Chicago Cubs: PECOTA released, Cubs get a mixed bag

Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA, a sabermetric prediction of what the future season holds. While the Chicago Cubs are picked to win the division, it’s hard to get onboard with some of these numbers.

It’s that time of year again. Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA, and it feels like we can start talking about baseball. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is BP’s standard sabermetric system and is marketed as a fantasy baseball product. But often, the numbers will line up with how a player finishes, giving some credence to the system.

In the case of the Cubs, PECOTA has them winning 89 games; five wins ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Milwaukee Brewers were six games behind the Cubs, even with all that they added this offseason. Granted, this won’t account for any of the top-tier free agents left to be signed. So these “predictions” could shift wildly if a team was to get someone like Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.