Chicago Cubs: Week 1 spring training report

So Far, So Good (Mostly)

Speaking in terms of results, the Cubs have lost only one of their first seven spring contests (winning 4 and tying in 2). This is a good start. But we all know how little spring records matter. In short, don’t pay too much attention to the won-loss record, it isn’t very instructional.

What IS instructional is paying attention to the details and context of those wins. When inspecting the spring to this level of detail, you’ll find a lot of good signs and a few not-so-good.

With runners in scoring position, the Cubs are third in the league in batting average and have the second-best OBA. Maddon has stressed that (new hitting coach) Chili Davis would bring a different approach. Davis emphasizes approach – as this story from The Athletic describes – and this change appears to be paying dividends.

Tough to Get a Read on Pitchers

Regarding pitching, the Cubs are not overwhelmingly impressive. Their ERA is firmly middle of the league, and they are near the bottom in baserunners allowed. All this said it’s one week into Spring Training. I’m not even sure the pitchers are throwing at 100% at this point.

There is some reason for optimism. Once Cubs pitchers get opposing batters to 2 strike counts, they are striking out their opponents quite regularly (64 of 66 0-2 or 1-2 counts have ended in a K). They also aren’t losing too many batters that get behind in the count. In short, pitchers are hitting their spots when it matters most. This was a point of emphasis this offseason, so these results are encouraging.

Standout Performers

In the first week of spring training, pitchers usually aren’t bringing their “A-plus” stuff. Batters are more focused on timing than results. Still, it is always noteworthy to recognize those who are off to a good start.

Batters

Backup catcher candidate Chris Gimenez has hit the ground running in his quest to earn a roster spot. In just eight at-bats, Gimenez has knocked in a team-leading seven runs. All four of his hits have come with runners in scoring position.

More notably on the batting side is Ian Happ, who has been handling leadoff duties most games. Thus far, Happ is batting .500 and has hit three homers. Given this opportunity, he is staking his claim to get a good long look as the table setter and regular centerfielder once camp breaks.

Happ has looked in control and confident at the plate and in the field. Meanwhile, Albert Almora has struggled. Hitless in his seven at-bats and shaky in the field, Almora has to know Happ has a stranglehold on the CF job.

A newly-svelte Kyle Schwarber is offering a new dynamic – speed – to his repertoire. He continues to work counts, walking a team-high three times. But he has also struck out five times in 11 plate appearances. He will need to improve on that if he wants to avoid a platoon situation in left field.

David Bote is one current roster outsider that has shown some things in week one. While making the roster may be a long shot for Bote, he has had a great start this spring. He has shown great plate patience and does not look overmatched. Bote may find himself in the majors at some point in 2018.

Here are a few other notable offensive performers so far this spring:

IF Mike Freeman (.500 avg, 6 runs scored, 6 RBI)

IF Ryan Court (.500, 2B, HR, 4 runs)

OF Jason Heyward (0/5, 2 SO)

2B Javy Baez (2/7, 3B, 2 highlight reel defensive plays)

Pitchers

The most notable pitching observation is around lefty Dario Alvarez. Alvarez is part of a group of three or four players fighting over one open bullpen position. In his first couple of appearances (2 IP) he has struck out five but walked three. He will need to command the strike zone to break camp on the active roster.

Cubs starters have looked solid, even with Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana yet to debut. Health continues to be the primary concern for this group. Darvish was scratched from his first spring start (though it should be noted his was an illness, not a physical ailment). Getting through Spring Training with a fresh, healthy staff is what matters, not the numbers.

Here are some additional pitchers of note so far in Cubs camp:

SP Kyle Hendricks (2 IP, 0 ER, 1 HR allowed, 3 K)

SP Tyler Chatwood ( 1 IP, 1 H, 0.00 ERA)

P Alec Mills (3 IP, 0 H, 4 K, 2 BB)

RP Brian Duensing (2 IP, 18.00 ERA, 2 HR allowed)

Projected Roster

Each week, I will provide and update on the most likely roster scenarios for both the 25 and 40-man roster. To better gauge the fluidity of the roster, I will point out the “last three in” and “first three out.” This will provide a glimpse into the players to watch when it comes to who may – and who may not – make the final cut.

40-Man Roster (Projected as of 3/1)

The following players are currently the favorites to make the 40-man Cubs roster:

*Currently not on 40-man roster

Last Three In:  C Chris Gimenez, P Cory Mazzoni, OF Peter Bourjos

First Three Out:  IF Mike Freeman, P Eddie Butler, P Jen-Ho Tseng

25-Man Active Roster (Projected as of 3/1)

The following players are currently the favorites to make the Opening Day Active Roster:

Last Three In:  IF Tommy La Stella, P Shae Simmons, P Brian Duensing

First Three Out:  P Justin Grimm, IF David Bote, P Dillon Maples

What to Watch for Next Week

With week one in the rear-view mirror, things begin to get serious for players fighting for roster spots. Expect to see the starters get stretched out to 2-3 innings per outing. Pay attention to the pitchers Joe calls on with runners in scoring position or late in games. Who he puts into leverage situations should telegraph who is on the bubble and still has something to prove.

Next: A look back at Wood's legacy

As far as the offense goes, expect to see plenty of David Bote and Mike Freeman. Both will be given every opportunity to prove they belong. Pay attention to situational at-bats, as building “good habits” in these situations will remain the priority for Cubs hitters.

I’ll check back in next Friday with the Week Two report!