Chicago Cubs: Bullpen cannot succumb to burnout

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Reflective of the past

Concerning ERA and xFIP, the 2016 relief squad was top ten in all of baseball. Interestingly enough, however, that only equated to a 3.2 WAR, good for 19th in baseball. To put that into perspective, the Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and Miami Marlins all posted more Wins Above Replacement.

The Cubs did finish in the top echelon regarding the number of innings pitched for a teams bullpen. Only the Toronto Blue Jays, White Sox, and Boston Red Sox ended their respective seasons with fewer innings logged.

Last season, with the expectations still enthroned with excellence, the clubs pen failed to live up to their championship-winning season. The squad found themselves overworked and, by the time October rolled back around, outmatched by strong teams.

The significant difference between the 2016 team and the 2017 team is, of course, the number of innings pitched. Imagine this for a second: the 2016 team finished the regular season with 470.2 in 503 total games, while the 2017 group finished with 559 innings in 531 games. It is nearly one-hundred more innings while only totaling only twenty-eight more games. Cubs fans should be hard-pressed to wonder why the bullpen produced such a disastrous season.

Another notable stat difference is traced back to the number of walks between the two seasons, respectively. Last season, the Cubs bullpen allowed 264 bases on balls. The previous season was much cleaner, at just 199. Walks are the bane of a pitchers existence, starting or not, which is another part of the missing equation to such a drop-off.

Let the past be the past

In each of the previous couple seasons, by the time the end of September and beginning of October arrived, the Cubs had firmly entrenched themselves as the winners of the National League Central while looking ahead to the postseason.

These are the pivotal months for teams, and thus it is essential to understand the difference in production between the two seasons, as well as where the Cubs will hopefully finish.

In 2016, in September/October, the teams’ bullpen posted a very respectable 3.18 ERA in 87.2 innings pitched. Their xFIP finished above-average at 3.38 and held teams to a lowly .213 BABIP. Fast forwarding to 2017 and everything changed.

The xFIP jumped to an average of 3.85, while their BABIP went through the roof to a ridiculous .362. In the age-old adage from Willie Keeler “hit’em where they ain’t,” this was precisely the case as the Cubs fell victim to this throughout much of the postseason last year.

In a piece released last postseason by NBC Chicago’s Tony Andracki, he made it clear how much of a rough go the bullpen had during that stretch. According to Andracki, the Cubs had four arms who combined for a 17.06 ERA and 3.16 WHIP, in only 6 1/3 innings. Yikes. Carl Edwards and Mike Montgomery, two of those names, were not good. John Lackey and Hector Rondon were less surprising compared to Edwards and Montgomery, however still frustrating, filling Cubs fans with rage.

Finishing Strong

The Chicago Cubs bullpen in 2018 has already seen 171 innings of action, setting them on a pace for 513 innings through the first 135 games. That is not ideal if the Cubs want to make it a fourth straight NLCS appearance.

The downsides about the staff thus far are how they are striking out fewer batters, while somehow walking more than the previous two seasons. The upside is that they are allowing fewer home runs, and have a lower ERA. They are figuring out ways to strand more baserunners too. Carl Edwards, sans two appearances, has been nearly unhittable. Up until that point he carried a 0.53 ERA.

Cishek coming on strong

Another diamond in the rough has been the workhorse Steve Cishek. Cishek, in 22 innings-pitched, has a 1.71 ERA and has not allowed a home run yet this season. Strangely enough, his strikeout percentage is down, his walks are up, and yet he has just a .226 BABIP. The key, which the Cubs are still trying to find a solution to, is not to overwork Cishek.

The final piece, Brandon Morrow, has of course been lights out. Morrow has a 1.13 ERA, an excellent xFIP of 3.05, and is stranding runners at an 86.7% clip. Morrow does have a single blown save this season. That being said, it is merely a blip on the radar.

For the Cubs goal of dodging an overworked bullpen, the starters need to find a way to pitch deep into games. Tyler Chatwood has struggled with control most of the season so far has averaged five innings per start. Prized off-season Yu Darvish has found his way onto the Disabled List and has failed to perform to the standards of his contract. Darvish is also averaging just 5.0 innings pitched per start.

Next: Chatwood's love affair with walks killing the Cubs

Cubs fans understand how the rest of the season is going to be pivotal. Naturally, as fans are aware for the previous three seasons, the Cubs are going to make an impact come October. You can’t have high expectations after three straight NLCS runs. That being said, it is imperative this teams starting pitching find its groove. Otherwise, the team inevitably finds itself back in the same spot: overworked and outmatched.

In October, that is a recipe for disaster, one the Cubs can’t make again.