Chicago Cubs: Bryce Harper is not worth $400 million

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The 2019 Major League Baseball free-agent class will go down in history as one of the best. Many opine that the crown jewel of the class, Bryce Harper, will garner a $400 million payday. Is he worth it to the Chicago Cubs?

Major League Baseball – and, by extension, the Chicago Cubs, has never seen a $400 million contract. In fact, before 2014 and the Giancarlo Stanton contract from the Miami Marlins which reached $325 million, the highest paid player had been former New York Yankees third-baseman, Alex Rodriguez at $275 million.

As we approach the next year’s gold mine of free-agents, the speculation surrounding the first $400 million contract is continuing to catch fire. Bryce Harper is a name linked to such a lucrative deal. However, it is difficult to justify a contract of such epic proportions.

What would it look like?

When the Miami Marlins made their decision to sign Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year, $325 million contract extension, it was notably the most massive contract to date in the history of Major League Baseball.

Stanton was 25 years old when he inked the massive payday. Consequently, the same age that Bryce Harper is currently. Harper will turn 26 in October of this year, which will make him only a few months shy of 27 when he would officially sign the contract.

The contract breakdown of Stanton’s megadeal averages out to roughly $28 million per season, for the next eleven seasons. It does include a final-year $25 million player option. To put it differently, it would cost the Yankees $10 million to buy Stanton out.

Setting the bar

Being that the Marlins, and Stanton in particular, set the league standard for contracts, it is interesting to think about how a Bryce Harper contract would look.

In theory, the contract will garner at least 15 years. Of course, that would put Harper at 42 years old by the end of the deal, which is highly unlikely he will be playing at that point. Be that as it may, it would all but ensure his next team the guarantee that he would be there for the next decade, at least.

A 15-year, $400 million contract would average out to $26 million per season, which is something the Cubs will have to consider, so long as it would be a smarter contract regarding length than the Stanton contract.

What have you done for me?

There exists in sports this mantra that is carried among sports fans. This innate desire for an athlete to continually deliver high-end production drives many people mad when said athlete fails to live up to unrealistic expectations.

That being said, there should not be an unrealistic expectation for Bryce Harper. It is a known fact throughout baseball that Bryce Harper is outstanding. He was a phenom upon his entering Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, Harper has been a bit of a candle in the wind throughout his professional career.

In 2012, just twenty-one games into his career at Triple-A, Harper officially made the jump to the show. That year, his rookie year, Harper played in 139 games, registering 597 plate-appearances and slashing a respectable .270/.340/.477 with 22 HR, 59 RBI, and a 121 wRC+. Harper won the N.L. Rookie of the Year.

Equally important, the following year, he posted almost identical numbers, playing in 118 games and finishing shy of 500 at-bats.

The injury bug

As it goes, injuries tend to strike at the most unfortunate times, which is what happened to Harper in 2014. One-hundred games into the season, Harper tore his UCL in his thumb, requiring surgery. However, when his injury occurred, he was slashing .273/.344/.423 with 13 HR and 32 RBI.

A mere year later, it was as if Bryce Harper was an entirely new player.

In 2015, Harper posted a career year. He slashed .330/.460/.649 with 42 HR, 99 RBI, and posted a 9.5 WAR, more than double from his previous best. Unhappily, he fell back down to earth in 2016, posting statistically what has been his worst season slashing .243/.373/.441 with 24 HR and 86 RBI. Strangely enough, it was still a productive year.

Harper followed it up with an excellent bounce-back year this past year. He finished the year at .319/.413/.595 with 29 HR and 87 RBI, worth 4.8 WAR.

Would it be worth it in the end?

Ultimately, no. Please understand the argument here is not whether Bryce Harper is worth a massive contract. That much is apparent. He is. In like manner, to justify this much capital to a single player is nerve wrecking.

So long as a contract is worth $400 million, the expectation should certainly be from a team receiving a guy in return who is consistently healthy. In other words, carries an average of close to .300, and hits at least 30 home runs per season while driving in 100+ runs. Harper, throughout the first six years of his career, however, has averaged 25 HR and 70 RBI per season.

Of course, injuries have derailed possibilities of breakout seasons on more than one occasion. Still, when investing a lethal amount of money into one guy, it is imperative that he stays healthy.

The Chicago Cubs should entirely go all in on Bryce Harper. Many fans believe a $400 million investment is wise. The Cubs have the payroll to pull off such a move if they desire. However, due to this, it is difficult to advocate for a contract like this, which is why the Cubs may be hard-pressed to pull the trigger.

A matter of moving money – a lot of it

Seemingly, if the Chicago Cubs wish to make Bryce Harper their next right fielder, they need to rationalize whether or not it is worth it in the long run. The team has current right fielder Jason Heyward under contract through the 2023 season.

Furthermore, Heyward does currently have two separate opt-out clauses within his contract: after this season, and moreover, after the 2019 season, as long as he reaches a minimum of 550 plate-appearances.

With that in mind, it is difficult to think that Jason Heyward will opt out. It is apparent how Heyward has struggled in a Cubs uniform. The market value is thin, which would definitely cause as a discrepancy in player value.

Final thoughts

The Chicago Cubs would entirely be upgrading with the addition of Bryce Harper. Being potential workarounds, the Cubs may be able to move on from Heyward.

Adding Harper would be electric. Imagining a lineup to include Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Bryce Harper is almost unfair.

Next: Series Preview: Cubs head to Milwaukee for weekend showdown

Notwithstanding, Harper nevertheless provides a fresh level of buzz to Wrigley every single day. The Chicago Cubs should do everything they can to make Bryce Harper the next addition. At the end of the day, however, the cost of $400 million is risky business.

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Chicago Cubs: Bryce Harper is not worth $400 million dollars