Chicago Cubs: Arrieta & his place in franchise history

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It’s not like Jake Arrieta ghosted Chicago Cubs fans, but the bromance is officially over. With this new distance, can we now properly place him in franchise history?

Jake Arrieta – the myth, the beard, the Pilates poster boy. The memories are great, but now that he’s onto playing Spencer Tracy/Father Flanagan in Philadephia’s version of Boys Town, it’s a good time to assess his true place in Chicago Cubs history.

This is tricky. His tenure was short, but boy, did his peaks tower: Best trade of the Epstein era. One of the best halves for a starter in baseball history. Second most no-hitters in Cubs history. Third best arm in a stacked title-winning rotation. And the franchise’s fifth Cy Young winner.

But given a mere 4½-year tenure, he never cracked many key Cubs’ career Top 10 categories. Safe to say Arrieta’s jersey number won’t be retired as a true franchise great. (Pop quiz: Who has already forgotten his number? See answer at end of article.) But how high should Jake’s 2015 Cy Young season and his prime four years rank?

Greatest Cubs pitching seasons

To remind, Arrieta’s 2015 Cy Young season began respectably but not auspiciously. After 13 starts, his record stood at 6-5 with a 3.40 ERA, but then he flipped a switch.

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His BAA and BAbip fell from .242 and .312, respectively, to .150 and .208 the rest of the way. His WHIP dropped like a Bruce Sutter splitter from 1.16 to 0.700, and his second-half ERA (0.75) was among the lowest ever for a full-time starter.

To compare against other great Cubs, start with the organization’s five Cy Young seasons: Ferguson Jenkins (1971), Bruce Sutter (1979), Rick Sutcliffe (1984), Greg Maddux (1992) and Arrieta’s 2015.

Let’s also replace Sutter’s 1979 with 1977, which was statistically superior. Next, throw in Lon Werneke’s 1932 season and Bill Lee in 1938. Both were MVP runners-up to position players, thus the NL’s best pitcher in those pre-Cy Young Award years.

Last, toss in Rick Reuschel’s 1977 that was Cy Young-worthy if not for playing on such an average team, and Dick Ellsworth’s 1962 for its amazing WAR.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

A star-studded list of Cubs hurlers

(Cubs historians will note I don’t list any seasons prior to 1921 from the Dead Ball Era. The huge differences in the game make it near impossible to compare the above seasons to, say, John Clarkson’s 1889 when he started 72 games and pitched 620 innings.)

Name (Year) W-L ERA CG IP SO ERA+ FIP WHIP K/9 WAR
Jenkins (1971) 24-13 2.77 30 325.0 263 141 2.38 1.049 7.3 10.3
Ellsworth (1963) 22-10 2.11 19 290.2 185 167 2.63 1.025 5.7 10.2
Reuschel (1977) 20-10 2.79 8 252.0 166 158 3.03 1.218 5.9 9.4
Maddux (1992) 20-11 2.18 9 268.0 199 166 2.58 1.011 6.7 9.2
Arrieta (2015) 22-6 1.77 4 229.0 236 215 2.35 0.865 9.3 8.7
Lee (1938) 22-9 2.66 19 291.0 121 144 3.68 1.220 8.7 7.9
Werneke (1932) 22-6 2.37 25 277.0 106 160 3.53 1.123 3.4 7.0
Sutter (1977) 7-3 1.34 0 107.1 69 328 1.61 0.857 10.8 6.5
Sutcliffe (1984) 16-1 2.69 0 150.1 155 144 2.28 1.078 9.3 3.9

Let’s dig a little deeper

First, let’s deal with Sutter and that crazy high ERA+. His 107 innings show he was more than just a one-inning specialist. However as a closer, his numbers are skewed as he normally would not any hitter twice in a game.

So it feels fair to eliminate Sutter for throwing 120 fewer innings than Arrieta. But does this mean Jake’s 2015 performance is somewhat diminished for having thrown nearly 100 fewer innings that Jenkins in 1971?

Simple answer: of course. Jenkins easily tops this list largely because of that raft of highly effective innings pitched. Not only did Jenkins complete 30 of a league-leading 39 starts, he handled nearly one-quarter (22.5%) of all Cubs innings that year. So even though he has the lowest ERA+ on this list, in proper context, his numbers pop even more impressively.

