Chicago Cubs: Is the front office too high on Kyle Schwarber?
He may be just 25 years old, but should we stop expecting Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber to turn into an offensive juggernaut?
Let me preface this discussion by saying this. On Friday morning Fangraphs put out a really well-done piece that got the ole’ gears turning on this topic. Personally, their work is some of my favorite out there – so if you don’t already, check them out.
So let’s get right to it. Is Kyle Schwarber overrated by the Chicago Cubs’ uber-talented front office regime? He may be – but it depends how you value a 25-year-old outfielder with 30-homer potential and an above-average arm.
When Schwarber burst onto the scene, he looked like the next big thing, ready to join teammate Kris Bryant as one of the league’s premier talents. In just 69 games (well under half a season), he put up a 130 OPS+, smacking 16 home runs with an .842 OPS for a surprising Cubs team that made an unexpected run to the NLCS.
Chicago Cubs: An injury and a trying road to recovery
Then, 2016 happened. And, at least in reference to the Cubs slugger, it was certainly a tale of two stories. In the first week of the season, he collided with center fielder Dexter Fowler – blowing out his knee and all but ending his campaign.
Or so we thought.
He ruthlessly attacked his rehab work, pushing himself through the postseason and getting into game action in Arizona as the Cubs clinched their first pennant since 1945. Then, he joined the team in the World Series and hardly looked like a guy who hadn’t seen big league pitching in more than six months.
Ultimately, as we all know, Chicago made history.
“I was out after the third game of the year,” he said after the team’s historic Game 7 win over the Cleveland Indians. “I thought my season was over. For these guys to stick with me and push through it with me, it means a lot. It really does mean a lot.”
Chicago Cubs: Drastic action in hopes of improving
So, as hyped as he was heading into 2016, this performance etched his name into Cubs lore. More than a handful of folks expected him to vie for the NL MVP honors last year. Instead, his time as the team’s leadoff hitter ended up in flames and he was demoted to Triple-A Iowa.
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After returning from Iowa, he performed better – although a far cry from MVP-worthy numbers.
He barely hit .250, but, again, his ability to push the on-base percentage kept him in the lineup. That, and the fact he blasted 17 home runs in 61 games.
As high as fans were on him after 2016, no one really knew what to expect after the team’s 2017 campaign ended in disappointment with an NLCS exit against the Los Angeles Dodgers. But, again, Schwarber surprised some folks.
He completely transformed his body in the offseason, dropping a ton of weight and becoming an athletic, versatile piece of the Cubs’ roster.
Again, people bought into it big-time, expecting big things from the young former Indiana University standout.
Chicago Cubs: Struggling with the batting average
Out of the gates in March and April, he warranted such excitement, slashing .273/.385/.584 with seven long-balls. But since that point, he is yet to hit .240 in a single calendar month. Since the All-Star Break, he’s hit a wall, batting just .218 – again leaving us scratching our heads.
He’s a young guy. We know that. Technically, this is just his second full big league season. But for a guy who has a tremendous knowledge of hitting and plus tools, he’s not doing what the Cubs thought (and likely still think) he can do.
Regardless, you’d be hard-pressed to find a player Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer are higher on.
“It’s baseball, so you never know,” Epstein said this spring. “I just know we really believe in the person, and we really believe in the hitter. Yes, I’ve been wrong. But I’ll bet on this guy.”
Epstein puts a lot of stock in the intangibles of the individual. In other words, a hard-working, driven guy like Schwarber has a longer leash than he might in other organizations. But has he really warranted his seemingly ‘untouchable’ label we hear about every year?
It’s hard to say. But you can’t expect that label to stick if he keeps flirting with the Mendoza Line every month. I love the power and on-base potential. He’s improved leaps and bounds in the outfield, as well. However, the simple truth is this: he is not an MVP candidate. He could be someday, but at a point, you have believe what you see, not what you think.