Chicago Cubs: The decision for Butler over Grimm

Always judging health

Health is a difficult thing to factor in when judging a roster decision. Some injuries are just bad luck. However, some players are injury prone. When injury prone players become free agents, the market takes that into account and those players end up signing smaller contracts.

This current injury to Butler might just be bad luck. However, Butler also suffered an injury on August 6th in the minors last season. That injury prevented him from pitching for the rest of the year. So only time will tell if injuries continue to be a reoccurring problem for Butler.

Butler’s ability to start is another advantage that he brings to the Cubs roster. Butler has made 39 career major league starts. This includes the 11 starts he made for the Cubs last season. With both Mike Montgomery and Butler in the bullpen, the Cubs have their sixth and seventh starters at the major league level. Very few major league teams have such options available to them.

However, when moving a pitcher from the bullpen to the rotation, allowing that person to get stretched out (getting used to pitching five innings or more at a time) needs to be taken into consideration. Montgomery has specifically talked about the toll that bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen took on him physically last season.

Moving Butler to the pen?

There also might be some potential advantages to moving Butler to the bullpen. Many pitchers get a little bit of an increase in their velocity on their fastball when they move from the rotation to the bullpen. Some pitchers also focus more on their best pitches, since they are only pitching to a few batters at a time. Those two factors are said to be the reasons Dillon Maples turned his career around after he was moved to the bullpen last season.

However, the Cubs have shown a preference for relief pitchers with a large assortment of pitches. Using several different pitches instead of just a couple is thought to be one of the reasons for Brian Duensing successful 2017 season. So the number of different pitches a relief pitcher uses is just a matter of what works best for each person.

Butler has yet to pitch in the major leagues for a full season. As such he may still have some untapped potential that is yet to be discovered. Perhaps the move to the bullpen will help him to find his niche.

Unfortunately, all of this is still just theory since Butler’s injury has prevented us from seeing him pitch out of the bullpen for more than just those first six appearances.

Joining several other Cubs

Grimm joined several other recent former Cubs that became Royals (Jason Hammel, Jorge Soler, Travis Wood and Trevor Cahill) in their first season after leaving the Cubs. Since signing with the Royals, Grimm has struggled. He has pitched only seven innings over 10 appearances. In that time he’s posted a 21.86 ERA, giving up 12 hits and nine walks, while striking out six batters.

Just like with Butler, Grimm’s stats are a very small sample because he has missed a bunch of time due to injury. Grimm has been on the disabled list since April 24th and is expected to begin a brief rehab assignment soon.

After posting a 1.99 ERA in 2015, Grimm’s last couple of seasons with the Cubs weren’t nearly as dominant. In 2016 he had a 4.10 ERA and last year he finished with an even worse 5.53. Grimm has been in the majors for a while now. So he might be done developing. Instead, he might just be trying to hold on.

Who was right?

So Grimm’s performance isn’t causing the Cubs to regret letting him go and giving Butler his old spot in the bullpen. Of course, Butler might not end up holding onto this spot in the bullpen. The front office did an excellent job of stacking Triple-A this offseason with some viable candidates to both serve as depth and push for a major league job.

Another possibility is that the Cubs reduce the number of pitchers in the bullpen from eight to seven. In recent years the Cubs have carried eight pitchers in the bullpen at times, but not always. Eight pitchers in the bullpen mean only four hitters on the bench. Usually, the Cubs are able to compensate for such a short bench with the versatility of their position players. But at times a short bench overly limits Joe Maddon‘s options.

Think of it this way. In 2017 this spot on the roster was occupied by Jon Jay. In 2018 the Cubs have essentially all the same position players except for Jay and a different backup catcher.

There’s only one

Butler has just over one year worth of major league service time, so his salary is as affordable as they come. Grimm didn’t have a large salary either. He was the first player that this front office took all the way to arbitration. He was asking for 2.475 million, but he lost and instead, he would have received 2.2 million if he stayed with the Cubs for this season. Arbitration contracts aren’t guaranteed until opening day. By releasing Grimm during spring training they only needed to pay him termination pay.

This was Grimm’s last year of arbitration. So after this season, the Cubs might have lost him to free agency anyway. With Butler, the Cubs have at least one more season before he’s eligible for arbitration and then three seasons of arbitration after that.

Both Butler and Grimm are out of minor league options. So it possible that the Cubs would have lost whichever one they didn’t put on the 25 man roster out of spring training.

Next: Cubs focused on current roster

The injuries to both Butler and Grimm make this decision a little bit difficult to judge. But from what little performance we’ve seen of Grimm this season the Cubs don’t regret losing him.

If Butler’s last two or three outings were negatively impacted by his injury and his usual performance will be more like his first three outings, then Butler would clearly be the better pitcher. He is young enough that he should continue to improve. Butler also has many more years of team control, a lower salary and he is an option for the starting rotation.

During spring training this might have seemed like a tough decision. But right now it seems obvious that the Cubs made the right choice.