Chicago Cubs: Theo Epstein whiffed last winter – and it might not matter

Chicago Cubs: Promising splits turn into unforgiving signing

Last season, John Lackey wasn’t great. You might think otherwise, but I assure you, that’s largely due to a sense of nostalgia – and nothing more. The big right-hander pitched to a 5.30 FIP and allowed a league-leading 36 home runs. Sure, he ate innings (a novelty in this year’s rotation) – but they weren’t exactly high-quality frames.

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So, this winter, Epstein went out and jumped early, signing Tyler Chatwood to a three-year, $38 million deal. And, to be honest, I counted myself among the fans of the deal. His home-road splits were pretty significant and, like most folks, I thought if he got out of Denver, things might improve.

Boy, was I wrong on that one.

Instead of improving, the right-hander developed literally never-ending control problems. For the first month-plus, swings and misses kept him out of trouble. As of May 16, Chatwood boasted a 3.14 ERA, despite walking five or more batters in five of his eight starts. Then, the wheels fell off.

Since May 16, Chatwood picked up just one win. Sure, that may not be the best measure of a pitcher’s success, but in this instance, it works well. Because, by and large, he was responsible for his not picking up victories. Self-inflicted wounds proved fatal more often than not, leaving everyone with a bitter taste in their mouths.

Chicago Cubs: We just lit $20 million on fire

But really.

For what we got out of Yu Darvish this season, we could’ve thrown $2 million at Lackey and let him serve up dingers for a couple months. At least we’d get some red-blooded Texan quotes to take the edge off.

Instead, we’re staring five more years straight in the eyes, praying the Japanese right-hander comes back healthy and ready next spring. And, if we’re being honest, we have no cause for optimism based on what we saw this year.

Suffice to say, I don’t see him utilizing his opt-out clause at season’s end. This is a long-term love affair and it certainly didn’t start out on the right foot. When the dust settles, the Darvish signing could sit right alongside the contracts Epstein doled out to Carl Crawford (seven years, $142 million) and John Lackey (five years, $82.5 million) in Boston.

Let’s hope it doesn’t play out that way.

Jon Lester and Cole Hamels aren’t getting any younger. Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks both took steps in the wrong direction this season. Mike Montgomery its currently sidelined with inflammation in his throwing arm.

If this is the Darvish we get for five more years, the Cubs could be in real trouble.

Chicago Cubs: The pitching is there – it just needs to perform

Most teams would peek at the Cubs starting rotation in a state of envy. You’ve got three-time World Series champion and five-time All-Star Jon Lester at the helm. His last time out, he turned in his best outing of the second half which, hopefully, means he’s back on-track.

Then, midseason pick-up Cole Hamels follows. This guy has been the best pitcher in baseball since joining the North Siders, matching what Justin Verlander did in his first four Astros starts a year ago blow-for-blow. Given the low-level return Chicago gave up to land him, this deal could prove to be a steal by season’s end.

And, then, you have the duo of Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana. We all know what each of these guys is capable of. As has been the case with the Cubs, as a whole, they just need to go out and execute. 

But heading into a postseason series with some combination of Lester, Hendricks and Hamels with Quintana waiting in the wings? The Cubs could certainly be worse off. For now, it’s just a matter of getting to October.

With Mike Montgomery sidelined and no clear replacement given Chatwood’s struggles, that’ easier said than done. But if the ‘Big Three’ step up and pitch well down the stretch, no one is going to be talking about Yu Darvish by season’s end.