Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks continues to battle long ball, first inning woes

Chicago Cubs: Without location, Hendricks is in trouble

When Kyle Hendricks locates his change-up and sinker below the knees and gets swinging strikes, he can pitch with the best of them. But if those pitches stay up or his sinker leaks back over the heart of the plate against right-handers, things get ugly quickly.

He uses his sinker almost half of the time (46.3 percent) – mixing in his change (29 percent) to make up nearly two-thirds of his pitches. The right-hander lives and dies with his control – as heat maps indicate.

If Hendricks fails to keep pitches either A) down in the zone or B) on the corners, hitters tee off.  So far this year, hitters’ solid contact rate is up to the highest mark we’ve seen from him at 5.9 percent – above the league average of 5.5 percent. Similarly, his ground ball rate is the lowest he’s posted in the last four years.

So, as you might have put together, the fly ball rate? Yep. That’s up, too. And it’s contributed to Hendricks’ career-worst 18 home runs allowed. That mark is particularly worrisome given we still have two months of baseball left to play.

The story is the same as it always has been with soft-tossing guys. If you can’t hit your spots, you’re going to pay. And this season, perhaps more than ever before, Kyle Hendricks isn’t hitting his spots with any type of consistency.

Chicago Cubs: Hendricks can’t make sense of the first inning

Setting the tone early in a ballgame takes a load off a pitcher. Getting out there, putting up a clean inning and getting your guys back to the dish? That does a lot for your confidence, especially when you’re struggling as Hendricks has this season.

In the first inning this year, opponents have put up a staggering .969 OPS against the Cubs righty. That has, in large part, led to his unsightly 8.55 first inning ERA this season. He carries a 13-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so it’s not that he’s going down the Tyler Chatwood path of destruction.

If anything, he might be pounding the zone too much, as he seeks to find a rhythm early in the ballgame. Hitters are laying off pitches out of the strike zone, waiting for mistakes up and out over the plate.

Proof of this? Half of his 18 home runs allowed came in the first inning this season. The secret is out on Hendricks. He wants to establish the zone early – and, in doing so, opponents have learned to look for pitches to drive and have done so with great regularity early in ballgames.

Chicago Cubs: Going with a slightly different look

The tools are all there for Kyle Hendricks to get the job done. It comes down to execution. Of course, that’s easy for me to say as I sit behind my laptop and look through numbers and data.

But it’s for that very reason I remain confident Hendricks will get this sorted out this year. He’s too analytically-driven and numbers-savvy to not see the trends. (As is the Cubs’ stellar sabermetrics’ division).

I’d like to see him go back to his curve ball a bit more (his usage of that pitch has declined by 25 percent over the last four years from eight percent to six) to help keep hitters from sitting on that sinker and four-seamer.

Next: Darvish expected to ramp up amidst uncertainty

All told, he gutted his way through his first second-half start. But as we saw a few weeks ago in San Francisco, he’s at his best when he’s efficient and methodical – not laboring in the early innings as he did once again on Thursday evening at Wrigley.