Chicago Cubs: In a game of inches, this is what to watch for this season

Baseball is a game of inches, continual adjustment and human dynamics. Digging into its nuances can make following the 2018 Chicago Cubs an even richer experience.

Opening Day heralds the return of baseball excitement. For the pure fan in me, that means eagerly watching how well Kyle Schwarber thumps (especially the opposite way), how many guys Yu Darvish fans and whether Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant keep rocking steady.

Digging deeper, the baseball aficionado in me equally loves tracking the game’s many consequential small nuances. Consider how Dexter Fowler’s improved his 2016 outfield defense by positioning a few steps deeper each play. Or how Kris Bryant nearly hit .300 hitter last year by dropping his K rate to 19 percent and upping his two-strike batting average 20 points each of the past two seasons.

So here are five nuances I’m tracking this year. And please share those you are personally watching.

2. Hendricks’ efficiency deficiency

I’ve deeply enjoyed watching Kyle Hendricks make a joke of every low-ceiling scouting report that predicted nothing better than a AAAA-fifth starter. But last year, Hendricks definitely hit a development wall. His rising pitch-count inefficiency is now his biggest hurdle to becoming that true 200 inning-plus ace.

What happened is the league now has a “book” on him. It says once up in the count, he’ll predictably nibble outside the zone before re-setting-up his change. Just wait him out and take your chances with a 2-2 or 3-2 count. Maybe you hit it, maybe not, but at least you push up his pitch count and get him lifted by the sixth inning or earlier.

As his pitches per batters faced (P/BF) keeps increasing, Hendricks needs to adjust.

Year       Pitches     Batters     P/BF
2014       1,156         321           3.6
2015       2,793         739           3.7
2016       2,888         745           3.8
2017       2,276         570           4.0

To get more early outs, Hendricks must become less predictable mid-count. Two or three times a game on 0-2 and 1-and-2 counts, he should bust someone inside in the zone or drop a curveball in. By making hitters guess more mid-count, more bats will offer earlier in the count – including at those out-of-zone nibblers – and get him deeper into games.

3. Jekyll-and-Hyde bullpen style

You’d think life as a Cubs reliever is a pretty sweet deal. The past two seasons, the starting rotation averaged the third-most innings pitched in the National League. The offense scored the second-most runs in the league. And endless bullpen dance-cam fun.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Wrong. Joe Maddon actually burns his bullpen out at a faster rate than other NL playoff teams. By pitching changes per relief innings, Maddon made nearly 10 percent more such changes in 2017 than an average of the other NL playoff teams. This created lots of extra bullpen wear and tear.

But then come October, the Cubs skipper stops trusting most of his relievers with a lead of any size. He goes from all-hands-on-deck to over-using (to the point of exhaustion) just a couple guys. Chapman and Montgomery in 2016. Wade Davis and Carl Edwards in 2017.

It’s an approach that stretched beyond its seams in Games 6 and 7 of the 2016 World Series. Then in 2017 against the Nationals, Maddon so overused those few trusted arms, his threadbare regulars had little left for the Dodgers.

The Cubs brain trust and analytics team must be aware of the pattern. But given the few 2018 trade chips available for mid-season bullpen trades, perhaps this might finally force Maddon to adjust his two extreme bullpen styles. Watch and see.

4. Back to the offensive grinder

In 2017, the Cubs’ high-powered offense slumped significantly in October. Its K-rate jumped from 22 percent to 33 percent. Plus in five games against L.A., the lineup managed just eight runs – all on homers.

In his annual wrap-up news conference, Theo Epstein reflected on this:

“You have to evaluate. Is it the fact that all offense is depressed in October? Is it a small sample? Is it a coincidence?” he said. “It is virtually impossible to answer [with certainty], except to say you are safer to assume there is some element you can control.”

The one controllable element Epstein identified was his young players’ plate approach. He emphasized their need for more consistently grinding at-bats. This means chasing fewer pitches, spoiling more pitchers’ pitches, and employing a better two-strike approach.

Useful criteria are K rate and pitches seen per AB (P/AB). So whenever the Cubs face an elite pitcher, scrutinize how deep into counts hitters battle. Must the opposing starter throw 90 pitches by the fifth inning? When retired, are hitters quickly start chasing or do they first spoil a few tough pitches?

And young hitters who don’t excel at this? Well, watch if their name(s) gets mentioned more in proposed July 31 deadline deals.

5. Heyward’s double stroke

Asked this winter by NBC Sports who will be the Cubs’ 2018 MVP, Jason Heyward answered “me.” Your guess whether this is just sports psychology positivity or his real belief. But with an opt-out clause this year and next, he has every incentive to rebound for one more bite at the free-agency apple.

I’m not foolish enough to bet on this, but the last time Heyward had a walk year (2015), he posted his best WAR (6.6). If you’re looking for a rebound indicator, watch that doubles rate. This was the main difference between his 2015 and 2017. Last year, he managed roughly the same homer, walk and K rate as 2015, but just 17 doubles versus 33 in 2015.

Interestingly, those who think he hits too many grounders and not enough line drives aren’t correct. Heyward’s line-drive rate is essentially unchanged since 2015, and his groundball rate dropped from 58 percent to 49 percent last year.

What has changed is his contact has weakened. This reflects fewer hard-hit one-hoppers going past (or off) infielders and fewer hard-hit line drives getting past outfielders to the wall.

Going Chili to get hot

To my eye, both are symptomatic of a swing exploding too near the center axis of his body. To create more force on contact, activation of hips and wrists should time together further out front. Homerun hitters do this in an extreme way, and contact double hitters more moderately.

Next: Happ-y times at leadoff

It’s too early to know if his winter work with hitting coach Chili Davis will correct any of this. For those who enjoy tea leaves, his doubles rate this spring is twice what it was last camp. However, his K rate also jumped from 17 percent to 25 percent. Does this indicate starting to apply a more aggressive doubles stroke that just needs more regular season reps? Or a small sample aberration?

Impossible to know until the games count. And by then, I hope you enjoy studying all these fun baseball nuances and any shared by readers below.