Chicago Cubs: Spring performances leading to increased optimism
Are you another Chicago Cubs fan having a hard time containing your excitement about Cactus League spring baseball? Yeah, me neither.
Spring Training is important, but not also not that important. These games ultimately don’t matter at all. But they give the Chicago Cubs’ regulars some time to find their groove and work out their kinks before the real baseball starts. It also gives the prospects and bench-warmers a chance to prove themselves.
It’s a glorified practice session. Keep in mind, a lot of times they’re going up against a bunch of scrubs. Some of these guys have terrible spring stats and then dominate in the regular season, and vice versa.
Having said that, a successful spring can be a good way to build up some personal momentum ahead of the regular season. Feeling comfortable on the mound or at the plate is more important than stat lines at this point in the year.
So, now that I’ve sufficiently downplayed the significance of good stats during Spring Training, here are four Cubs with good Spring Training stats this year.
Justin Wilson
Remember last season when Justin Wilson forgot how to throw a baseball? That was no good. The team traded highly-touted prospect Jeimer Candelario to the Detroit Tigers to get Wilson and backup catcher Alex Avila. Avila ended up being a lot more helpful than Wilson.
Wilson was having a great season with Detroit, but he completely lost his command once he arrived in Chicago. In 42 games with the Tigers last year, he posted a 2.68 ERA with a 0.942 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings pitched. With the Cubs he could only muster a 5.09 ERA in a paltry 17 2/3 innings pitched. He was so bad that manager Joe Maddon was seemingly forced to just stopped using him.
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His strikeout rate didn’t change when he went from Detroit to Chicago, but his walk rate ballooned all the way up to a staggering 9.7 BB/9. On average, he was putting two people on base every inning he pitched.
Turning the corner?
Wilson is enjoying a solid spring so far, though. He’s yet to give up a run in any of his three appearances. Most encouraging is the fact that he hasn’t issued a walk, either.
But three scoreless innings in Cactus League play is hardly the biggest reason to be optimistic about Wilson in 2018. Sometimes going from one team to another during the middle of a season is a relatively seamless transition. But for other players, it takes them out of their rhythm. Pitchers, in particular, are notorious for this. They’re a meticulous breed.
That could very well have been the case with Wilson. It might just be a matter of adjusting to a new environment. His first-half success with the Tigers in 2017 wasn’t a flash-in-the-pan scenario. He’s proven himself. He was fantastic for the Pirates in 2013 and a solid performer for the Yankees in 2015. Maybe now that he’s had time to get acquainted with his new baseball home, he’ll look more like his former self.
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber isn’t the portly fellow he used to be. One of the biggest stories around Cubs camp this year has been his tremendous weight loss. Take a look at this incredible side-by-side comparison of Schwarber in Spring Training last year and this year. Courtesy of Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation:
It’s not joke. He’s dropped some serious poundage. And that could be a very big deal for the Cubs. Since he arrived in the league, “experts” and naysayers have said he’s destined to a designated hitter in the American League. This new-look Schwarber now has the potential to be faster, which could mean better defense in the outfield.
Additionally, it could result in even better bat speed. Worried about loss of power? Don’t be. He’s hit two home runs so far this spring, and both of them were spectacles. Even he does lose a little bit of power, it doesn’t necessarily mean less home runs. He was already hitting the ball out of the park and over scoreboards. The ball only has to clear to the wall.
Overall, Schwarber’s first full season in the major leagues was a bit of a disappointment. He slashed .211/.315/.467 on the year. For all the hype and anticipation leading into 2017, that was a pretty big letdown. But he still managed to hit 30 home runs, and a look at his seasons splits suggests he started to figure things out later in the year.
A tale of two halves
Despite a less-than-mediocre season slash line, it was a tale of two halves for Schwarber. And his second half was much, much better than the first.
First half: .178/.300/.394, 13 home runs, 82 wRC+
Second half: .253/.335/.559, 17 home runs, 129 wRC+
That second stat line may not jump off the page, but it’s a huge improvement. If he can pick up where he left off, he’ll have a great season. The truth is Kyle Schwarber doesn’t need to hit for a high average to be an above-average player.
Unlike last year, he’ll be coming into this season having played a full year. That’s significant on its own. If he can get on base at a high clip, which he’s proven he’s capable of doing, while continuing to hit for power, he’ll be a dangerous and productive cog in the Cubs’ lineup.
Tyler Chatwood
The Colorado air is a pitcher’s kryptonite. Your grandma could probably take Clayton Kershaw deep if he pitched in Denver. Fortunately for Tyler Chatwood, he’s found his way out of Colorado and into the Windy City.
A career 4.31 ERA might not seem impressive on its face, but again, take into account this was in Colorado. It’s the worst possible place to be if you’re a pitcher. It’s not at all uncommon for Rockies pitchers to sport better ERAs on the road than at home. To bring up a familiar name, look at Jason Hammel. His numbers improved dramatically when escaped Colorado.
In three spring starts, Chatwood has given up one earned run in six innings of work to go along with three strikeouts. A fine line to be sure, but like Justin Wilson and Kyle Schwarber, his spring performances aren’t the real reason to be optimistic.
Chatwood is entering his age-28 season. That’s one of the reasons the Cubs gave him so much money. He’s entering the prime of his career. And if you’ve watched him, you know he’s got impressive stuff. His curveball, in particular, looks very good. In Chicago, you might notice even more movement. According to FanGraphs, his fastball velocity has been climbing recently. In 2017, he clocked in at 95.3 MPH.
Based on his $38 million contract alone, it’s clear the Cubs’ brass are big believers in this guy. And since they’ve reached the playoffs for three consecutive years while winning more games than any other team in the league during that span, I’d say they know what they’re doing.
Chatwood could very easily end up being one of the best back-end starters in the league this season.
Ian Happ
Ian Happ could break out in a big way this season. While I stick by my previous statement that spring stats are more or less meaningless, it’s definitely not a bad thing to see guys tearing it up. And that’s exactly what Ian Happ has been doing. This spring, he’s 8-21 (.429) with four home runs, two from each side of the plate.
Joe Maddon might not be sold on Ian Happ as the Cubs’ new leadoff hitter, but he’s certainly making a compelling case anyway. Sure, you’d like to see more patience, but being the only switch-hitter besides Ben Zobrist on the team makes him an intriguing option.
Even if his rookie year is his floor, he’s already a solid Major League player. In 2017, he slashed .253/.328/.514 with 24 home runs and 68 RBI in just 115 games. But that shouldn’t be his floor. He is going to get better.
Destined to start?
It’s beginning to look more and more like Happ needs to be a regular player on this team. The situation is complicated, though. He’s versatile defensively, as he’s able to play center field and second base. He’s a better second baseman than he is a center fielder, but Javier Baez and Addison Russell make up one of the best defensive infields in the league. The Cubs likely aren’t going to break that up.
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That leaves him in center field. But that position isn’t without competition, either. Albert Almora showed marked improvement at the plate last season. And he’s better defensively than Happ. It’s a complicated problem, but a good problem to have.
Both players might be relegated to platoon roles in the beginning of the season until one of them emerges as the superior option.