Chicago Cubs: Ranking the team’s top five MVP candidates

The Honorable Mentions

Beyond the players that are to come, it is important to note those who have contributed at a high level but fall just short of official “top five” recognition. These honorable mentions have been instrumental to team success in 2018, but have been outdone by others. Still, they are worthy of high praise.

Pitching and a surprise in the outfield

SP/RP Mike Montgomery – Monty has been a rock since moving into the rotation. Of the pitchers who have tallied at least 30 innings pitched as starters, his is the fourth-lowest ERA in baseball (2.02). If this were the full sampling of Montgomery, he’d probably make the top five. However, his 5.33 ERA in 25 relief innings hurts his case. Monty has been a bit of revelation for the Cubs and has made a case for himself as a full time starter. But he doesn’t make the cut.

RF Jason Heyward – In analyzing the stats, Heyward’s value truly was surprising. His 2018 offensive production has been a welcomed change from the struggles of the past two seasons. Of his 61 runs produced this year (runs scored plus RBI), 50 have come in victories. In short, when he hits and drives in runs, the team wins more often than not. Add to that his consistent and considerable defensive contributions, and it was difficult leaving J-Hey off this list.

RPs Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brandon Morrow – The three-headed monster at the back of the Cubs’ bullpen has been solid. Combined, they have pitched 81 1/3 innings in 2018 and have a 2.29 ERA. Without these three at the back end of the bullpen, the results to their 2018 campaign might look very different. The one caveat – and likely the deciding factor in their omission – is that both Strop and Morrow have spent considerable time on the DL.

Chicago Cubs: #5 – UTIL Ben Zobrist

Zo’s value as a utility man is always a check mark in his “plus” column. Unfortunately, 2017 didn’t represent his best work and many began to opine that his best days may be behind him. What many didn’t know was Zo played through significant wrist pain in ’17.

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It’s clear thus far in 2018 that Zobrist is healthy once again, and his numbers bear this out. Beyond his .296 average and OPS over .800, Ben has been outstanding in Cubs wins.

More than numbers

Being an MVP sometimes is more than just the raw numbers. This rings true in Zobrist’s case, as he has consistently demonstrated in the clutch for Chicago.

Of course it should come as no surprise, considering his performance in clutch situations in 2016. But even the most loyal Zo fan would be a bit surprised to know that he is currently second on the team in game-winning  RBI, with six.

Zobrist lacks the flash and flair of many on the team. He is long-in-the-tooth and about as vanilla as they come. Regardless, the “Vanilla Zorilla” (see what I did there??) is a big reason the Cubs remain a force to reckon with in the National League Central.

Chicago Cubs: #4 – Addison Russell

Russell’s early-season struggles were no secret. Even his manager, Joe Maddon, couldn’t overlook the obvious as his shortstop carried a .231 average with no homers and only four RBI into early May.

Since May 2 though, Russell has been much better. In that span, Addi batted .303. While he still isn’t hitting as many home runs as we’ve become accustomed to seeing, he is slugging .432 in that same stretch of games (compared to a .308 SLUG prior).

Better than you think, all-around

Russell hasn’t been as sharp as often defensively as in years past, but he’s still a great glove man at shortstop. While there has been talk that perhaps Javy would be a better shortstop, the fact remains Russell is among the league’s best with the glove. Fangraphs has Russell ranked as the fifth-best defensive shortstop in baseball, and the best in the NL, edging out Milwaukee’s Orlando Arcia. They also have him as the MLB leader for the position in Defensive Runs Saved (11).

The table above lists the top three Cubs in terms of production in wins as compared to losses. That Addi bats over .200 points higher in those victories indicates a considerable amount of value to the team. Another interesting side note here is that Russell has a single RBI in the 28 team games he’s played in that ended in a Cubs loss.

As Russell goes, at least through half of the 2018 season, so go the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs: #3 – BRYZZO (3B Kris Bryant & 1B Anthony Rizzo)

In looking at the 2018 Chicago Cubs, many would default to the obvious in terms of MVP. Make no mistake, a vote for Bryzzo for  Cubs’ MVP is justifiable. Both have been right in the middle of the team’s successes, and both have fallen short in games wherein the Cubs struggled.

Interestingly enough, the Cubs’ dynamic duo – “Bryzzo” as we’ve come to know them – have had very similar statistical impacts thus far in 2018.

Both players are key contributors in Cubs victories, which isn’t very surprising. But it is a bit unexpected that the two have such a split difference between wins and losses. One would think that players of this caliber would have much more level, consistent contributions. That they don’t is certainly something to note and also a trend that hopefully the two can turn around soon.

Elite talents, but with their share of struggles in 2018

The reality is there’s no way to have any discussion on Cubs MVP and not have these two heavily considered. Rizzo is the NL’s leader in game-winning RBI with nine. Bryant has another four, third-best on the team. Only two players in the entire National League – Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt – are less susceptible to hitting into double plays than Bryant (1.7 percent). Rizzo and Bryant have also each been hit-by-pitch 11 times.

The real question here isn’t why “Bryzzo” are on this list, but rather why are they not FIRST on this list. With each having spent time on the disabled list, fans are seeing firsthand how valuable they are. But truth be told, there are just a couple players who have been better.

Chicago Cubs: #2 – SP Jon Lester

Listing a team’s potential MVPs without including their best pitcher would be foolish. While Chicago has had great contributions from the bullpen, their big lefty ace has set himself apart.

Beyond Lester’s 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), he has been as durable as they come. Jon averages nearly 100 pitchers per start (tops on the team) and, more importantly, over six innings every time he toes the rubber.

Apart from Montgomery, Lester has produced the highest double-play ratio among Cubs starters. Since he is also allowing the fewest baserunners per inning, this translates to a very efficient approach that doesn’t create many opportunities for opponents to score runs. And as any self-respecting baseball fan knows, if you don’t give up runs, you win games.

He continues to be this team’s ‘stopper’

Lester’s ten wins is the second-highest total in the National League and, in addition to his being a front-runner for team MVP consideration, Jon should be booking travel to DC as he’s a near lock to make his fifth career All-Star Game. Of all the players on the list, Jon is the one who can most directly turn a losing streak around, and that sort of value is hard to overlook.

#1 – 2B Javier Baez & CF Albert Almora

It is a cop out to have the pair listed here together, but it’s tough to separate the two. Maddon’s commitment to keeping them in the lineup and willingness to slide them into key spots in the order has made a world of difference to a team that has been very much up-and-down offensively in 2018. The numbers don’t lie:

As important as knowing how much these two contribute to getting runs across the plate in wins is knowing that they contribute in losses as well. Of the ten “regulars” in the offensive rotation, only Ian Happ has a smaller difference between BA and OPS when splitting out wins and losses.

While Almora (.320) leads the team in batting average, Baez leads in most every other offensive category (hits, RBI, runs, stolen bases, HR, OPS). Both have been otherworldly on defense, making difficult plays look routine with remarkable frequency.

The fuel in the engine, if you will

Any way you look at it, the combo of Baez and Almora is the single most critical aspect to the Cubs early season success. These two have been highly regarded prospects in the Chicago system for longer than any of their other current players. That they are finally making good on that promise, and it is a thrill to watch.

Next: Is Britton the missing piece in the Cubs' bullpen?

Now if only we could find a way to combine their names for a clever, Bryzzo-like nickname. Almoraez? Albier? Balmora? Ugh, never mind, just enjoy the show!!