Chicago Cubs: Did the Cubs make a mistake with Jason Hammel?

Chicago Cubs: A rare Theo Epstein misfire

After the dust settled and the warm happy feelings had been exchanged, Theo Epstein explained the Cubs plans for the fifth spot in the rotation.

“Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”

That sounded like a good plan, but that wasn’t exactly what happened. After missing out on Tyson Ross, the Cubs signed free agent Brett Anderson. Inexplicably, the Cubs named Anderson the fifth starter out of spring training instead of Mike Montgomery or Eddie Butler. Both Montgomery and Butler fit Epstein’s goal of a giving an opportunity to a younger pitcher with multiple years of club control. Anderson was an oft-injured veteran with unrealized upside.

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Anderson did not pitch well or for long with the Cubs. He only pitched 22 innings over six starts. During that time he an ERA of 8.18 while giving up 34 hits, 12 walks and only striking out 16. After that Anderson landed on the disabled list and he was eventually released.

Thinking in dollars and cents

Now consider that instead of Anderson that spot in the rotation could have been held down by Jason Hammel for one more year. True Anderson cost less (just $3.5 million). But remember, the Cubs paid Hammel’s $2 million buyout. So instead of 3.5 million for Anderson versus $12 million for Hammel, the decision was really $3.5 million plus $2 million for Hammel’s buyout versus $12 million for keeping Hammel.

No doubt, the right-hander would have cost more to keep than Anderson. Hammel also pitched better in 2017 than Anderson. In 180 1/3 innings over 32 starts Hammel posted a 5.29 ERA while giving up 209 hits, 48 walks and striking out 145 batters.

It felt like the front office thought they wanted to open up an opportunity for a young, unproven starting pitcher to seize the job. But when it came time to pull the trigger on that decision the front office stuttered. The seemed to  feel uncomfortable with such uncertainty in the rotation to at least start the season. If a veteran starting pitcher was going to be the direction they were going to go with the last spot in the rotation, the Cubs would have been better off with Hammel instead of Anderson.

Chicago Cubs: A ‘scenic’ route to two of their original options

Eventually, both Montgomery and Butler joined the starting rotation. But this didn’t happen directly due to the decision to let Hammel go. It happened because Anderson and Kyle Hendricks both suffered injuries.

Last year as a starter, Montgomery threw 69 1/3 innings over 14 starts. During those starts he posted a 4.15 ERA, giving up 58 hits and 21 walks. He also struck out 56.

Butler made 11 starts last year, spanning 51 1/3 innings. During those starts he posted a 3.86 ERA – with a 29-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Both Montgomery and Butler were better starting pitchers than Anderson was last season. But neither of the younger cost controlled pitchers exactly seized a spot in the rotation.

Chicago Cubs: Bringing in the big gun of Jose Quintana

The rest of the Cubs team wasn’t exactly off to a great first half last season. They hovered around .500. John Lackey was holding down a spot in the rotation, but he wasn’t pitching as well as he did in 2016.

That water treading – and the struggles of guys like Anderson, Montgomery, Butler and Lackey – ultimately culminated in the Jose Quintana trade. The White Sox southpaw was the young cost controlled starting pitcher the front office has been trying to trade for, for years. Theo and Jed finally got their white whale.

After the Quintana trade, the team played much better. The lefty signified an immediate upgrade in the rotation. But if the Cubs weren’t able to trade for Quintana, this story might not have a happy ending.

If Anderson and Hendricks didn’t get injured, 2017 could have been a missed opportunity for Montgomery and/or Butler to show if they should be in the starting rotation. Letting Hammel go might have accomplished nothing other than saving some money to have an inferior veteran try to eat up some innings.

Still talking about Mike Montgomery – the safety net

Montgomery is currently back in the rotation to fill in for an injured Yu Darvish. Butler beat out Justin Grimm to earn a roster spot during spring training. However, Butler has spent most of this season on the disabled list.

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The Cubs probably don’t regret letting Jason Hammel go. If they didn’t let him go and find a replacement for him during the 2017 season, the front office would have been faced with trying to replace Hammel, Lackey and Jake Arrieta‘s spots in the rotation this offseason.

But it didn’t work out because of some simple math such as subtract Hammel and add his replacement. A winner didn’t earn Hammel’s spot in the rotation through an open competition. The Cubs were lucky enough that they were able to go outside of the organization to find, as Theo put it, a “…younger pitcher(s) under multiple years of club control – one who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.