Chicago Cubs: With Anthony Rizzo activated, team welcomes in Cardinals

Heading into the Series: Chicago Cubs

Record: 7-7, 4th in National League Central

Record (Last 10): 5-5

ERA: 3.89 (10th in NL)

OBP: .332 (5th in NL)

Team HR: 15 (T-10th in NL)

Team Leader – WAR: Kris Bryant – 1.0 (Fangraphs)

Cubs desperately need consistent results

On both sides of the diamond, the Chicago Cubs haven’t looked like a World Series contender. Sloppy defense, shoddy pitching and an offense that either flails helplessly or throttles opponents leaves us all with more questions than answers.

The one constant throughout the first three weeks of 2018? Third baseman Kris Bryant. The 2015 NL MVP is on a tear to start the season, putting up a 199 wRC+. He’s struck out fewer times than he’s walked and could be on the path to another career year.

Javier Baez, meanwhile, epitomizes this team’s offense, as a whole. He ranks near the league leaders with 14 runs batted in. That’s all fine and dandy. He even had back-to-back two-homer games last week to kick off the homestand. But even with these big performances, he carries a dismal .191/.309/.574 slash-line into this series.

For Chicago, it all comes down to putting consistent at-bats together from top to bottom. Ben Zobrist is one of the best professional hitters in baseball. After his down year in 2017, he’s proving he’s got plenty left in the tank early in 2018.

But it can’t be just Zobrist and Bryant hitting. A healthy Anthony Rizzo could be a huge key – but, if past performance is any indication, he won’t really hit his stride until late May or early June. If he finds his stroke early though, watch out.

Heading into the Series: St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 9-7, 2nd in National League Central

Record (Last 10): 6-4

ERA: 3.30 (4th in NL)

OBP: .321 (6th in NL)

Team HR: 24 (T-1st in NL)

Team Leader – WAR: Tommy Pham – 0.8 (Fangraphs)

Cardinals riding a wave entering this series

After a lackluster start, St. Louis comes into Wrigley winners of four straight contests. Their pitching staff ranks in the top third of all NL staffs in terms of ERA and the offense leads the league with 24 home runs.

Tommy Pham and Greg Garcia are both swinging a hot bat – each carrying an OPS north of .900 halfway through April. Yadier Molina is tearing the cover off the ball with five dingers in just 59 at-bats, while newcomer Marcell Ozuna has driven in 10 runs of his own to help lead the offense.

The status of first baseman Jose Martinez remains unclear. He is battling a wrist injury and losing him would surely be a blow to the Cardinals offense. He is tied for the league lead with 15 runs batted in and is batting .346 so far this season.

Former Cub Dexter Fowler, meanwhile, is struggling badly. Batting just .183, the outfielder is yet to find his stroke at the plate. Getting him going could take this St. Louis lineup from deep to downright scary.

Let’s just hope that waits till Thursday, when the Cardinals leave town.

Two struggling hurlers; an old v. new matchup

In the series opener Tuesday, Tyler Chatwood (0-2, 4.94) squares off against longtime Cardinals hurler Adam Wainwright (0-2, 5.06). Really, what I’m trying to say is this could be a rough go for both bullpens in the opener.

Chatwood has one decent outing and one not-so-great showing under his belt as a Cub. Against the Reds, he twirled a six-inning effort in which he limited Cincinnati to just one run. But if you dug a little deeper, you realize he played with fire. He walked six batters – including issuing free passes to the man preceding Joey Votto on multiple occasions.

Pittsburgh got to him in his last outing, torching him for five runs in five innings.

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Opposite Chatwood, Wainwright looks to be nearing the end of the road. More than a handful of Cardinals fans don’t think he should even be in the rotation at this point. And they may have a point.

Opponents are hitting .286 against the righty this season and he is yet to manage a 100-pitch outing. He failed to get out of the fourth in his season debut. That being said, he rebounded decently in his next start, allowing three earned over seven frames against Milwaukee.

On any given day, Wainwright could serve up a nice BP session or turn in a complete game. It all comes down to his pitch location given he’s lost the ability to overpower most big league hitters.

Lester takes the ball in the finale

Left-hander Jon Lester (1-0, 4.40) starts opposite an up-and-coming Cardinals hurler on Wednesday in Luke Weaver (2-0, 2.08).

Weaver has performed extremely well early in 2018, turning in three outstanding efforts and winning two of them. His last time out, the right-hander allowed two earned – the most in any start this year. In 17 1/3 innings this season, he allowed a whopping one home run. Pair that with the Cubs’ situational hitting and you don’t feel too great about this one – at least not on paper.

Lester, meanwhile, is grinding through another April. After a strong showing his second time out, he turned in another clunker against Pittsburgh last week. He allowed four earned on seven hits, lasting just five innings in a game the Cubs rallied to win in the late innings.

Prediction: Cubs split two-game set

While I’m not crazy about what Chatwood brings to the mound in the opener, I’m even less confident in Adam Wainwright’s declining stuff. I think the offense finds a way to get it done and they run into at least a couple homers on what will likely be another blustery day in Chicago.

As for the second game, I can’t in good conscience go with Chicago. Jon Lester has been largely ineffective in two of his three starts this year, while his counterpart, Weaver, looks absolutely dominant. Pair that with the Cubs’ offensive woes and the Cardinals’ league-leading bats?

I’m no fool.

Next: Weather has not been kind to the Cubs

Still, as we’ve learned, anything can happen in these series. Both clubs always seem to elevate their game when this rivalry surfaces – and I expect more of the same this week at the Friendly Confines.