Chicago Cubs: This starting rotation could be even better than in 2016

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CHICAGO, IL – JULY 22: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs looks on as Randal Grichuk #15 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the eighth inning on July 22, 2017 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs need consistency – nothing more – from Jon Lester

Bear with me here.

The 2016 Cubs rotation: Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey and Hammel. With that comparison in mind, here’s how I think this year’s rotation members would correlate:

Hendricks (16) – Hendricks (18)
Arrieta (16) – Darvish (18)
Lester (16) – Quintana (18)
Lackey (16) – Lester (18)
Hammel (16) – Chatwood (18)

If you look at this, here’s what it means. Jon Lester needs to be better than John Lackey was (at least on paper) to even out. What was Lackey two years ago? 30 starts and an ERA somewhere around 3.50 (if you look at Lackey’s ERA and FIP, this is about where you’d wind up).

Despite his 2017 performance, I firmly believe this is very much in the cards for Jon Lester. We’re talking about one of the game’s all-time great competitors. Even if you think he’s not an ace, he’s definitely more than a back-end starter. Asking for 30 starts and the majority of them quality isn’t a stretch by any imagination.

Last year, a couple of horrendous starts slanted his overall numbers. I expect Jon Lester to come back with a chip on his shoulder, ready to prove that he’s bringing plenty of value to this Cubs team in the second half of his massive $155 million deal.

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