Chicago Cubs: Why a six-man rotation makes perfect sense

As the 2018 season grinds on, the idea of a six-man rotation makes too much sense to be dismissed out of hand by the Chicago Cubs.

A recent injury to Yu Darvish may well be a blessing in disguise for the 2018 Chicago Cubs. The reported triceps inflammation doesn’t seem all too serious. In the meantime, his absence in the rotation gets lefty Mike Montgomery the look as a starter that he’s been craving.

If Monty builds on his success from his first start, a six-man rotation may be a concept manager Joe Maddon embraces once Darvish returns to health.

One thing we’ve learned in Maddon’s time as Cubs skipper is that unpredictability reigns supreme. That being the case, it is impossible to predict if a six-man starting rotation is something Joe would consider. For the sake of this piece, let’s assume he would. With that assumption in place, the conversation can shift to the logical reasoning behind such a move.

Chicago Cubs: Rest – could it ever be a bad thing?

Perhaps the most obvious advantage of going with a six-man rotation is the extra day of rest each pitcher gets between starts. In the case of the Cubs, this particular advantage carries an additional allure.

Jon Lester is 34 years old and has a lot of mileage on his valuable left arm. His career splits are quite similar when comparing his starts after regular rest to those where he was given an extra day. In 2017, however, Lester’s ERA was over a run and a half lower with additional rest. This is a promising trend if looking to extend his value year over year.

Beyond Lester, the rest of the staff is somewhat of a mixed bag, but a case could be made that the extra rest wouldn’t hurt. Both Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks have substantially better strikeout-to-walk and WHIP numbers when getting the extra day of rest. Tyler Chatwood was very bad in 2017 with the additional day. However, 2016 he was more than half a run better in those same situations. It may well be the 2017 splits were impacted by a number of starts in Colorado, where Chatwood rarely pitched well.

Darvish is the outlier here. All of his stats – with the exception of strikeout rate – are worse with extra rest. That said, the start to his Cubs career has been a bit shaky, so there’s reason to believe adjusting his routine may do some good.

Chicago Cubs: Preparing for the long haul

This one may seem counter-intuitive. How would getting pitchers extra rest lend itself to preparing for the shorter rotations teams typically deploy in the postseason? It wouldn’t, at least not in that context.

But what it would do provide a built-in control to help manage pitch count and innings count throughout the season. This would (theoretically) keep the arms in position to be used heavier in a late-season playoff push or to be leaned on more heavily once the postseason begins.

For a team that has had three consecutive deep playoff runs, the value of having fresh pitchers entering October cannot be understated. A six-man rotation would give the Cubs a luxury they haven’t had in recent years – innings availability for starters.

Mike Montgomery Himself

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While Monty acquitted himself quite well in his first shot in the rotation, many would point to ERA in saying Montgomery is a far better relief pitcher than starter. This would not be telling the whole story. Yes, Monty’s career ERA clocks in over a full run higher as a starter. However, his peripheral stats – WHIP, strikeouts and K/BB ratio – are actually better as a starter.

In 38 career starts, the left-hander has seen two or fewer runs of support in 15 of those. His stats aren’t good in those games, likely due to pressing or perhaps a poor mental approach. Conversely, when getting at least three runs of support as a starter, he carries a career 3.23 ERA.

He has nine wins in 11 decisions in those 23 games. These numbers compare favorably to the league average starter, so the case could be made that he deserves a shot to show what he has as a regular starter. Since it isn’t likely that Monty will start at the expense of another starter. Slotting him in as the number six starter makes much more sense.

Chicago Cubs: Building value in their war chest

Of all the reasons laid out herein, this is the one that makes the most sense. Building trade value is as important a part of a baseball season as any. Such value creates opportunities to fill gaps midyear that would otherwise go unfilled. It can turn bubble teams into bona fide contenders and contenders into champions.

A pitcher like Mike Montgomery is a valuable asset that many contending teams would want to get their hands on. Unfortunately, contending teams aren’t going to be looking to deal away players that a contender like the Cubs would want. To that end, Monty doesn’t carry much trade value. But if you make him a starter and if he succeeds in that role, that’s a different story altogether.

Teams like Baltimore, Tampa, Detroit and San Diego would covet a cheap lefty starter. Monty is just entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, making him controllable for three additional seasons beyond 2018. This profile of player is one that sellers typically look for as return in any midyear trade. Montgomery as a starter could be a centerpiece to a very good trade package. Perhaps he could even help land the likes of Manny Machado, Chris Archer, Wil Myers or Brad Hand.

Leveraging a six-man rotation would also provide a different opportunity for the Cubs in terms of trade possibilities. With six starting slots, they could look to bring in a starting pitcher without having to disrupt their current unit. It’s a win-win opportunity.

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Will It Happen?

Nobody this side of the manager’s office walls knows for sure. If Mike Montgomery continues to shine in his spot starts, it is worth a look. There are far too many advantages to such a move to dismiss it entirely. If the Cubs are as smart as we hope they are, it just may make too much sense to avoid.