Here’s how I broke down the list

But after Jenkins, there’s no avoiding some ranking being eye-of-the-beholder stuff. Here’s how I fell:

1. Jenkins, 1971
2. Maddux, 1992
3. Arrieta, 2015
4. Ellsworth, 1963
5. Werneke, 1932
6. Reuschel, 1977
7. Lee, 1938
8. Sutter, 1977
9. Sutcliffe, 1984

I slotted Maddux’s 1992 ahead of Arrieta’s 2015 largely because Maddux’s 39-inning edge – the equivalent of five more Arrieta starts. Plus Maddux faced more than 27 batters in 25 different starts that year. That means he actually needed to game plan facing the team’s best hitters four times a game.

By comparison, Arrieta exceeded 27 batters just 10 times. So in terms of degree of difficulty, the edge goes to Maddux’s season.

That said, I weighted Arrieta ahead of Ellsworth despite the latter’s 61-inning advantage. This reflects Arrieta pitching in a playoff environment most of the season, whereas the 1963 Cubs were largely a .500 team throughout.

Best four-year runs?

Assessing Arrieta’s four peak seasons is even more difficult. Again, no question who tops the list. Jenkins’ six-consecutive 20-win seasons from 1967 to 1972 puts him in an elite class. Only 12 pitchers in baseball history have posted more consecutive 20-win seasons, with only three after 1900 and none after 1933.

In his stretch, Jenkins averaged 306 innings, a 3.00 ERA, 2.77 FIP and 1.072 WHIP. Though I’m not a big WAR guy, Jenkins’ best four-year WAR of 30.8 WAR completely eclipses Arreita’s 19.3 and illustrates just how elite Jenkins was.

For what it’s worth, since 1920, Arrieta’s 19.3 ranked 9th among other Cubs pitchers’ best four-consecutive seasons. Calculating using Fangraph’s fWAR mostly just reshuffled the Top 10, with Arrieta moving up to a more impressive 6th place tie:

WAR, 4 consecutive years fWAR, 4 consecutive years
1. Ferguson Jenkins (1968-71) – 30.8 1. Ferguson Jenkins (1968-71) – 33.6
2. Pete Alexander (1920-23) – 26.5 2. Greg Maddux (1989-92) – 23.6
3. Rick Reuschel (1977-1980) – 26.3 3. Rick Reuschel (1976-1979) – 20.5
4. Carlos Zambrano (2003-06) – 23.4 4. Bill Hands (1969-72) – 20.4
5. Lon Warneke (1932-35) – 22.9 5. Pete Alexander (1920-23) – 20.2
6. Greg Maddux (1989-92) – 21.6 6(t) Jake Arrieta (2014-17) – 18.5
7. Bill Lee (1936-39) – 21.3 6(t) Claude Passeau (1939-42) – 18.5
8. Bill Hands (1969-72) – 20.7 8. Bob Rush (1952-55) – 18.1
9. Jake Arrieta (2014-17) – 19.3 9(t) Carlos Zambrano (2003-06) – 17.5
10. Claude Passeau (1939-42) – 18.6 9(t) Lon Warneke (1932-35) – 17.5

Shorter runs for elite pitchers common

Are these fair rankings? However you cut it, it would appear Jenkins, Maddux, Reuschel and Alexander occupy a higher tier. But since I never saw the old-timers (except Jenkins during his brief early ’80s Cubs return), your guess is as good as mine.

But this examination did separately reveal that most great Cubs pitchers have far shorter tenures that the team’s offensive stars. This includes the five Hall of Famers most associated with the Cubs (Jenkins, Maddux, Brown, Clarkson and Alexander), none of whom pitched more than 10 Cubs seasons.

Next: In last two years' LaStella has turned complete 180

Might a Kyle Hendricks change this? Perhaps, but with just 38 wins in his first four years, he’s got quite a haul ahead to surpass the heretofore not mentioned Charlie Root and his franchise-leading 201 career wins.

(Pop Quiz answer: Jake Arrieta’s Cubs number was 49.)

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Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta’s place amongst all-time team greats