Chicago Cubs: Examining an unusual distribution of innings this season

So far this season, the Chicago Cubs have seen an unusual distribution of innings. This could have an array of consequences come October.

In a lot of cases, the Chicago Cubs usage of pitchers might lead to better rested arms down the stretch. However, some of the pitchers the Cubs have relied upon the most this season may have already been used too much.

The starting rotation has routinely not pitched deep into games. The bullpen has pitched superb, but has been called on a lot. The Triple-A pitching depth has contributed with a ton of quality appearances.

A number of the Cubs regular pitchers have spent time on the disabled list. Joe Maddon has even saved the pitching staff a few innings by having several different position players pitch at the end of blowout games. All told, it’s been a strange season to-date, with Chicago getting innings from some unlikely sources.

Chicago Cubs: Critical depth coming up through the system

I’m defining Triple-A pitching depth as pitchers who have pitched for the Cubs as the Major League Level, but probably won’t be on the postseason roster unless a bunch of injuries force the issue. So far, the Cubs’ Triple-A depth has combined to pitch 139 innings. That’s more than any spot in the starting rotation.

Randy Rosario 32.0
Luke Farrell 31.1
Eddie Butler 17.2 (traded away to the Rangers)
Anthony Bass 15.1
Justin Hancock 12.1
Cory Mazzoni 8.2
Rob Zastryzny 5.2
James Norwood 4.2
Duane Underwood 4.0
Dillon Maples 3.1
Alec Mills 2.0
Jen-Ho Tseng 2.0

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

For the most part the Cubs have gotten ridiculously good results from these innings. True Maddon has at times been careful to get favorable match up when he uses these guys. There also about four spot starts in there.

Only one (Underwood’s) start can be considered a positive outing. A lot of these innings have also been low leverage. But when we compare how well this group has done compared to how well Felix Pena and Dylan Floro did last season, its leaps and bounds better than last season’s triple-A depth.

A couple of these guys are even making the case to be included on this year’s postseason roster. Anthony Bass isn’t just putting up a low ERA (2.93). He is also putting great peripherals such as his ground ball rate. He is out of options, so the Cubs can’t send him back to the minors without risking losing him, but they haven’t wanted to send him down. If it wasn’t for a couple of brief stints on the disabled list, Bass would have been on the major league roster the entire time, since he was first called up.

Rosario is a lefty and he has pitched the most innings out of this group. He’s been on the major league roster so long its getting to the point where it almost isn’t fair to think of him as just triple-A pitching depth.

However, his spot in the major leagues is also largely dependent on the health of the starting rotation and the lefties in the bullpen. If Mike Montgomery ever gets moved back into the bullpen, and Brian Duensing and Justin Wilson are there too; Rosario would give the Cubs four lefties in the bullpen. That is a lot even for a 13-man pitching staff. However, remember Zastryzny was included on the NLCS roster in 2016 against the Dodgers because they had so many left-handed batters.

Chicago Cubs: Guys could be fresh at the end of the year

Last season Kyle Hendricks spent some time on the disabled list. He wasn’t pitching that well before he went on the DL. When he came back, not only did he pitch better, but by the end of the year he was still fresh because his DL stint lowered the total number of innings he threw last season. Sometimes the rest a pitcher gets during a stint on the disabled list can be a blessing for his end of season performances. This year four of the Cubs regular pitchers have been on the disabled list.

Yu Darvish 40 IP this year/186 last year.
Brandon Morrow 30.2 IP this year/43.2 last year.
Carl Edwards Jr. 31.2 IP this year/66.1 last year.
Brian Duensing 31.1 IP this year/ 62.1 last year.

As you can see, everyone from this group will probably throw fewer innings this season than they did last season. Don’t forget Morrow also threw a 13 2/3 of innings in the postseason last year too. If they end up being healthy and fresh for the post season, the DL stints might have been the best thing that happened to them during the regular season.

Chicago Cubs: Needing more depth out of the rotation

This season the Cubs starting pitchers are not going deep into games at all. As a result the total number of innings pitched by the starting rotation will likely be much lower than last year.

Jon Lester this year 120.2 IP/180.2 IP last year
Hendricks this year 120.0 IP/139.2 IP last year
Jose Quintana this year 107.2/188.2 IP last year

Both Lester and Quintana are likely to pitch fewer innings this year than last year. Hendricks inning total was low last season due to his stint on the disabled list. But he has also not been pitching deep into games.

In recent years the Cubs have intentionally tried to limit the number of innings the starting staff threw during the regular season, so that they would be more effective in the post season. This year the Cubs just haven’t been getting enough innings per start from the rotation. So trying to limit the starters’ innings can’t begin to be a concern. These short starts has put added demand on the bullpen.

Recently both Lester and Quintana did pitch an extra inning or two than you might have expected while watching the game. But both pitchers threw way over 100 pitches in those starts. In Lester’s case, the Cubs insisted on giving him an extra day of rest afterwards. In Quintana’s case he was coming off of an 11-day break. He followed up that performance with an ugly 51 pitch first inning against St. Louis.

Chicago Cubs: Tough outings costing the Cubs weekly

Tyler Chatwood‘s starts has put even more stress on the bullpen. Not only has he thrown the fewest innings (94.0) out of anyone who has been in the starting rotation the whole season. He has rarely left with even a decent size lead.

So, in most of his starts he is either coming out of the game early, or with a small lead or the Cubs are playing from behind. Those scenario’s lead to more innings pitched by the bullpen and a lot of those innings are high leverage innings. Its a credit to the Cubs offense that they have scored so many runs on days that he starts, so that Chatwood doesn’t have more losses on his Cubs record (4-5 in 19 starts).

So far this year Montgomery has thrown 87 innings. Last year he threw 130 2/3 frames. Depending on how much longer he stays in the starting rotation, Montgomery might surpass last year’s total. The front office has openly worried about Montgomery throwing too many innings.

His starts haven’t been long and recently his results have not been as good as they were when he first joined the rotation. So once again his starts haven’t done anything to relieve pressure on the bullpen.

Chicago Cubs: These guys are carrying the load

Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Justin Wilson have been healthy and pitching well all year. After a brief struggle with his control in the beginning of the season Wilson is closer to being the pitcher he was for the Tigers than the one he was for the Cubs last season. The problem is that the team has needed them so much.

As explained above no one in the starting rotation has been lasting into the later innings of their games. The other regular guys in the bullpen have missed some time due to injury. If it wasn’t for the surprisingly good performance from the Triple-A pitching depth these three would have been asked to throw even more than they already have.

With two months to go in the regular season, do you think Cishek, Strop and Wilson have pitched too much?

Will the rest from time on the disabled list help a few Cubs pitchers? Might the starting pitchers be in a better place come October because they have had so many short starts this year? I’m not sure, but I’m surprised to see innings spread around the pitching staff this way on a competitive team.