the Cubs would be happy with such production in the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs: Hendricks gets better as the game goes on

Hendricks has experienced his own troubles in 2018, holding an 8.00 ERA in the first inning. Unlike Quintana, though, Hendricks actually gets better as the game goes on. His ERA is 4.13 (innings 1-3), 3.76 (4-6) and 2.45 (7-9), respectively.

Hendricks would give the Cubs longevity no matter where he is in a potential postseason rotation. For this writer though, his high first-inning ERA is too troublesome to start the Cubs’ first playoff game.

I am probably overthinking things when it comes to Hendricks, but ultimately the Cubs have three great choices to start Game 1 of the postseason. Hamels’ success with the Cubs is important, however.

It’s not just that Hamels has been the Cubs’ best starting pitcher since joining the team. It’s that he’s been one of the best starting pitchers in all of MLB, as well.

If Hamels continues performing at or near the level he is currently on, the Cubs would be foolish to not give him the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs. That is a big if, but unless he starts to struggle, he is the most logical choice.