Chicago Cubs: PECOTA released, Cubs get a mixed bag
I say no–to almost all of this
When it comes to pitching, this is where I don’t agree with what the PECOTA forecasts. Jon Lester leads the team in wins with 13. Kyle Hendricks is second with 12 and Jose Quintana with 12. Even Mike Montgomery (as it stands now) wins more games than Tyler Chatwood. Meh, I don’t see that happening.
When it comes to the new additions, including the return of Brian Duensing–the numbers don’t look that good. Duensing finishes with a 4.95 ERA, much higher than his 2017 season. Steve Cishek posts a 4.39, while Dario Alvarez a 4.78. A stat that might surprise you? Justin Wilson and his 3.17 ERA. That’s about where he should be, but not based off of last year. Here’s to hoping.
And finally, closer Brandon Morrow puts up 30 saves but posts a 4.24 ERA. It’s not unheard of that he might put up these types of numbers, especially since he’s new to the role. There may be some growing pains that come with it.
Next: Cubs release 2018 broadcast schedule
The PECOTA predictions are nothing more than a “guess,” using sabermetrics as their guide. It can’t take in a breakout season because that’s something it doesn’t have to go off of. Plus, with so many free agents unsigned, these numbers are likely to change. The Cubs should win the division, even with the additions made by the Cardinals and the Brewers. But it will be close according to these numbers, even if I don’t agree with them.