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Chicago Cubs: The postseason rotation – who’s in, who’s out for Chicago?
The Chicago Cubs enter Saturday with their biggest lead of the year in the division. If they make it four-straight October appearances, who takes the ball?
Heading into the season, starting pitching was supposed to be the Chicago Cubs’ biggest strength. After all, Tyler Chatwood seemed to have promising splits outside of Denver and the team replaced Jake Arrieta with big right-hander Yu Darvish.
Well, that’s not how things have played out. Inconsistency has dominated headlines with this group from April on – and the second half hasn’t been much better. Still, there are some clear answers when you think about who gets the ball come October.
Jon Lester is going to start for the Chicago Cubs in the postseason. Period. That is going to happen without a doubt. He’s earned the right time and time again in his career. For the most part this season, Lester has returned to his high quality and consistent way of getting wins and been the true ace of the Cubs’ pitching staff.
In his first 25 starts of the 2018 season, Lester is 13-5 with 3.72 ERA, and he has solidified himself as the lead horse of the Cubs rotation. His last time out, he seemed to figure something out after a tough second-half stretch.
Another lock? Kyle Hendricks. Granted, he hasn’t been the same guy who won the Major League ERA title two years ago, but he’s still got it where it counts. In his first 25 starting assignments of 2018, the ‘Professor’ is 9-9 with a somewhat high 4.11 ERA. That would easily mark a new career-worst, as would his 1.224 WHIP.
Nevertheless, Hendricks has shown flashes of how dominant he can be, and has demonstrated he can flip a switch in the postseason and be a spectacular pitcher. With that in mind, he needs to start in October.
Chicago Cubs: Rotation shaping into form late
Joining this duo? Left-hander Cole Hamels. The former Texas Ranger and Philadelphia Phillie has pitched to a 0.72 ERA in his first four starts as a Cub – putting up some unthinkably good numbers, including a ground-ball rate pushing 60 percent. He’s got the numbers and has the pedigree. Simple as that.
At this moment it appears that these three are the only ‘locks’ in a prospective postseason starting rotation. Obviously, when it comes to the postseason, a team only needs three or maybe four starters because of the off-days MLB implements into the schedule.
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Who’s left?
That’s simple enough. Jose Quintana, acquired last season to serve as much-needed rotation depth, the left-hander has been inconsistent this year. At best, he’s your fourth starter come October. Nothing more.
The biggest question mark? Yu Darvish.
The right-hander has not pitched since May 20. Set to make his first rehab start Sunday at South Bend, Darvish could be the difference-maker for Chicago down the stretch. He’s going to be far fresher than the rest of the arms at Joe Maddon‘s disposal.
In fact, allow me to throw in a caveat. I would take out Quintana if Darvish returns in September and pitches anything close to the way he’s capable of. Obviously, he must also show he can stay healthy for the entire postseason run.
Chicago Cubs: An insurance policy – if he’s ready to go
Regardless of which three or four pitchers start, Mike Montgomery will return to the bullpen to provide a great insurance policy if any of the starters struggle early on in ballgames. That, of course, is also contingent on his health. Maddon could go to Monty to eat up innings to preserve the other arms in the bullpen.
If not, don’t sleep on a guy like Drew Smyly, who seems likely to make his debut with the Chicago Cubs once rosters expand come Sept. 1.
dark. Next. Chicago Cubs: Who is Terrance Gore and what does he bring?
No matter who Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey give the starting assignments to in October, the leashes for each starter are going to be short. So the starters might not play as significant a role as some may think. It’ll take a full team effort form the entire pitching staff to give the Cubs the best chance to bring home another World Series title.