Chicago Cubs: Why is Anthony Rizzo struggling so much this season?

Usually, when a player fails to put up numbers, there’s a clear cause-and-effect relationship at hand. But in the case of this Chicago Cubs slugger, that’s not so.

Since 2014, Anthony Rizzo has been as consistent as any player in Major League Baseball. So, when he struggled out of the gates, then heated up, few had concerns about the Chicago Cubs first baseman.

But, just days from the All-Star Break, he is again mired in a month-plus slump that’s leaving a major void in the middle of the Cubs lineup. He’s not hitting for power – and is barely hitting at all. Worse yet? Most of the advanced metrics don’t offer a clear-cut explanation.

Sahadev Sharma over at The Athletic penned an incredibly detailed look at some of those metrics – and you should definitely give it a read. Ultimately, Sharma concludes Rizzo should put up the same numbers we’re used to seeing down the stretch. Because, as I said, the numbers don’t make sense.

Chicago Cubs: A tumultuous first half for Anthony Rizzo

Everyone recalls Rizzo’s icy start to the 2018 season.

In March and April, he batted just .149 with one home run and nine runs batted in. Now, there are a lot of other ways to evaluate a hitter, but these tell you a lot right off the bat. A .259 on-base percentage is hardly what we’ve come to expect from Rizzo, even when he’s not hitting for power.

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During this stretch, he was sidelined by back issues. This isn’t the first time he’s fallen victim to an injury like this, and it hardly seemed like something to panic about.

But things turned around quickly. In May, he turned it on, putting up a .984 OPS with seven homers, 28 RBI and six doubles. He drew 18 walks and struck out only 10 times the entire month. In short, he was back to being Rizzo.

That largely continued through most of June. He wasn’t quite as hot, but still put up a .345 OBP in 28 games. Which, at the end of the day, you’ll certainly take – especially from a guy who provides elite defense at first base.

But as quickly as he turned it on in May, Rizzo fell back into a dreadful slump in mid-to-late June. In the last four weeks, he owns a dismal .205/.300/.273 line – with just one long ball. Over the last week, he looks lost at the plate, taking pitches he normally punishes. Joe Maddon actually sat him in the finale against the Giants, seemingly hoping a blow helps sort things out.

Chicago Cubs: Numbers only make this more confusing

In case you still haven’t checked out that Sharma piece I mentioned earlier, there’s one paragraph, in particular, I want to point out. He breaks down the impact of defensive shifts on Rizzo’s numbers this year – and comes away without a reason for the lack of production:

It’s certainly odd that Rizzo is hitting the ball harder and on the ground less often into the shift, but they’re turning into outs much more frequently, but perhaps that’s just as simple as him being shifted a bit more thus far.

Speaking to his harder contact rate, the numbers don’t lie. In his career, he carries a 21.3 percent line drive rate. Last year, it had fallen to 20.1 percent – but this season, it’s climbed to 25.3 percent. Meanwhile, his soft contact rate is 15.8 percent – a full four percent lower than last year.

He’s hitting the ball harder and on a line more often than he did last year, when he spotted an .899 OPS in 157 games. So if it’s not a matter of the type of contact he’s making, what else could it be?