Chicago Cubs: Get Manny Machado! Get Bryce Harper! No, get real.

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Rampant and rabid speculation regarding the Chicago Cubs and big-ticket free agents continues. But there’s way more to the discussion than star power.

While adding Manny Machado or Bryce Harper undoubtedly adds excitement to the Chicago Cubs, too many factors make such moves improbable. Among those are the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), provisions impacting overall team spending and the players headed toward arbitration and free agent seasons.

The CBA imposes costs on free-spending teams

The spending thresholds in the new CBA are as follows: $195 million in 2017, $197 million in 2018, $206 million in 2019, $208 million in 2020 and $210 million in 2021. Teams that exceed these marks will be forced to pay tens of millions of dollars in taxes, with escalating fines for repeat offenders.

Further, teams that are $40+ million over the threshold have their top draft pick moved back ten spots.

Lastly, large market teams will now lose their second and fourth-highest picks for signing a free agent that declined a qualifying offer. These provisions are why 2018 free agency went the course it went. Teams will be sure to negotiate these new waters prudently.

Looking at the Cubs’ arbitration and free agents schedule

Kris Bryant already hit his first arbitration year as a Super 2 player and set an MLB record high arbitration agreement. He has three more arbitration years left before hitting free agency in 2022. It is unlikely, as a Boras client, he would agree to a long-term buy out of his remaining arbitration years and several years past his free agent season. Kyle Hendricks also hit arbitration this year and has two years left before free agency.

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Pedro Strop is a free agent after this season, and most of the core of the current team hits arbitration after this season. And it’s a long list. We’re talking Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Mike Montgomery.

By the start of the 2020 season add Albert Almora and Carl Edwards to that list of players in arbitration. And Anthony Rizzo hits the first year of team options and could enter free agency at the end of the 2021 season.

On top of all that are the big dollar contracts for Jon Lester, Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish.

Chicago Cubs payroll now and in the future

Projecting payroll for any club is tricky as players and numbers shift constantly. Right now the Cubs payroll is at $183 million, about $14 million under the threshold. Looking down the road without being able to predict how all those arbitration deals will play out, we know Bryant will likely set a record second-year arbitration settlement.

Estimates are that moving forward the payroll will be at least $185 million in 2019, $198 million in 2020, and $211 million in 2021. That’s without factoring in all the salary adjustments of the previously mentioned core players.

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

How it all sorts out

The current payroll sits roughly $14 million under the luxury tax threshold. Considering future arbitration settlements for current players, the team could exceed that mark as by 2021 – if not sooner.

That all but rules out a trade for the current $16 million/year Manny Machado. The Cubs could dump payroll in making such a deal, but likely they’d be right up against the threshold at the end.

Teams also must leave space below the threshold in case injury demands they have to go out into free agency or trade for a replacement.

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Adding Machado or Harper is unlikely, to say the least. The Cubs need to retain a large portion of their current core. That alone hurts the odds for a big-time addition. Add in the CBA implications and draft pick ties and it makes it go from unlikely to darn-near impossible.

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